Defining Baseline Sales in a Competitive Environment

The baseline ("normal" sales) has become the most commonly used procedure to measure the incremental effect of marketing variables, particularly promotions. Firms such as IRI and Nielsen provide their clients with baseline sales' estimates which they then use to determine the sales and profit effects of consumer and trade promotions and, in some cases, measure their brand equity. With the increasing importance of the baseline to the measurement of marketing effects, it is necessary to develop an accurate definition of the baseline and determine what it measures. This paper will define baseline sales and discuss its implications, show that the incorporation of competitive reaction is important to the definition of the baseline and discuss how to use this concept when a firm has a broad product line. In addition, we compare several baseline estimation methods using simulated data and show the importance of incorporating a competitive reaction component in baseline estimation. Finally, we apply the concept of competitive reaction to actual sales data and show that the baseline computed without a competitive reaction hnction is ~ i g ~ c a n tdliyff erent from the baseline with a competitive reaction hnction.This study investigates whether changes of oil price would have precedence, exogeneity and causal prediction to the stock markets. The result shows that changes of oil price have precedence over the stock returns in the United States, Japan and Korea markets. And the evidence suggests that there be exogeneity of oil to the stock markets because the stock returns can be causally interpreted by the current or past changes of oil price during the past two decades. Thus changes of oil price would contain any information exploitable in forecasting the stock markets and have the predictive value of leading indicators

Linking Brand Equity to Customer Equity

equity and brand equity are two of the most important topics to academic researchers and practition-ers. As part of the 2005 Thought Leaders Conference held at the University of Connecticut, the authors were asked to review what was known and not known about the relationship between brand equity and customer equity. During their discussions, it became clear that whereas two distinct research streams have emerged and there are distinct differences, the concepts are also highly related. It also became clear that whereas the focus of both brand equity and customer equity research has been on the end consumer, there is a need for research to understand the intermediary’s perspective (e.g., the value of the brand to the retailer and the value of a customer to a retailer) and the consumer’s perspective (e.g., the value of the brand versus the value of the retailer). This article represents general conclusions from the authors ’ discussion and suggests a modeling approach that could be used to investigate linkages between brand equity and customer equity as well as a modeling approach to determine the value of the manufacturer to a retailer

Marketing Actions and the Value of Customer Assets: A Framework for Customer Asset Management

This article develops a framework for assessing how marketing actions affect customers’lifetime value to the firm. The framework is organized around four critical actions that firms must take to effectively manage the asset value of the customer base: database creation, market segmentation, forecasting customer purchase behavior, and resource allocation. In this framework, customer lifetime value is treated as a dynamic construct, that is, it influences the eventual allocation of marketing resources but is also influenced by that allocation. By viewing customers as assets and systematically managing these assets, a firm can identify the most appropriate marketing actions to acquire, maintain, and enhance customer assets and thereby maximize financial returns. The article discusses in detail how to assess customer lifetime value and manage customers as assets. Then, it identifies key research challenges in studying customer asset management and the managerial challenges associated with implementing effective customer asset management practices.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Sales promotions and channel coordination

Consumer sales promotions are usually the result of the decisions of two marketing channel parties, the manufacturer and the retailer. In making these decisions, each party normally follows its own interest: i.e. maximizes its own profit. Unfortunately, this results in a suboptimal outcome for the channel as a whole. Independent profit maximization by channel parties leads to a lack of channel coordination with the implication of leaving money on the table. This may well contribute to the notoriously low profitability of sales promotions. This paper first shows analytically why the suboptimality occurs, and then presents an empirical demonstration, using a unique dataset from an Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) project; ECR is a movement in which parties work together to optimize the distribution channel). In this dataset, actual profit is only a small fraction of potential profit, implying that there is a large degree of suboptimality. It is important that (1) channel parties are aware of this suboptimality; and (2) that they have tools to deal with it. Solutions to the channel coordination problem should ensure that the goals of the individual channel parties are aligned with the goals of the channel as a whole. The paper proposes one particular agreement for this purpose, called proportional discount sharing. Application to the ECR data shows a win-win result for both the manufacturer and the retailer. Recognition of the channel coordination problem by the manufacturer and the retailer is the necessary starting point for agreeing on a way of solving it in a win-win fashion

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

An ontology for strongly sustainable business models: Defining an enterprise framework compatible with natural and social science

Business is increasingly employing sustainability practices, aiming to improve environmental and social responsibility while maintaining and improving profitability. For many organizations, profit-oriented business models are a major constraint impeding progress in sustainability. A formally defined ontology, a model definition, for profit-oriented business models has been employed globally for several years. However, no equivalent ontology is available in research or practice that enables the description of strongly sustainable business models, as validated by ecological economics and derived from natural, social, and system sciences. We present a framework of strongly sustainable business model propositions and principles as findings from a transdisciplinary review of the literature. A comparative analysis was performed between the framework and the Osterwalder profit-oriented ontology for business models. We introduce an ontology that enables the description of successful strongly sustainable business models that resolves weaknesses and includes functionally necessary relationships