Advancements in environmentally extended multiregional input-output analysis: modeling drivers, pressures, and impacts

We increasingly need to rely on demand side changes to complement technological improvements to mitigate environmental impacts such as global warming and loss of biodiversity. To do so we must better understand how different types of consumers vary in their impact on the environment and to understand the role of consumer behavior in impact mitigation. The drivers-pressures-states-impact-response (DPSIR) framework describes the interactions between the human and natural systems. As the pressures, states, and impacts components of DPSIR are used to inform environmental policy making, it is crucial to both accurately account for, and to understand the linkages between these components and the underlying drivers. This thesis contributes to better understating of drivers (D), pressures (P) and impacts (I). The first contribution is made by estimating how changes in household income affect greenhouse gas emissions across a range of regions (drivers). By linking a demand system to the multiregional input-output model EXIOBASE 3, results show that by 2030 changing consumer preferences triggered by changes in household income lead to a 1% decrease in global warming from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally compared to static consumer preferences. The largest contributors to this relative decrease in emissions are developing regions driven by lower preference of certain emission intensive food products, while the income effect on emissions of developed regions remain relatively unchanged. However, large expected population and affluence increases in developing regions more than cancel out the small negative effect of a modified consumption structure. Secondly, accuracy of environmental footprint studies is improved by increasing the regional resolution in a multiregional input-output (MRIO) model (pressures). Using a regionally extended version of EXIOBASE with detailed land use extensions, results show that regional aggregation errors are introduced when countries are aggregated to rest-of-the-world regions in the MRIO. Aggregate land use embodied in imports of regions differs by up to 68%, while individual sector-level flows differ by up to 600% when using rest-of-the world regions compared to treating countries explicit. Finally, by linking biodiversity characterization factors of land use to the new EXIOBASE version, biodiversity footprints for numerous new regions are estimated (impacts). Biodiversity footprints have globally increased by 5-6% between 1995 and 2015. Countries rich in biodiversity, and not necessarily affluence, have the highest footprint per capita. However, looking at trends over time, a one percent increase in income leads to a more than one percent increase in biodiversity footprint across all consumption categories for the average consumer in the most affluent countries, while this is not found for developing countries. The subsequent discussion shows that the potential is large for extending on the work in this thesis by further developing the database for understanding how demand-side changes and consumer behavior can contribute to reaching environmental mitigation goals

The Rebound Effect of a Shift to a Green Lifestyle

Reaching the 2°C target of global warming, requires a 40-70% reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Norwegian policy makers have implemented a term called The Green Shift that involves a transition into products and services associated with a substantial reduction in negative consequences for the climate. The focus is primarily on the role of the government, business, and technology improvements to achieve the needed reduction. However, studies show that this might not be enough, which calls for changes on the consumption side. Households can contribute by adapting a green lifestyle comprising of a set of actions associated with cost reductions and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Rather than decreasing overall consumption, the assumption is total re-spending of the money saved from implementing the set of actions to avoid contributing to potential recession. This re-spending leads to additional greenhouse gas emissions, offsetting some of the reductions achieved in the first stage, a phenomenon known as the rebound effect. Although there is much focus on reducing the carbon footprint of households, the rebound effect receives less attention. Cost changes and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions build on findings in the literature. Data from the Norwegian consumer expenditure survey serves as the basis for developing scenarios of re-spending. Calculations on rebound effects involve the use of input-output analysis, using EXIOBASE2, a multi-regional environmentally extended Input Output database. Optimization by linear programming approaches examine the needed changes by households to reach different emission reduction targets. Implementing the green lifestyle without re-spending shows a 58% decrease in an average Norwegian household s carbon footprint. When including re-spending, the reduction drops to 24-35% depending on the pattern of re-spending. The analysis shows that the key to reducing household carbon footprints to the requirements within the 2°C target of global warming is to curb the rebound effect. The linear programming results suggest that through implementing a pattern of re-spending restricted to specific goods and services, households can achieve up to a 50% reduction in carbon footprint with the lifestyle changes suggested. Increased focus on household behavioral changes combined with production side measures can provide the key to achieving the 2°C target of global warming

Insentiver og kriterier for klimatilpasning – reduksjon av klimagassutslipp og energieffektivisering med overføringsverdi og pekere framover

