Inferring Networks of Substitutable and Complementary Products

In a modern recommender system, it is important to understand how products relate to each other. For example, while a user is looking for mobile phones, it might make sense to recommend other phones, but once they buy a phone, we might instead want to recommend batteries, cases, or chargers. These two types of recommendations are referred to as substitutes and complements: substitutes are products that can be purchased instead of each other, while complements are products that can be purchased in addition to each other. Here we develop a method to infer networks of substitutable and complementary products. We formulate this as a supervised link prediction task, where we learn the semantics of substitutes and complements from data associated with products. The primary source of data we use is the text of product reviews, though our method also makes use of features such as ratings, specifications, prices, and brands. Methodologically, we build topic models that are trained to automatically discover topics from text that are successful at predicting and explaining such relationships. Experimentally, we evaluate our system on the Amazon product catalog, a large dataset consisting of 9 million products, 237 million links, and 144 million reviews.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Analysis of Computer Science Communities Based on DBLP

It is popular nowadays to bring techniques from bibliometrics and scientometrics into the world of digital libraries to analyze the collaboration patterns and explore mechanisms which underlie community development. In this paper we use the DBLP data to investigate the author's scientific career and provide an in-depth exploration of some of the computer science communities. We compare them in terms of productivity, population stability and collaboration trends.Besides we use these features to compare the sets of topranked conferences with their lower ranked counterparts.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 6 table

Variational Sequential Monte Carlo

Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior. In this paper we present a new approximating family of distributions, the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) family, and show how to optimize it in variational inference. VSMC melds variational inference (VI) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), providing practitioners with flexible, accurate, and powerful Bayesian inference. The VSMC family is a variational family that can approximate the posterior arbitrarily well, while still allowing for efficient optimization of its parameters. We demonstrate its utility on state space models, stochastic volatility models for financial data, and deep Markov models of brain neural circuits

Exploring Time-Sensitive Variational Bayesian Inference LDA for Social Media Data

There is considerable interest among both researchers and the mass public in understanding the topics of discussion on social media as they occur over time. Scholars have thoroughly analysed sampling-based topic modelling approaches for various text corpora including social media; however, another LDA topic modelling implementation—Variational Bayesian (VB)—has not been well studied, despite its known efficiency and its adaptability to the volume and dynamics of social media data. In this paper, we examine the performance of the VB-based topic modelling approach for producing coherent topics, and further, we extend the VB approach by proposing a novel time-sensitive Variational Bayesian implementation, denoted as TVB. Our newly proposed TVB approach incorporates time so as to increase the quality of the generated topics. Using a Twitter dataset covering 8 events, our empirical results show that the coherence of the topics in our TVB model is improved by the integration of time. In particular, through a user study, we find that our TVB approach generates less mixed topics than state-of-the-art topic modelling approaches. Moreover, our proposed TVB approach can more accurately estimate topical trends, making it particularly suitable to assist end-users in tracking emerging topics on social media

Combining Thesaurus Knowledge and Probabilistic Topic Models

In this paper we present the approach of introducing thesaurus knowledge into probabilistic topic models. The main idea of the approach is based on the assumption that the frequencies of semantically related words and phrases, which are met in the same texts, should be enhanced: this action leads to their larger contribution into topics found in these texts. We have conducted experiments with several thesauri and found that for improving topic models, it is useful to utilize domain-specific knowledge. If a general thesaurus, such as WordNet, is used, the thesaurus-based improvement of topic models can be achieved with excluding hyponymy relations in combined topic models.Comment: Accepted to AIST-2017 conference (http://aistconf.ru/). The final publication will be available at link.springer.co

Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events

We show how Markov mixed membership models (MMMM) can be used to predict the degradation of assets. We model the degradation path of individual assets, to predict overall failure rates. Instead of a separate distribution for each hidden state, we use hierarchical mixtures of distributions in the exponential family. In our approach the observation distribution of the states is a finite mixture distribution of a small set of (simpler) distributions shared across all states. Using tied-mixture observation distributions offers several advantages. The mixtures act as a regularization for typically very sparse problems, and they reduce the computational effort for the learning algorithm since there are fewer distributions to be found. Using shared mixtures enables sharing of statistical strength between the Markov states and thus transfer learning. We determine for individual assets the trade-off between the risk of failure and extended operating hours by combining a MMMM with a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) to dynamically optimize the policy for when and how to maintain the asset.Comment: Will be published in the proceedings of ICCS 2020; @Booklet{EasyChair:3183, author = {Paul Hofmann and Zaid Tashman}, title = {Hidden Markov Models and their Application for Predicting Failure Events}, howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3183}, year = {EasyChair, 2020}

Detecting Singleton Review Spammers Using Semantic Similarity

Online reviews have increasingly become a very important resource for consumers when making purchases. Though it is becoming more and more difficult for people to make well-informed buying decisions without being deceived by fake reviews. Prior works on the opinion spam problem mostly considered classifying fake reviews using behavioral user patterns. They focused on prolific users who write more than a couple of reviews, discarding one-time reviewers. The number of singleton reviewers however is expected to be high for many review websites. While behavioral patterns are effective when dealing with elite users, for one-time reviewers, the review text needs to be exploited. In this paper we tackle the problem of detecting fake reviews written by the same person using multiple names, posting each review under a different name. We propose two methods to detect similar reviews and show the results generally outperform the vectorial similarity measures used in prior works. The first method extends the semantic similarity between words to the reviews level. The second method is based on topic modeling and exploits the similarity of the reviews topic distributions using two models: bag-of-words and bag-of-opinion-phrases. The experiments were conducted on reviews from three different datasets: Yelp (57K reviews), Trustpilot (9K reviews) and Ott dataset (800 reviews).Comment: 6 pages, WWW 201