Modeling the Dynamics of Long-Term Variability of Hydroclimatic Processes

The stochastic analysis, modeling, and simulation of climatic and hydrologic processes such as precipitation, streamflow, and sea surface temperature have usually been based on assumed stationarity or randomness of the process under consideration. However, empirical evidence of many hydroclimatic data shows temporal variability involving trends, oscillatory behavior, and sudden shifts. While many studies have been made for detecting and testing the statistical significance of these special characteristics, the probabilistic framework for modeling the temporal dynamics of such processes appears to be lacking. In this paper a family of stochastic models that can be used to capture the dynamics of abrupt shifts in hydroclimatic time series is proposed. The applicability of such ‘‘shifting mean models’ ’ are illustrated by using time series data of annual Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) indices and annual streamflows of the Niger River. 1

A Century Searching for the Neurons Necessary for Wakefulness

Wakefulness is necessary for consciousness, and impaired wakefulness is a symptom of many diseases. The neural circuits that maintain wakefulness remain incompletely understood, as do the mechanisms of impaired consciousness in many patients. In contrast to the influential concept of a diffuse “reticular activating system,” the past century of neuroscience research has identified a focal region of the upper brainstem that, when damaged, causes coma. This region contains diverse neuronal populations with different axonal projections, neurotransmitters, and genetic identities. Activating some of these populations promotes wakefulness, but it remains unclear which specific neurons are necessary for sustaining consciousness. In parallel, pharmacological evidence has indicated a role for special neurotransmitters, including hypocretin/orexin, histamine, norepinephrine, serotonin, dopamine, adenosine and acetylcholine. However, genetically targeted experiments have indicated that none of these neurotransmitters or the neurons producing them are individually necessary for maintaining wakefulness. In this review, we emphasize the need to determine the specific subset of brainstem neurons necessary for maintaining arousal. Accomplishing this will enable more precise mapping of wakefulness circuitry, which will be useful in developing therapies for patients with coma and other disorders of arousal

Nominal or Real? The Impact of Regional Price Levels on Satisfaction with Life

According to economic theory, real income, i.e., nominal income adjusted for purchasing power, should be the relevant source of life satisfaction. Previous work, however, has only studied the impact of inflation adjusted nominal income and not taken into account regional differences in purchasing power. Therefore, we use a novel data set to study how regional price levels affect satisfaction with life. The data set comprises about 7 million data points that are used to construct a price level for each of the 428 administrative districts in Germany. We estimate pooled OLS and ordered probit models that include a comprehensive set of individual level, time-varying and time-invariant control variables as well as control variables that capture district heterogeneity other than the price level. Our results show that higher price levels significantly reduce life satisfaction. Furthermore, we find that a higher price level tends to induce a larger loss in life satisfaction than a corresponding decrease in nominal income. A formal test of neutrality of money, however, does not reject neutrality of money. Our results provide an argument in favor of regional indexation of government transfer payments such as social welfare benefits

Irf4 is a positional and functional candidate gene for the control of serum IgM levels in the mouse

Natural IgM are involved in numerous immunological functions but the genetic factors that control the homeostasis of its secretion and upholding remain unknown. Prompted by the finding that C57BL/6 mice had significantly lower serum levels of IgM when compared with BALB/c mice, we performed a genome-wide screen and found that the level of serum IgM was controlled by a QTL on chromosome 13 reaching the highest level of association at marker D13Mit266 (LOD score¼3.54). This locus was named IgMSC1 and covered a region encompassing the interferon-regulatory factor 4 gene (Irf4). The number of splenic mature B cells in C57BL/6 did not differ from BALB/c mice but we found that low serum levels of IgM in C57BL/6 mice correlated with lower frequency of IgM-secreting cells in the spleen and in the peritoneal cavity. These results suggested that C57BL/6 mice have lower efficiency in late B-cell maturation, a process that is highly impaired in Irf4 knockout mice. In fact, we also found reduced Irf4 gene expression in B cells of C57BL/6 mice. Thus, we propose Irf4 as a candidate for the IgMSC1 locus, which controls IgM homeostatic levels at the level of B-cell terminal differentiation

Two New Loci for Body-Weight Regulation Identified in a Joint Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Early-Onset Extreme Obesity in French and German Study Groups

Meta-analyses of population-based genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in adults have recently led to the detection of new genetic loci for obesity. Here we aimed to discover additional obesity loci in extremely obese children and adolescents. We also investigated if these results generalize by estimating the effects of these obesity loci in adults and in population-based samples including both children and adults. We jointly analysed two GWAS of 2,258 individuals and followed-up the best, according to lowest p-values, 44 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) from 21 genomic regions in 3,141 individuals. After this DISCOVERY step, we explored if the findings derived from the extremely obese children and adolescents (10 SNPs from 5 genomic regions) generalized to (i) the population level and (ii) to adults by genotyping another 31,182 individuals (GENERALIZATION step). Apart from previously identified FTO, MC4R, and TMEM18, we detected two new loci for obesity: one in SDCCAG8 (serologically defined colon cancer antigen 8 gene; p = 1.85610 x 10(-8) in the DISCOVERY step) and one between TNKS (tankyrase, TRF1-interacting ankyrin-related ADP-ribose polymerase gene) and MSRA (methionine sulfoxide reductase A gene; p = 4.84 x 10(-7)), the latter finding being limited to children and adolescents as demonstrated in the GENERALIZATION step. The odds ratios for early-onset obesity were estimated at similar to 1.10 per risk allele for both loci. Interestingly, the TNKS/MSRA locus has recently been found to be associated with adult waist circumference. In summary, we have completed a meta-analysis of two GWAS which both focus on extremely obese children and adolescents and replicated our findings in a large followed-up data set. We observed that genetic variants in or near FTO, MC4R, TMEM18, SDCCAG8, and TNKS/MSRA were robustly associated with early-onset obesity. We conclude that the currently known major common variants related to obesity overlap to a substantial degree between children and adults