Dette notatet presenterer en kartlegging av insentiver for klimatilpasning og energieffektivi-sering for boliger, og insentivordninger for klimatilpasning for andre markedssegmenter for å drøfte grad av overføringsverdi til boliger. Notatet har fokus på nye boliger og insentiver gjennom bank og forsikring. Vi har gjennomført dybdeintervjuer og peker på framtidens insen-tivordninger på bakgrunn av intervjuene. EU-taksonomien for bærekraftig finans vil spille en viktig rolle for utformingen av insentiver til klimatilpasning av boliger gjennom bank og forsikring. Grønne lån- og forsikringsprodukter vil trolig være én insentivordning som treffer flere av kravene i taksonomien, spesielt målene om klimatilpasning, reduksjon i klimagass-utslipp, energieffektivisering og biologisk mangfold. Framtidige grønne lån- og forsikrings-produkter vil trolig ikke stille material- og detaljkrav, men geografisk plassering vil kunne ha betydning – spesielt der det er definerte faresoner. Insentivordningene vil videre være i form av gulrot heller enn pisk, og standarder og anvisninger vil antakelig bli viktigere enn merke-ordninger. Insentivordningene som utvikles, vil trolig bli en videre-utvikling av eksisterende ordninger.publishedVersion10202214

Insentiver og kriterier for klimatilpasning – reduksjon av klimagassutslipp og energieffektivisering med overføringsverdi og pekere framover

Dette notatet presenterer en kartlegging av insentiver for klimatilpasning og energieffektivi-sering for boliger, og insentivordninger for klimatilpasning for andre markedssegmenter for å drøfte grad av overføringsverdi til boliger. Notatet har fokus på nye boliger og insentiver gjennom bank og forsikring. Vi har gjennomført dybdeintervjuer og peker på framtidens insen-tivordninger på bakgrunn av intervjuene. EU-taksonomien for bærekraftig finans vil spille en viktig rolle for utformingen av insentiver til klimatilpasning av boliger gjennom bank og forsikring. Grønne lån- og forsikringsprodukter vil trolig være én insentivordning som treffer flere av kravene i taksonomien, spesielt målene om klimatilpasning, reduksjon i klimagass-utslipp, energieffektivisering og biologisk mangfold. Framtidige grønne lån- og forsikrings-produkter vil trolig ikke stille material- og detaljkrav, men geografisk plassering vil kunne ha betydning – spesielt der det er definerte faresoner. Insentivordningene vil videre være i form av gulrot heller enn pisk, og standarder og anvisninger vil antakelig bli viktigere enn merke-ordninger. Insentivordningene som utvikles, vil trolig bli en videre-utvikling av eksisterende ordninger

Consumption-based ieffects on land use and biodiversity

This report compiles scientific evidence (based on published articles, reports, and case studies) of the impacts on land use and biodiversity from consumption with focus on NorwaypublishedVersio

Climate change mitigation potential of Norwegian households and the rebound effect

An increasing number of studies show that efficiency improvements alone will not be sufficient to attain the substantial emission reductions needed to mitigate global warming to a target of 2 °C. Consumption side changes are likely to be needed to achieve sufficient emission reductions. The United Nations emphasize the importance of developed countries taking the lead in lowering emissions to achieve the sustainable development goals. This paper assess to what extent Norwegian households can lower their carbon footprint consistent with territorial emission reductions towards the 2 °C target of global warming through implementing a set of behavioral actions. We evaluate the efficacy of the set of actions both initially and after considering rebound effects. A multiregional environmentally extended input-output database is linked with the Norwegian consumer expenditure survey to analyze both average and marginal expenditure per unit of increased income. Further, linear programming is applied to examine the changes needed by households to reach different emission reduction targets. We find that households implementing the full set of actions without re-spending can obtain a 58% decrease in their carbon footprint. When accounting for the effect of re-spending, this reduction drops to 24–35%, which is not within the requirements of the 2 °C target. The optimization analysis suggests households can achieve reductions up to 45% by restricting re-spending to specific goods and services. This indicates that curbing the rebound effect is key to achieving real reductions in household carbon footprints. We show that changing consumption patterns can significantly contribute to lowering anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions without compromising the level of economic activity

