The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: A fresh look at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modelling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong s linked exchange rate system. The model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse re- sponses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. These findings contribute to efforts at modelling exchange rate regime credibility as a non-linear process with two distinct regimes

Problems in the Lifshitz Theory of Atom-Wall Interaction

Problems in the Lifshitz theory of atom-wall interaction arise when the dc conductivity of dielectric wall is included into the model of the dielectric response. We review the low-temperature behavior of the free energy and entropy of dispersion interaction for both dielectric and metallic walls. Consistency of the obtained results with thermodynamics and experimental data is analyzed. Recent attempts to include the screening effects and diffusion currents into the Lifshitz theory are considered. It is shown that this leads to the violation of the Nernst heat theorem for wide classes of wall materials. The physical reasons for the emergence of thermodynamic and experimental inconsistencies are elucidated.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, style file ws-ijmpa.cls is use

Laser Stimulation the Electroconductivity of Composite Layers with Multiwalled Carbon Nanotubes

Electroconductivity laser stimulation (irradiation) of composite layers based on carboxymethyl cellu-lose (CMC) and multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) has been researched. The layers were deposited on the following substrates: flexible such as polyimide, polyester, aluminum foil paper, cotton fabric and shop paper (~80 g/m2]; hard substrates such as Si/SiΟ2 and cover glass. The conductivity of layers with thickness 0.5 10 μm was improved more on 500 % /(W/cm2) after laser stimulation (wavelength 970 nm, emission specific power PS~0.051 W/cm2, concentration C~0.05 wt.% MWCNT). When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/3563

Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stabilisierung der Konjunktur auf niedrigem Niveau

Die Weltwirtschaft hat sich im Verlauf dieses Jahres stabilisiert. Im zweiten Quartal dürfte die weltwirtschaftliche Produktion sogar etwas rascher gestiegen sein als zu Jahresbeginn. Insbesondere in den Schwellenländern, so auch in China, in denen sich die Expansion im Winterhalbjahr verlangsamt hatte, hat sich die konjunkturelle Entwicklung stabilisiert. In den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften ist das Bild nach wie vor recht uneinheitlich. Während sich die Konjunktur in den USA im Verlauf des Jahres etwas belebt hat, nahm das BIP im Euro-Raum und in Japan deutlichen langsamer zu als im ersten Quartal. Allerdings ist es in jüngster Zeit auch zu neuen Belastungen für die Weltkonjunktur gekommen. Vor allem hat die Entscheidung Großbritanniens, die Europäische Union zu verlassen, die Verunsicherung deutlich zunehmen lassen. Auch dies dürfte ein Grund dafür sein, dass es bislang nicht zu einer stärkeren Rückführung des expansiven Kurses der Geldpolitik gekommen ist. So hat die britische Notenbank in Reaktion auf den Brexit-Entscheid die Zinsen sogar gesenkt. Von der Finanzpolitik dürften in vielen Regionen inzwischen leicht stützende Effekte auf die Konjunktur ausgehen. Insbesondere, weil in Ländern wie China und auch Japan die schwache konjunkturelle Entwicklung stützende Maßnahmen notwendig erscheinen ließ.Im Prognosezeitraum dürfte sich die internationale Konjunktur wieder etwas beleben, das Expansionstempo gleichwohl moderat bleiben. Angesichts weitgehend ausgelasteter Kapazitäten in den USA, in Japan aber auch in Deutschland dürften die Löhne dort etwas stärker steigen, weshalb der privaten Konsum dort wohl weiterhin kräftig expandieren wird. Die Investitionsgüternachfrage dürfte angesichts der steigenden Kapazitätsauslastung und der Alterung des Kapitalstocks allmählich etwas zunehmen. Das Expansionstempo des Welthandels dürfte angesichts des vom privaten Konsum getragenen Aufschwungs schwach bleiben. Die zu erwartende leichte Belebung der Investitionsnachfrage dürfte dem internationalen Warenaustauch nur geringe zusätzliche Impulse geben. Das Risiko einer stärkeren weltwirtschaftlichen konjunkturellen Verlangsamung, das zu Beginn des Jahres sehr hoch eingeschätzt wurde, hat sich in den vergangenen Monaten durch die dargestellte konjunkturelle Stabilisierung in vielen Ländern deutlich verringert. Vollständig verschwunden ist dieses Risiko aber nicht, vor allem auch, weil sich mit dem britischen Votum für ein Verlassen der EU, sowie der politischen Lage in der Türkei und weiteren Terroranschlägen neue Risiken für die Weltwirtschaft hinzugekommen sind.The state of the global economy has stabilized in the first half of 2016. Most likely, the global economy has even slightly gained pace in the second quarter compared to the beginning of the year. Economic conditions have significantly improved in emerging economies, including China, where growth had slowed down in the second half of 2015. The picture remains mixed for advanced economies. While the US economy has gained momentum in the second quarter, growth has decelerated in Japan and the Euro area compared to the first quarter. The decision of the United Kingdom to leave the EU, will put a strain on the global economy and increases economic uncertainty. However, the resulting distortions, may have also kept monetary policy loose. Following the Brexit-referendum, for instance, the Bank of England has reduced interest rates. In many regions, fiscal policy is slightly expansive by now, driven by expansionary fiscal policies in China and Japan, initiated to fight sluggish economic growth. We expect global economic growth to gain slight momentum during the forecast horizon. Given that capacities are almost fully utilized in the US, Japan but also in Germany, wages will increase faster in these regions, further boosting private consumption. The demand for capital goods is expected to pick up slightly based on increasing capacity utilization and an aging capital stock. Since the global expansion is driven by private consumption, global trade is expected to remain relatively weak. Hence, according to our forecast the expected increase in the demand for capital goods will not generate strong stimuli for the global exchange of goods. The risk of a major economic slowdown, which was estimated to be relatively high at the beginning of this year, has reduced substantially. Prospects have improved in a range of countries as indicated above. However, new risk factors, threating global economic growth, including the Brexit decision in the United Kingdom, the political situation in Turkey as well as new terror attacks have emerged

The Psychodynamic Diagnostic Manual – 2nd edition (PDM-2)

For decades many clinicians, especially psychodynamic and humanistic therapists, have resisted thinking about their patients in terms of categorical diagnoses. In the current era, they find themselves having to choose between reluctantly “accepting” the DSM diagnostic labels, “denying” them, or developing alternatives more consistent with the dimensional, inferential, contextual, biopsychosocial diagnostic formulations characteristic of psychoanalytic and humanistic approaches. The Psychodynamic Diagnostic Manual (PDM) reflects an effort to articulate a psychodynamically oriented diagnosis that bridges the gap between clinical complexity and the need for empirical and methodological validity. In this paper the authors (the steering committee of the PDM-2) describe the process of construction of the PDM-1 and discuss changes proposed for implementation in PDM-2