Fate of the Universe, Age of the Universe, Dark Matter, and the Decaying Vacuum Energy

It is shown that in the cosmological models based on a vacuum energy decaying as a^{-2}, where a is the scale factor of the universe, the fate of the universe in regard to whether it will collapse in future or expand forever is determined not by the curvature constant k but by an effective curvature constant k_{eff}. It is argued that a closed universe with k=1 may expand forever, in other words simulate the expansion dynamics of a flat or an open universe because of the possibility that k_{eff}=0 or -1, respectively. Two such models, in one of which the vacuum does not interact with matter and in another of which it does, are studied. It is shown that the vacuum equation of state p_{vac}= -\rho_{vac} may be realized in a decaying vacuum cosmology provided the vacuum interacts wuth matter. The optical depths for gravitational lensing as a function of the matter density and other parameters in the models are calculated at a source redshift of 2. The age of the universe is discussed and shown to be compatible with the new Hipparcos lower limit of 11Gyr. The possibility that a time-varying vacuum energy may serve as dark matter is suggested.Comment: AAS LaTex, 29 pages, published in the Astrophysical Journal, 520, 45, 199

Belief, Credence and Statistical Evidence

According to the Rational Threshold View, a rational agent believes p if and only if her credence in p is equal to or greater than a certain threshold. One of the most serious challenges for this view is the problem of statistical evidence: statistical evidence is often not sufficient to make an outright belief rational, no matter how probable the target proposition is given such evidence. This indicates that rational belief is not as sensitive to statistical evidence as rational credence. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we argue that, in addition to playing a decisive role in rationalizing outright belief, non-statistical evidence also plays a preponderant role in rationalizing credence. More precisely, when both types of evidence are present in a context, non-statistical evidence should receive a heavier weight than statistical evidence in determining rational credence. Second, based on this result, we argue that a modified version of the Rational Threshold View can avoid the problem of statistical evidence. We conclude by suggesting a possible explanation of the varying sensitivity to different types of evidence for belief and credence based on the respective aims of these attitudes

Surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever in wild boar – a comprehensive evaluation study to ensure powerful surveillance

Surveillance of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) should not only focus on livestock, but must also include wild boar. To prevent disease transmission into commercial pig herds, it is therefore vital to have knowledge about the disease status in wild boar. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in wild boar and compared them with the currently implemented conventional approach. The evaluation protocol was designed using the EVA tool, a decision support tool to help in the development of an economic and epidemiological evaluation protocol for surveillance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the surveillance strategies, we investigated their sensitivity and timeliness. Acceptability was analysed and finally, the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance strategies was determined. We developed 69 surveillance strategies for comparative evaluation between the existing approach and the novel proposed strategies. Sampling only within sub-adults resulted in a better acceptability and timeliness than the currently implemented strategy. Strategies that were completely based on passive surveillance performance did not achieve the desired detection probability of 95%. In conclusion, the results of the study suggest that risk-based approaches can be an option to design more effective CSF surveillance strategies in wild boar

A Mission to Explore the Pioneer Anomaly

The Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft yielded the most precise navigation in deep space to date. These spacecraft had exceptional acceleration sensitivity. However, analysis of their radio-metric tracking data has consistently indicated that at heliocentric distances of $\sim 20-70$ astronomical units, the orbit determinations indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, Doppler frequency drift. The drift is a blue-shift, uniformly changing with a rate of $\sim(5.99 \pm 0.01)\times 10^{-9}$ Hz/s, which can be interpreted as a constant sunward acceleration of each particular spacecraft of $a_P = (8.74 \pm 1.33)\times 10^{-10} {\rm m/s^2}$. This signal has become known as the Pioneer anomaly. The inability to explain the anomalous behavior of the Pioneers with conventional physics has contributed to growing discussion about its origin. There is now an increasing number of proposals that attempt to explain the anomaly outside conventional physics. This progress emphasizes the need for a new experiment to explore the detected signal. Furthermore, the recent extensive efforts led to the conclusion that only a dedicated experiment could ultimately determine the nature of the found signal. We discuss the Pioneer anomaly and present the next steps towards an understanding of its origin. We specifically focus on the development of a mission to explore the Pioneer Anomaly in a dedicated experiment conducted in deep space.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures; invited talk given at the 2005 ESLAB Symposium "Trends in Space Science and Cosmic Vision 2020", 19-21 April 2005, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherland

A detailed study of quasinormal frequencies of the Kerr black hole

We compute the quasinormal frequencies of the Kerr black hole using a continued fraction method. The continued fraction method first proposed by Leaver is still the only known method stable and accurate for the numerical determination of the Kerr quasinormal frequencies. We numerically obtain not only the slowly but also the rapidly damped quasinormal frequencies and analyze the peculiar behavior of these frequencies at the Kerr limit. We also calculate the algebraically special frequency first identified by Chandrasekhar and confirm that it coincide with the $n=8$ quasinormal frequency only at the Schwarzschild limit.Comment: REVTEX, 15 pages, 7 eps figure

Black Hole Decay and Quantum Instantons

We study the analytic structure of the S-matrix which is obtained from the reduced Wheeler-DeWitt wave function describing spherically symmetric gravitational collapse of massless scalar fields. The complex simple poles in the S-matrix lead to the wave functions that satisfy the same boundary condition as quasi-normal modes of a black hole, and correspond to the bounded states of the Euclidean Wheeler-DeWitt equation. These wave function are interpreted as quantum instantons.Comment: RevTex, 7 pages, no figure; The wave functions of gr-qc/9912115 are newly interpreted as quantum instantons describing a black hole decay. Replaced by the version to be published in Phys. Rev. D, in which the boundary condition on the apparent horizon is clarifie

Relativistic anisotropic charged fluid spheres with varying cosmological constant

Static spherically symmetric anisotropic source has been studied for the Einstein-Maxwell field equations assuming the erstwhile cosmological constant $\Lambda$ to be a space-variable scalar, viz., $\Lambda = \Lambda(r)$. Two cases have been examined out of which one reduces to isotropic sphere. The solutions thus obtained are shown to be electromagnetic in origin as a particular case. It is also shown that the generally used pure charge condition, viz., $\rho + p_r = 0$ is not always required for constructing electromagnetic mass models.Comment: 15 pages, 3 eps figure

Evolution of the Scale Factor with a Variable Cosmological Term

Evolution of the scale factor a(t) in Friedmann models (those with zero pressure and a constant cosmological term Lambda) is well understood, and elegantly summarized in the review of Felten and Isaacman [Rev. Mod. Phys. 58, 689 (1986)]. Developments in particle physics and inflationary theory, however, increasingly indicate that Lambda ought to be treated as a dynamical quantity. We revisit the evolution of the scale factor with a variable Lambda-term, and also generalize the treatment to include nonzero pressure. New solutions are obtained and evaluated using a variety of observational criteria. Existing arguments for the inevitability of a big bang (ie., an initial state with a=0) are substantially weakened, and can be evaded in some cases with Lambda_0 (the present value of Lambda) well below current experimental limits.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures (not included), LaTeX, uses Phys Rev D style files (revtex.cls, revtex.sty, aps.sty, aps10.sty, prabib.sty). To appear in Phys Rev