How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context

Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO2 emission leakage conditional on mitigation efforts outside the EU, we apply three economic agricultural sector models. We find that an ambitious unilateral EU mitigation policy in line with efforts needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target globally strongly affects EU ruminant production and trade balance. However, since EU farmers rank among the most greenhouse gas efficient producers worldwide, if the rest of the world were to start pursuing agricultural mitigation efforts too, economic impacts of an ambitious domestic mitigation policy get buffered and EU livestock producers could even start to benefit from a globally coordinated mitigation policy

Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardize the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of warinduced agricultural export declines under varying success of alternate transport from Ukraine given inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare effects ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly$20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes

Projections of soil loss by water erosion in Europe by 2050

Changes in future soil erosion rates are driven by climatic conditions, land use patterns, socio-economic development, farmers’ choices, and importantly modified by agro-environmental policies. This study simulates the impact of expected climatic and land use change projections on future rates of soil erosion by water (sheet and rill processes) in 2050 within the agricultural areas of the European Union and the UK, compared to a current representative baseline (2016). We used the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) adjusted at continental scale with projections of future rainfall erosivity and land use change. Future rainfall erosivity is predicted using an average composite of 19 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Projects (CMIP5) WorldClim dataset across three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Concerning future land use change and crop dynamics, we used the projections provided by the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis (CAPRI) model. Depending on the RCP scenario, we estimate a +13 %-22.5 % increase in the mean soil erosion rate in the EU and UK, rising from an estimated 3.07 t ha−1 yr−1 (2016) to between 3.46 t ha−1 yr−1 (RCP2.6 scenario) and 3.76 t ha−1 yr−1 (RCP8.5 scenario). Here, we disentangle the impact of land use change and climate change in relation to future soil losses. Projected land use change in the EU and UK indicates an overall increase of pasture coverage in place of croplands. This land use change is estimated to reduce soil erosion rates (-3%). In contrast, the increases in future rainfall erosivity (+15.7 %–25.5 %) will force important increases of soil erosion requiring further targeted intervention measures. Given that agro-environmental policies will be the most effective mechanisms to offset this future increase in soil erosion rates, this study proposes soil conservation instruments foreseen in the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to run policy scenarios. A targeted application of cover crops in soil erosion hotspots combined with limited soil disturbance measures can partially or completely mitigate the effect of climate change on soil losses. Effective mitigation of future soil losses requires policy measures for soil conservation on at least 50 % of agricultural land with erosion rates above 5 t ha−1 yr−1

Phosphorus plant removal from European agricultural land

Phosphorus (P) is an important nutrient for all plant growth and it has become a critical and often imbalanced element in modern agriculture. A proper crop fertilization is crucial for production, farmer profits, and also for ensuring sustainable agriculture. The European Commission has published the Farm to Fork (F2F) Strategy in May 2020, in which the reduction of the use of fertilizers by at least 20% is among one of the main objectives. Therefore, it is important to look for the optimal use of P in order to reduce its pollution effects but also ensure future agricultural production and food security. It is essential to estimate the P budget with the best available data at the highest possible spatial resolution. In this study, we focused on estimating the P removal from soils by crop harvest and removal of crop residues. Specifically, we attempted to estimate the P removal by taking into account the production area and productivity rates of 37 crops for 220 regions in the European Union (EU) and the UK. To estimate the P removal by crops, we included the P concentrations in plant tissues (%), the crop humidity rates, the crop residues production, and the removal rates of the crop residues. The total P removal was about 2.55 million tonnes (Mt) (± 0.23 Mt), with crop harvesting having the larger contribution (ca. 94%) compared to the crop residues removal. A Monte-Carlo analysis estimated a ± 9% uncertainty. In addition, we performed a projection of P removal from agricultural fields in 2030. By providing this picture, we aim to improve the current P balances in the EU and explore the feasibility of F2F objectives