8 research outputs found

    Self-optimization, community stability, and fluctuations in two individual-based models of biological coevolution

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    We compare and contrast the long-time dynamical properties of two individual-based models of biological coevolution. Selection occurs via multispecies, stochastic population dynamics with reproduction probabilities that depend nonlinearly on the population densities of all species resident in the community. New species are introduced through mutation. Both models are amenable to exact linear stability analysis, and we compare the analytic results with large-scale kinetic Monte Carlo simulations, obtaining the population size as a function of an average interspecies interaction strength. Over time, the models self-optimize through mutation and selection to approximately maximize a community fitness function, subject only to constraints internal to the particular model. If the interspecies interactions are randomly distributed on an interval including positive values, the system evolves toward self-sustaining, mutualistic communities. In contrast, for the predator-prey case the matrix of interactions is antisymmetric, and a nonzero population size must be sustained by an external resource. Time series of the diversity and population size for both models show approximate 1/f noise and power-law distributions for the lifetimes of communities and species. For the mutualistic model, these two lifetime distributions have the same exponent, while their exponents are different for the predator-prey model. The difference is probably due to greater resilience toward mass extinctions in the food-web like communities produced by the predator-prey model.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figures. Discussion of early-time dynamics added. J. Math. Biol., in pres

    Inter- and Intra-Observer Variability and the Effect of Experience in Cine-MRI for Adhesion Detection.

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    Cine-MRI for adhesion detection is a promising novel modality that can help the large group of patients developing pain after abdominal surgery. Few studies into its diagnostic accuracy are available, and none address observer variability. This retrospective study explores the inter- and intra-observer variability, diagnostic accuracy, and the effect of experience. A total of 15 observers with a variety of experience reviewed 61 sagittal cine-MRI slices, placing box annotations with a confidence score at locations suspect for adhesions. Five observers reviewed the slices again one year later. Inter- and intra-observer variability are quantified using Fleiss' (inter) and Cohen's (intra) κ and percentage agreement. Diagnostic accuracy is quantified with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis based on a consensus standard. Inter-observer Fleiss' κ values range from 0.04 to 0.34, showing poor to fair agreement. High general and cine-MRI experience led to significantly (p < 0.001) better agreement among observers. The intra-observer results show Cohen's κ values between 0.37 and 0.53 for all observers, except one with a low κ of -0.11. Group AUC scores lie between 0.66 and 0.72, with individual observers reaching 0.78. This study confirms that cine-MRI can diagnose adhesions, with respect to a radiologist consensus panel and shows that experience improves reading cine-MRI. Observers without specific experience adapt to this modality quickly after a short online tutorial. Observer agreement is fair at best and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores leave room for improvement. Consistently interpreting this novel modality needs further research, for instance, by developing reporting guidelines or artificial intelligence-based methods

    Inflammatory responses in SARS-CoV-2 associated Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome and Kawasaki Disease in children: An observational study

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    Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) is a severe inflammatory disease in children related to SARS-CoV-2 with multisystem involvement including marked cardiac dysfunction and clinical symptoms that can resemble Kawasaki Disease (KD). We hypothesized that MIS-C and KD might have commonalities as well as unique inflammatory responses and studied these responses in both diseases. In total, fourteen children with MIS-C (n=8) and KD (n=6) were included in the period of March-June 2020. Clinical and routine blood parameters, cardiac follow-up, SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies and CD4+ T-cell responses, and cytokine-profiles were determined in both groups. In contrast to KD patients, all MIS-C patients had positive Spike protein-specific CD3(+) CD4(+) T-cell responses. MIS-C and KD patients displayed marked hyper-inflammation with high expression of serum cytokines, including the drug-targetable interleukin (IL)-6 and IFN-gamma associated chemokines CXCL9, 10 and 11, which decreased at follow-up. No statistical differences were observed between groups. Clinical outcomes were all favourable without cardiac sequelae at 6 months follow-up. In conclusion, MIS-C and KD-patients both displayed cytokine-associated hyper-inflammation with several high levels of drug-targetable cytokines
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