Why Markets Make Mistakes

Many models of markets are based on assumptions of rationality, transparency, efficiency, and homogeneity in various combinations. They assume, at least implicitly, that decision makers understand the structure of the market and how it produces the dynamics which can be observed or might potentially occur. Are these models acceptable simplifications, or can they be seriously misleading? The research described in this article explains why markets routinely and repeatedly make 'mistakes' that are inconsistent with the simplifying assumptions. System Dynamics models are used to show how misestimating demand growth, allowing financial discipline to lapse, unrealistic business planning, and misperception of technology trajectories can produce disastrously wrong business decisions. The undesirable outcomes could include vicious cycles of investment and profitability, market bubbles, accelerated commoditization, excessive investment in dead-end technologies, giving up on a product that becomes a huge success, waiting too long to reinvent legacy companies, and changes in market leadership. The article illuminates the effects of bounded rationality, imperfect information, and fragmentation of decision making. Decision makers rely on simple mental models which have serious limitations. They become increasingly deficient as problems grow more complex, as the environment changes more rapidly, and as the number of decision makers increases. The amplification and tipping dynamics typical of highly coupled systems, for example, bandwagon, network, and lemming effects, are not anticipated. Examples are drawn from airlines, telecommunications, IT, aerospace, energy, and media. The key conclusions in this article are about the critical roles of behavioral factors in the evolution of markets

Quaternary geology of the Five Springs area, northeastern Bighorn Basin, Wyoming

Geomorphic elements in the Five Springs area include floodplains, terraces, alluvial fans, pediments, landslide deposits, and clay dunes which unconformably overlie bedrock of Permian to Cretaceous age. These features are significant to this dissertation because their topographic position and lithologic constituents derived from recognizable stratigraphic units can be used to interpret the Quaternary history of the region;The highest surfaces and oldest Pleistocene sediments are associated with the 600,000 year B.P. North Kane Ash. Subsequent climatically-induced periods of aggradation and incision produced the remaining topographic components. The Bighorn River has been primarily responsible for causing various segments of local creeks to continually be out-of-phase with its regime, which indicates a lag-time in the adjustment of tributaries to Bighorn River processes. Climatic parameters associated with the Bighorn Mountains likewise affect tributaries, but are less important;Processes associated with a typical interglacial-glacial cycle include: (1) interglacial stability with Bighorn River alluviation, pedimentation, and eolian deposition; (2) late-interglacial to early-glacial incision; (3) alluvial fan extension and increased landsliding during glacial intervals; and (4) an early-interglacial return to more stable conditions. Frequent stream captures during interglacial times were caused by the out-of-phase relationships between the Bighorn River and local creeks;The most intense Pleistocene glacial climates in the northeastern Bighorn Basin are believed to have occurred ca. 600,000, 440,000, and 140,000 years B.P; an abnormally wet interglacial existed 100,000-90,000 years ago. The relationship between the Bighorn River and its tributaries suggests that the Pinedale cycle is not yet complete

15N NMR study of a mixture of uniformly labeled tRNAs

15N NMR spectra were taken of 15N-enriched tRNA extracted from bakers yeast; ammonium sulfate was used as a nitrogen source. The increase in the degree of denaturation of tRNA, which occurs with increase in temperature from 30 degrees C to 70 degrees C, resulted in no large changes in 15N chemical shifts at acidic and neutral pH but quite pronounced changes in proton-15N nuclear Overhauser effects

Taming the Business Cycles in Commercial Aviation: Trade-space analysis of strategic alternatives using simulation modeling

We investigate the effectiveness of strategic alternatives that are designed to dampen the cyclicality manifest in the commercial aviation related industries. The constituent enterprises of the commercial aviation system exhibit managerial and operational independence and have diverse value functions that often viewed the enterprises to view their competition as a zero-sum game. We argue that this need not always be the case; in the commercial aviation system both airline and airframe manufacturers constituents would benefit from a steadier influx of aircraft that counters the current situation that is characterized by relatively stable demand growth rate for air travel while airline profitability and aircraft ordering fluctuate intensely. In order to identify and evaluate the symbiotic potential, we use a system dynamics model of commercial aviation. After testing several individual strategic alternatives, we find that capacity management is key to cycle moderation for non-collusive strategies. Comparing faster aircraft deliveries to semi-fixed production schedules among other alternatives shows only the latter alternative to be Pareto efficient

Workload fluctuation in management consulting firms.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Industrial Management. Thesis. 1965. B.S.B.S

