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Confidence: Its role in dependability cases for risk assessment
Society is increasingly requiring quantitative assessment of risk and associated dependability cases. Informally, a dependability case comprises some reasoning, based on assumptions and evidence, that supports a dependability claim at a particular level of confidence. In this paper we argue that a quantitative assessment of claim confidence is necessary for proper assessment of risk. We discuss the way in which confidence depends upon uncertainty about the underpinnings of the dependability case (truth of assumptions, correctness of reasoning, strength of evidence), and propose that probability is the appropriate measure of uncertainty. We discuss some of the obstacles to quantitative assessment of confidence (issues of composability of subsystem claims; of the multi-dimensional, multi-attribute nature of dependability claims; of the difficult role played by dependence between different kinds of evidence, assumptions, etc). We show that, even in simple cases, the confidence in a claim arising from a dependability case can be surprisingly low
What makes nature-based interventions for mental health successful?
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available via the link in this record.This paper looks at the work undertaken to provide nature-based interventions in the south west of England under the project ‘A Dose of Nature’. It summarises the evidence for health and wellbeing benefits of regular engagement with natural outdoor environments, presents the findings of the project, and discusses of some of the key factors involved in the development of successful nature-based interventions
Evidence for Partial Taylor Relaxation from Changes in Magnetic Geometry and Energy during a Solar Flare
Solar flares are powered by energy stored in the coronal magnetic field, a
portion of which is released when the field reconfigures into a lower energy
state. Investigation of sunspot magnetic field topology during flare activity
is useful to improve our understanding of flaring processes. Here we
investigate the deviation of the non-linear field configuration from that of
the linear and potential configurations, and study the free energy available
leading up to and after a flare. The evolution of the magnetic field in NOAA
region 10953 was examined using data from Hinode/SOT-SP, over a period of 12
hours leading up to and after a GOES B1.0 flare. Previous work on this region
found pre- and post-flare changes in photospheric vector magnetic field
parameters of flux elements outside the primary sunspot. 3D geometry was thus
investigated using potential, linear force-free, and non-linear force-free
field extrapolations in order to fully understand the evolution of the field
lines. Traced field line geometrical and footpoint orientation differences show
that the field does not completely relax to a fully potential or linear
force-free state after the flare. Magnetic and free magnetic energies increase
significantly ~ 6.5-2.5 hours before the flare by ~ 10^31 erg. After the flare,
the non-linear force-free magnetic energy and free magnetic energies decrease
but do not return to pre-flare 'quiet' values. The post-flare non-linear
force-free field configuration is closer (but not equal) to that of the linear
force-free field configuration than a potential one. However, the small degree
of similarity suggests that partial Taylor relaxation has occurred over a time
scale of ~ 3-4 hours.Comment: Accepted for Publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics. 11 pages, 11
figure
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Stochastic modelling of the effects of interdependencies between critical infrastructure
An approach to Quantitative Interdependency Analysis, in the context of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures, is presented in this paper. A Discrete state–space, Continuous–time, Stochastic Process models the operation of critical infrastructure, taking interdependencies into account. Of primary interest are the implications of both model detail (that is, level of model abstraction) and model parameterisation for the study of dependencies. Both of these factors are observed to affect the distribution of cascade–sizes within and across infrastructure
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Toward a Formalism for Conservative Claims about the Dependability of Software-Based Systems
In recent work, we have argued for a formal treatment of confidence about the claims made in dependability cases for software-based systems. The key idea underlying this work is "the inevitability of uncertainty": It is rarely possible to assert that a claim about safety or reliability is true with certainty. Much of this uncertainty is epistemic in nature, so it seems inevitable that expert judgment will continue to play an important role in dependability cases. Here, we consider a simple case where an expert makes a claim about the probability of failure on demand (pfd) of a subsystem of a wider system and is able to express his confidence about that claim probabilistically. An important, but difficult, problem then is how such subsystem (claim, confidence) pairs can be propagated through a dependability case for a wider system, of which the subsystems are components. An informal way forward is to justify, at high confidence, a strong claim, and then, conservatively, only claim something much weaker: "I'm 99 percent confident that the pfd is less than 10-5, so it's reasonable to be 100 percent confident that it is less than 10-3." These conservative pfds of subsystems can then be propagated simply through the dependability case of the wider system. In this paper, we provide formal support for such reasoning
Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001-2010)
The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood and
significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration,
energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high
resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges
over the whole course of many flares in order to build an understanding of
these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and
space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary
motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW)
alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares >X1 GOES X-ray
classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a
review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010,
inclusive, that finds: (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3,407 days considered (6.5%
duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically
last 2-8 days; (2) 56% of flares >X1 were caught, occurring in 19% of MFW days;
(3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been
achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier;
(4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS)
verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical
flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre
probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physic
An investigation of Fe XV emission lines in solar flare spectra
Previously, large discrepancies have been found between theory and
observation for Fe XV emission line ratios in solar flare spectra covering the
224-327 A wavelength range, obtained by the Naval Research Laboratory's S082A
instrument on board Skylab. These discrepancies have been attributed to either
errors in the adopted atomic data or the presence of additional atomic
processes not included in the modelling, such as fluorescence. However our
analysis of these plus other S082A flare observations (the latter containing Fe
XV transitions between 321-482 A), performed using the most recent Fe XV atomic
physics calculations in conjunction with a CHIANTI synthetic flare spectrum,
indicate that blending of the lines is primarily responsible for the
discrepancies. As a result, most Fe XV lines cannot be employed as electron
density diagnostics for solar flares, at least at the spectral resolution of
S082A and similar instruments (i.e. ~ 0.1 A). An exception is the intensity
ratio I(321.8 A)/I(327.0 A), which appears to provide good estimates of the
electron density at this spectral resolution.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, Astronomy & Astrophysics, in pres
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