Life cycle assessment of integrated waste management systems for alternative legacy scenarios of the London Olympic Park.

This paper presents the results of the life cycle assessment (LCA) of 10 integrated waste management systems (IWMSs) for 3 potential post-event site design scenarios of the London Olympic Park. The aim of the LCA study is to evaluate direct and indirect emissions resulting from various treatment options of municipal solid waste (MSW) annually generated on site together with avoided emissions resulting from energy, materials and nutrients recovery. IWMSs are modelled using GaBi v6.0 Product Sustainability software and results are presented based on the CML (v.Nov-10) characterisation method. The results show that IWMSs with advanced thermal treatment (ATT) and incineration with energy recovery have the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP) than IWMSs where landfill is the primary waste treatment process. This is due to higher direct emissions and lower avoided emissions from the landfill process compared to the emissions from the thermal treatment processes. LCA results demonstrate that significant environmental savings are achieved through substitution of virgin materials with recycled ones. The results of the sensitivity analysis carried out for IWMS 1 shows that increasing recycling rate by 5%, 10% and 15% compared to the baseline scenario can reduce GWP by 8%, 17% and 25% respectively. Sensitivity analysis also shows how changes in waste composition affect the overall result of the system. The outcomes of such assessments provide decision-makers with fundamental information regarding the environmental impacts of different waste treatment options necessary for sustainable waste management planning

Defining a quantitative framework for evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of mega-event projects

This paper presents a novel quantitative methodology for the evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of the whole life cycle of a mega-event project: construction and staging the event and post-event site redevelopment and operation. Within the proposed framework, a mathematical model has been developed that takes into account greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from use of transportation fuel, energy, water and construction materials used at all stages of the mega-event project. The model is applied to a case study - the London Olympic Park. Three potential post-event site design scenarios of the Park have been developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Commercial World (CW) and High Rise High Density (HRHD). A quantitative summary of results demonstrates that the highest GHG emissions associated with the actual event are almost negligible compared to those associated with the legacy phase. The highest share of emissions in the legacy phase is attributed to embodied emissions from construction materials (almost 50% for the BAU and HRHD scenarios) and emissions resulting from the transportation of residents, visitors and employees to/from the site (almost 60% for the CW scenario). The BAU scenario is the one with the lowest GHG emissions compared to the other scenarios. The results also demonstrate how post-event site design scenarios can be optimised to minimise the GHG emissions. The overall outcomes illustrate how the proposed framework can be used to support decision making process for mega-event projects planning

A Computational Model of Hepatic Energy Metabolism: Understanding Zonated Damage and Steatosis in NAFLD.

In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), lipid build-up and the resulting damage is known to occur more severely in pericentral cells. Due to the complexity of studying individual regions of the sinusoid, the causes of this zone specificity and its implications on treatment are largely ignored. In this study, a computational model of liver glucose and lipid metabolism is presented which treats the sinusoid as the repeating unit of the liver rather than the single hepatocyte. This allows for inclusion of zonated enzyme expression by splitting the sinusoid into periportal to pericentral compartments. By simulating insulin resistance (IR) and high intake diets leading to the development of steatosis in the model, we identify key differences between periportal and pericentral cells accounting for higher susceptibility to pericentral steatosis. Secondly, variation between individuals is seen in both susceptibility to steatosis and in its development across the sinusoid. Around 25% of obese individuals do not show excess liver fat, whilst 16% of lean individuals develop NAFLD. Furthermore, whilst pericentral cells tend to show higher lipid levels, variation is seen in the predominant location of steatosis from pericentral to pan-sinusoidal or azonal. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify the processes which have the largest effect on both total hepatic triglyceride levels and on the sinusoidal location of steatosis. As is seen in vivo, steatosis occurs when simulating IR in the model, predominantly due to increased uptake, along with an increase in de novo lipogenesis. Additionally, concentrations of glucose intermediates including glycerol-3-phosphate increased when simulating IR due to inhibited glycogen synthesis. Several differences between zones contributed to a higher susceptibility to steatosis in pericentral cells in the model simulations. Firstly, the periportal zonation of both glycogen synthase and the oxidative phosphorylation enzymes meant that the build-up of glucose intermediates was less severe in the periportal hepatocyte compartments. Secondly, the periportal zonation of the enzymes mediating β-oxidation and oxidative phosphorylation resulted in excess fats being metabolised more rapidly in the periportal hepatocyte compartments. Finally, the pericentral expression of de novo lipogenesis contributed to pericentral steatosis when additionally simulating the increase in sterol-regulatory element binding protein 1c (SREBP-1c) seen in NAFLD patients in vivo. The hepatic triglyceride concentration was predicted to be most sensitive to inter-individual variation in the activity of enzymes which, either directly or indirectly, determine the rate of free fatty acid (FFA) oxidation. The concentration was most strongly dependent on the rate constants for β-oxidation and oxidative phosphorylation. It also showed moderate sensitivity to the rate constants for processes which alter the allosteric inhibition of β-oxidation by acetyl-CoA. The predominant sinusoidal location of steatosis meanwhile was most sensitive variations in the zonation of proteins mediating FFA uptake or triglyceride release as very low density lipoproteins (VLDL). Neither the total hepatic concentration nor the location of steatosis showed strong sensitivity to variations in the lipogenic rate constants

Liver function as an engineering system

Process Systems Engineering has tackled a wide range of problems including manufacturing, the environment, and advanced materials design. Here we discuss how tools can be deployed to tackle medical problems which involve complex chemical transformations and spatial phenomena looking in particular at the liver system, the body's chemical factory. We show how an existing model has been developed to model distributed behavior necessary to predict the behavior of drugs for treating liver disease. The model has been used to predict the effects of suppression of de novo lipogenesis, stimulation of β-oxidation and a combination of the two. A reduced model has also been used to explore the prediction of behavior of hormones in the blood stream controlling glucose levels to ensure that levels are kept within safe bounds using interval methods. The predictions are made resulting from uncertainty in two key parameters with oscillating input resulting from regular feeding

Terminal valuations, growth rates and the implied cost of capital

This article is published with open access at Springerlink.comWe develop a model based on the notion that prices lead earnings, allowing for a simultaneous estimation of the implied growth rate and the cost of equity capital for US industrial sectors. The major difference between our approach and that in prior literature is that ours avoids the necessity to make assumptions about terminal values and consequently about future growth rates. In fact, growth rates are an endogenous variable, which is estimated simultaneously with the implied cost of equity capital. Since we require only 1-year-ahead forecasts of earnings and no assumptions about dividend payouts, our methodology allows us to estimate ex ante aggregate growth and risk premia over a larger sample of firms than has previously been possible. Our estimate of the risk premium being between 3.1 and 3.9 % is at the lower end of recent estimates, reflecting the inclusion of these short-lived companies. Our estimate of the long run growth is from 4.2 to 4.7 %

Mathematical models for immunology:current state of the art and future research directions

The advances in genetics and biochemistry that have taken place over the last 10 years led to significant advances in experimental and clinical immunology. In turn, this has led to the development of new mathematical models to investigate qualitatively and quantitatively various open questions in immunology. In this study we present a review of some research areas in mathematical immunology that evolved over the last 10 years. To this end, we take a step-by-step approach in discussing a range of models derived to study the dynamics of both the innate and immune responses at the molecular, cellular and tissue scales. To emphasise the use of mathematics in modelling in this area, we also review some of the mathematical tools used to investigate these models. Finally, we discuss some future trends in both experimental immunology and mathematical immunology for the upcoming years