The elaborate route for UDP-arabinose delivery into the Golgi of plants

Indexación: Scopus.In plants, L-Arabinose (Ara) is a key component of cell wall polymers, glycoproteins, as well as flavonoids, and signaling peptides. Whereas the majority of Ara found in plant glycans occurs as a furanose ring (Araf), the activated precursor has a pyranose ring configuration (UDP-Arap). The biosynthesis of UDP-Arap mainly occurs via the epimerization of UDP-xylose (UDP-Xyl) in the Golgi lumen. Given that the predominant Ara form found in plants is Araf, UDP-Arap must exit the Golgi to be interconverted into UDPAraf by UDP-Ara mutases that are located outside on the cytosolic surface of the Golgi. Subsequently, UDP-Araf must be transported back into the lumen. This step is vital because glycosyltransferases, the enzymes mediating the glycosylation reactions, are located within the Golgi lumen, and UDP-Arap, synthesized within the Golgi, is not their preferred substrate. Thus, the transport of UDP-Araf into the Golgi is a prerequisite. Although this step is critical for cell wall biosynthesis and the glycosylation of proteins and signaling peptides, the identification of these transporters has remained elusive. In this study, we present data demonstrating the identification and characterization of a family of Golgilocalized UDP-Araf transporters in Arabidopsis. The application of a proteoliposome-based transport assay revealed that four members of the nucleotide sugar transporter (NST) family can efficiently transport UDP-Araf in vitro. Subsequent analysis of mutant lines affected in the function of these NSTs confirmed their role as UDP-Araf transporters in vivo.http://www.pnas.org/content/114/16/4261.ful

Bi-functional glycosyltransferases catalyze both extension and termination of pectic galactan oligosaccharides

Pectins are the most complex polysaccharides of the plant cell wall. Based on the number of methylations, acetylations and glycosidic linkages present in their structures, it is estimated that up to 67 transferase activities are involved in pectin biosynthesis. Pectic galactans constitute a major part of pectin in the form of side-chains of rhamnogalacturonan-I. In Arabidopsis, galactan synthase 1 (GALS1) catalyzes the addition of galactose units from UDP-Gal to growing β-1,4-galactan chains. However, the mechanisms for obtaining varying degrees of polymerization remain poorly understood. In this study, we show that AtGALS1 is bifunctional, catalyzing both the transfer of galactose from UDP-α-d-Gal and the transfer of an arabinopyranose from UDP-β-l-Arap to galactan chains. The two substrates share a similar structure, but UDP-α-d-Gal is the preferred substrate, with a 10-fold higher affinity. Transfer of Arap to galactan prevents further addition of galactose residues, resulting in a lower degree of polymerization. We show that this dual activity occurs both in vitro and in vivo. The herein described bifunctionality of AtGALS1 may suggest that plants can produce the incredible structural diversity of polysaccharides without a dedicated glycosyltransferase for each glycosidic linkage

How do MNC R&D laboratory roles affect employee international assignments?

Research and development (R&D) employees are important human resources for multinational corporations (MNCs) as they are the driving force behind the advancement of innovative ideas and products. International assignments of these employees can be a unique way to upgrade their expertise; allowing them to effectively recombine their unique human resources to progress existing knowledge and advance new ones. This study aims to investigate the effect of the roles of R&D laboratories in which these employees work on the international assignments they undertake. We categorise R&D laboratory roles into those of the support laboratory, the locally integrated laboratory and the internationally interdependent laboratory. Based on the theory of resource recombinations, we hypothesise that R&D employees in support laboratories are not likely to assume international assignments, whereas those in locally integrated and internationally interdependent laboratories are likely to assume international assignments. The empirical evidence, which draws from research conducted on 559 professionals in 66 MNC subsidiaries based in Greece, provides support to our hypotheses. The resource recombinations theory that extends the resource based view can effectively illuminate the international assignment field. Also, research may provide more emphasis on the close work context of R&D scientists rather than analyse their demographic characteristics, the latter being the focus of scholarly practice hitherto

The neurophysiologic landscape of the sleep onset: a systematic review

Background: The sleep onset process is an ill-defined complex process of transition from wakefulness to sleep, characterized by progressive modifications at the subjective, behavioural, cognitive, and physiological levels. To this date, there is no international consensus which could aid a principled characterisation of this process for clinical research purposes. The current review aims to systemise the current knowledge about the underlying mechanisms of the natural heterogeneity of this process. Methods: In this systematic review, studies investigating the process of the sleep onset from 1970 to 2022 were identified using electronic database searches of PsychINFO, MEDLINE, and Embase. Results: A total of 139 studies were included; 110 studies in healthy participants and 29 studies in participants with sleep disorders. Overall, there is a limited consensus across a body of research about what distinct biomarkers of the sleep onset constitute. Only sparse data exists on the physiology, neurophysiology and behavioural mechanisms of the sleep onset, with majority of studies concentrating on the non-rapid eye movement stage 2 (NREM 2) as a potentially better defined and a more reliable time point that separates sleep from the wake, on the sleep wake continuum. Conclusions: The neurophysiologic landscape of sleep onset bears a complex pattern associated with a multitude of behavioural and physiological markers and remains poorly understood. The methodological variation and a heterogenous definition of the wake-sleep transition in various studies to date is understandable, given that sleep onset is a process that has fluctuating and ill-defined boundaries. Nonetheless, the principled characterisation of the sleep onset process is needed which will allow for a greater conceptualisation of the mechanisms underlying this process, further influencing the efficacy of current treatments for sleep disorders.This paper represents independent research in part funded by the NIHR Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London