Plastic packaging flows in Europe: A hybrid input-output approach

The European Union (EU) set ambitious goals toward more sustainable use of plastics, but the basis for measuring performance and monitoring progress toward these goals remains inadequate due to a limited understanding of the complex systems behind plastic consumption. In this work, we study the region-wide material flows of plastics related to packaging in 2014 using a hybrid approach that combines data on the production and end-of-life management of plastic packaging with a monetary input-output model for the EU. The approach enables us to gain insight into interindustry flows and the connection between production and final demand. We map supply chains with a relatively high resolution, including polymer types, packaging forms and application categories. Results estimate the total packaging placed on the market (POM) and then discarded amounted to 18,000 kt., excluding a net increase in stocks of 500 kt. This means that waste generation could have been up to 15% higher than accounted in official statistics, reinforcing potential underreporting accounts as well as remaining data gaps. Thirty-five percent of postconsumer packaging waste was directed toward recycling. However, only 5% contributed to new domestic packaging production, a reflection of the broad challenges to plastic circularity. Although first steps are taken in this work, we point to an acute lack of information on industrial streams, compounded by missing policy focus, for example, on transport packaging. We suggest areas for deeper investigation and emphasize the potential of hybrid approaches to establishing baselines and assessment of both production and consumption-side mitigation strategies

Trends in national biodiversity footprints of land use

Rising incomes (and associated expenditures) have been shown to be a major driver of environmental problems. Lately, several studies have pointed to a break between the income driver and biodiversity loss on a per-capita level. The increase in land-use efficiency is pointed to as a key factor in this decoupling. However, a lot of the previous work on biodiversity footprints has been cross-sectional and there is limited analysis with a temporal perspective. In this work, we couple a database that links land use to potential biodiversity impacts for ecoregions, with a multiregional environmentally-extended input-output database available in a time series, with high regional detail. We perform a panel regression analysis for three regional quantile groups and six consumption categories that links trends in affluence to trends in biodiversity loss. The findings suggest that high-income regions from 2005 to 2015 have an income elasticity of biodiversity footprint higher than one, while the production-based accounts show that high-income countries have a declining impact on biodiversity in the time period, suggesting a strong outsourcing of biodiversity loss to low-income countries. In the early 2000s a peak in biodiversity footprint for the high-income region is not explained by increasing income, but rather consumption of traded goods associated with land use in countries in South East Asia prone to biodiversity loss. On a product level we find that although food consumption is causing the largest share of biodiversity footprints in all regional groups, manufacturing products, shelter, and clothing and footwear have the strongest income elasticity of footprint in high-income countries, suggesting that these are consumption areas to focus on as affluence grows, particularly in developing regions

Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints

After the publication of various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases over the past years and related environmental and socio-economic footprint analyses, the interest in these global value chain analyses is ever increasing. In order to provide forward-looking analysis of policy impacts, it is necessary to take MRIO data one step further, projecting them into the future. This paper introduces a simple approach to implementing existing climate change scenarios, such as the IEA energy technology perspective scenarios, in MRIO models. Rather than forecasting the world economy, the methodology is based on a mix of econometric estimations on the demand side and using specific information regarding technology development and its classical implementation in input–output tables. We apply this “what if” scenario approach to the most recent version of the MRIO system EXIOBASE. We compare the development of consumption- and production-based CO2 emissions up to 2030. As an additional example, we show that the energy dependency of Europe is reduced in the 2-degree scenario compared to the 6-degree scenario, while the material dependency is higher. We discuss the major shortcoming of the model, the assumption of constant shares if no better information is available, and suggest that this actually is an advantage for deducing policy implications

Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints

After the publication of various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases over the past years and related environmental and socio-economic footprint analyses, the interest in these global value chain analyses is ever increasing. In order to provide forward-looking analysis of policy impacts, it is necessary to take MRIO data one step further, projecting them into the future. This paper introduces a simple approach to implementing existing climate change scenarios, such as the IEA energy technology perspective scenarios, in MRIO models. Rather than forecasting the world economy, the methodology is based on a mix of econometric estimations on the demand side and using specific information regarding technology development and its classical implementation in input–output tables. We apply this “what if” scenario approach to the most recent version of the MRIO system EXIOBASE. We compare the development of consumption- and production-based CO2 emissions up to 2030. As an additional example, we show that the energy dependency of Europe is reduced in the 2-degree scenario compared to the 6-degree scenario, while the material dependency is higher. We discuss the major shortcoming of the model, the assumption of constant shares if no better information is available, and suggest that this actually is an advantage for deducing policy implications