Privatization and growth: natural experiment of European economies in transition

European ex-socialist countries’ experience is exploited for two difference-in-differences analysis: effects of a) transition to a market economy, and b) accession to the European Union (EU) on income. Many countries adopting regime change simultaneously; and ten of them joining the EU mostly in 2004 provides a rich setting. Post-privatization growth varies by ex-ante institutional settings - whether they existed as separate countries before 1991 or came into being by break-up of a larger block - and by ex-post aspiration of (and then) joining the EU. We show starkly how unsuccessful was transition to a market economy - it increased income gap of most of them from the US for at least 13 years. The paper shows institutions are important/critical for growth in middle- or high-income countries of Europe also; and better institutions enhance the role of one (rather than all) proximate factor for growth. Using growth accounting, the growth effects are mostly driven by human capital (rather than by TFP). This paper a) presents a nuanced perspective on privatization’s effect on growth, and b) identifies human capital to be the proximate factor through which the fundamental factor of institutions promotes growth

Uncertainty and the Double Dividend Hypothesis

This paper examines the double dividend hypothesis in the presence of labour income uncertainty. Empirical evidence shows that uncertainty over labour income is particularly significant in developing, while not negligible in developed countries. Under uncertainty, and assuming incomplete capital markets, the tax system plays a role in providing social insurance and a green tax reform influences its effectiveness. We show that the increase in environmental tax reduces consumption risk while the balanced budget decrease in labour income tax increases income risk. We find that the total welfare effect of a green tax reform differs substantially from the case of certainty. The critical parameters determining the existence of a second dividend are the lump sum transfers, the relative substitutability of the two goods for leisure and the initial tax rates relative to their optimal that determine also the response of labour supply to a change in the tax mix

Estimated Values of Carbon Sequestration Resulting from Forest Management Scenarios

Chapter 3 of "The Valuation of Ecosystem Services from Farms and Forests: Informing a systematic approach to quantifying benefits of conservation programs.

Disease, Microdams and Natural Resources in Tigray, Ethiopia: Impacts on Productivity and Labour Supplies

We examine the effects of water microdams and ensuing waterborne diseases on household decisions in Tigray, Ethiopia, where the government implemented a water resource development programme two decades ago. We find microdams increase productivity of both fuelwood collection and crop production, but the costs of these dams to households can be significant. In villages close to dams, disease prevalence is higher and all household labour categories spend more time sick, and more time is spent by male and female adults caring for sick family members. These can cost the household anywhere in the region of 150-250 Birr per season, depending on the type of labour diversion and the productivity of labour. Males are most significant here. Removing their time from production results in 40-60 per cent higher productivity and income losses compared to diversion of female labour. Sick households also spend significantly more money on health care, especially when male and female adults are sick.

Ethanol production, food and forests

This paper investigates the direct and indirect impacts of ethanol production on land use, deforestation and food production. A partial equilibrium model of a national economy with two sectors and two regions, one of which includes a residual forest, is developed. It analyses how an exogenous increase in the ethanol price affcts input allocation (land and labor) between sectors (energy crop and food). Three potential effects are identified. First, the standard and well-documented effect of direct land competition between rival uses increases deforestation and decreases food production. Second, an indirect displacement of food production across regions, provoked by a shift in the price of food, increases deforestation and reduces the total output of the food sector. Finally, labor mobility between sectors and regions tends to decrease food production but also deforestation. The overall impact of ethanol production on forest conversion is ambiguous, providing a number of interesting pointers to further, empirical research