Trends and driving forces of China's virtual land consumption and trade

Land resources are important for China’s rapid economic development, especially for food and construction. China’s land resources are under tremendous pressures, and therefore land use is increasingly displaced to other parts of the world. This study analyses the evolution and driving forces of China’s land consumption from 1995 to 2015. The main results show that China’s land footprint increased from 8.8% of the global land resources under human use in 1995 to 15.7% in 2015. China’s domestic land resources are mainly used for serving domestic consumption. Moreover, China needs to import virtual land from foreign countries to satisfy 30.8% of its land demand. Among the three land use types of cropland, grassland and forests, grassland had the largest fraction in China’s land footprint from 1995 to 2000, while forest has become the largest one since 2000. China’s virtual land trade experienced a sharp increase in net imports from 9.4E + 04 km2 in 1995 to 3.4E + 06 km2 in 2015. Observing China’s virtual land network by a cluster analysis, this study concludes that China keeps tight relationships with Australia, Japan, Brazil and Korea for its cropland consumption, and Canada, USA, Mexico, Australia, Korea and Japan are relevant for its grassland consumption. In addition, decomposition analysis results show that affluence is the major driving factor for China’s land consumption, while changes in land use intensity could mitigate some of the related effects. Lastly, policy recommendations are proposed so that China can move toward sustainable land management

Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry

A number of recent economic modelling studies have attempted to analyse resource efficiency and the circular economy. However, modelling analysis in this area is relatively underdeveloped. In particular, many CGE models are unable to provide significant insight given their aggregated sectoral coverage. Here we describe the development of the Environmental Global Applied General Equilibrium (ENGAGEmaterials) model created to consider the economic and sectoral effects of potential policies on a circular economy and resource efficiency, which affect materials and resources at the stages of extraction, production and recycling. Our policy scope is global with a special emphasis on China and Europe, as both regions have dedicated policies in place and indicate their willingness to take the lead. The case of steel is relevant as it is a key material for all economies across the world and offers a range of interesting features for circularity and sustainability. ENGAGE-materials models iron ore mining, primary production of iron and steel, secondary production of iron and steel, and steel scrap recycling at the global level. We utilise this technology rich framework to provide preliminary results on scenarios comprising economic insights into a saturation effect and straightforward policy such as doubling the availability of secondary steel

Steel in a circular economy: global implications of a green shift in China

China is increasingly known for its ambitions towards an ‘ecological civilisation’ and a circular economy. Our article assesses the implications of an accelerated shift towards steel recycling in China. Given the relevance of steel for development worldwide as well as its environmental intensity, any such shift is likely to have implications for competitiveness in China and beyond. Recent findings suggest that China could take advantage of an increasing availability of obsolete steel scrap in the coming decades, moving towards more circular, and potentially greener, steel production. We assess such industrial restructuring from an economic perspective and address the competitiveness of China relative to other developing and industrialised regions. The analysis uses a novel global economy-wide modelling framework (ENGAGE-materials) to assess the aggregate and sector-level impacts of different scrap use options in China in the 2019–2030 time frame. The results show moderate GDP gains for China of cumulated USD 589 billion in GDP gains by 2030 despite a replacement of primary steel capacity. A more comprehensive industrial policy mix aimed at improved recycling practices and more adaptive downstream sectors could increase gains to USD 819 billion. The international implications are mixed, with losses for iron ore producers (Australia, Brazil and India) and gains for most developing countries benefiting from lower steel prices. Another result is an increasing demand for coal in electricity production if such a shift wouldn’t be aligned with an accelerated energy transition towards low carbon pathways. We discuss policy implications of such alignment, potential co-benefits, and a need for green international partnerships

Taxing construction minerals: a contribution to a resource-efficient Europe

This paper focuses on market incentives by the introduction of a construction minerals tax as an example of a resource tax. Currently, various European countries levy taxes or duties on primary construction materials, but a harmonisation of the taxation is not planned. Provided the tax rate has a perceptible price effect, the taxation of a resource can foster a demand management or the reduction of the raw material consumption and the governance of side and secondary effects. A construction minerals tax can target the stimulation of demand for secondary raw materials and recycled products, and—because the reuse of construction and demolition waste has technical limits—a stronger emphasis on the conservation of buildings and infrastructures. This has positive effects on the environment and the innovation efforts and it helps to internalise externalities. Germany, used as a case study in this paper, does not raise any taxes on other raw materials than energy sources at the federal level. For this reason, potential impacts of the introduction of a construction minerals tax will be explored and the results of a simulation will be provided

Extrapolation or saturation – revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling

The contemporary debate considering the use of natural resources in economic growth centres around the concept of ‘decoupling’ driven through improvements in resource efficiency. Many studies extrapolate future demand from a short time series of previous years. However, we believe there should be greater attention on the underlying demand assumptions and the possibility of long-term changes. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with a potential saturation in material use as a result of countries moving through stages of development over decades from early industrialisation, over mass production and into a mature stage. An observation of such saturation is relevant for global environmental change as future demand for resources could be lower than currently expected, leading to less associated environmental pressures. In particular, emerging economies are undergoing changing growth patterns, and their future resource use may be significantly lower than contemporary analysis suggests. This paper combines the analytical strands of resource economics and material flow analysis. It investigates both material-specific demand and stock build-up trends over an extended time horizon of a century. Four materials (steel, cement, aluminium and copper) are analysed applying an indicator called ‘Apparent Domestic Consumption’ (ADC) and using international trade data for four industrialised countries (Germany, Japan, UK, USA) together with China as the most preeminent emerging economy. Our results confirm the occurrence of a saturation effect for most materials considered. While the evidence is strong for the per capita apparent consumption of steel, copper and cement in the four industrialised countries, it is somewhat weaker for aluminium. Also, such saturation in material use can start at different income levels, with the saturation beginning to occur relatively early for steel and cement ($12,000 GDP/capita) and later for copper ($20,000 GDP/capita). The results suggest a time gap of around thirty+ years from the take-off of large-scale adoption of one type of material and any saturation occurring. We also shed light on the build-up of stocks in the economy, where our findings suggest there is a delayed saturation of at least twenty years compared to apparent consumption depending on the lifetimes of capital goods. With regard to China, a demand saturation for steel and copper has already started to occur, and our analysis suggests such saturation will soon take place for cement. These findings provide a more moderate outlook on China’s future material demand compared to an extrapolation of recent dynamics. Our new insights on the nexus between economic growth, development stages and the use of natural resources have implications for the decoupling debate and for investments into commodities. From a wider environmental policy perspective, one may expect China and other emerging economies to achieve a saturation effect soon and therefore also peak their industrial emissions of greenhouse gases, supporting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

Significance of Cuscutain, a cysteine protease from Cuscuta reflexa, in host-parasite interactions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plant infestation with parasitic weeds like <it>Cuscuta reflexa </it>induces morphological as well as biochemical changes in the host and the parasite. These modifications could be caused by a change in protein or gene activity. Using a comparative macroarray approach <it>Cuscuta </it>genes specifically upregulated at the host attachment site were identified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One of the infestation specific <it>Cuscuta </it>genes encodes a cysteine protease. The protein and its intrinsic inhibitory peptide were heterologously expressed, purified and biochemically characterized. The haustoria specific enzyme was named cuscutain in accordance with similar proteins from other plants, e.g. papaya. The role of cuscutain and its inhibitor during the host parasite interaction was studied by external application of an inhibitor suspension, which induced a significant reduction of successful infection events.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study provides new information about molecular events during the parasitic plant - host interaction. Inhibition of cuscutain cysteine proteinase could provide means for antagonizing parasitic plants.</p

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises