Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

This online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com on September 28, 2023BACKGROUND : Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS : Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS : In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world’s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION : Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.http://www.thelancet.comam2024School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)SDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein

Face, Content, and Construct Validations of Endoscopic Needle Injection Simulator for Transurethral Bulking Agent in Treatment of Stress Urinary Incontinence.

Introduction and objectivesEndoscopic injection of urethral bulking agents is an office procedure that is used to treat stress urinary incontinence secondary to internal sphincteric deficiency. Validation studies important part of simulator evaluation and is considered important step to establish the effectiveness of simulation-based training. The endoscopic needle injection (ENI) simulator has not been formally validated, although it has been used widely at University of California, Irvine. We aimed to assess the face, content, and construct validity of the UC, Irvine ENI simulator.MethodsDissected female porcine bladders were mounted in a modified Hysteroscopy Diagnostic Trainer. Using routine endoscopic equipment for this procedure with video monitoring, 6 urologists (experts group) and 6 urology trainee (novice group) completed urethral bulking agents injections on a total of 12 bladders using ENI simulator. Face and content validities were assessed by using structured quantitative survey which rating the realism. Construct validity was assessed by comparing the performance, time of the procedure, and the occlusive (anatomical and functional) evaluations between the experts and novices. Trainees also completed a postprocedure feedback survey. Effective injections were evaluated by measuring the retrograde urethral opening pressure, visual cystoscopic coaptation, and postprocedure gross anatomic examination.ResultsAll 12 participants felt the simulator was a good training tool and should be used as essential part of urology training (face validity). ENI simulator showed good face and content validity with average score varies between the experts and the novices was 3.9/5 and 3.8/5, respectively. Content validity evaluation showed that most aspects of the simulator were adequately realistic (mean Likert scores 3.9-3.8/5). However, the bladder does not bleed, and sometimes thin. Experts significantly outperformed novices (p < 001) across all measure of performance therefore establishing construct validity.ConclusionThe ENI simulator shows face, content and construct validities, although few aspects of simulator were not very realistic (e.g., bleeding).This study provides a base for the future formal validation for this simulator and for continuing use of this simulator in endourology training

Large Periphery GaN HEMTs Modeling Using Distributed Gate Resistance

International audienc

Thermal Transient Extraction for GaN HEMTs by Frequency-Resolved Gate Resistance Thermometry with Sub-100 ns Time Resolution

International audienc

Scaling of GaN HEMTs Thermal Transient Characteristics

International audienc

Scalable small signal modeling of AlGaN/GaN HEMT based on distributed gate resistance

International audienc

Large Periphery GaN HEMTs Modeling Using Distributed Gate Resistance

International audienc

Scaling of GaN HEMTs Thermal Transient Characteristics

International audienc

Scalable small signal modeling of AlGaN/GaN HEMT based on distributed gate resistance

International audienc

Entropy-based metrics for predicting choice behavior based on local response to reward

For decades, behavioral scientists have used the matching law to quantify how animals distribute their choices between multiple options in response to reinforcement they receive. More recently, many reinforcement learning (RL) models have been developed to explain choice by integrating reward feedback over time. Despite reasonable success of RL models in capturing choice on a trial-by-trial basis, these models cannot capture variability in matching behavior. To address this, we developed metrics based on information theory and applied them to choice data from dynamic learning tasks in mice and monkeys. We found that a single entropy-based metric can explain 50% and 41% of variance in matching in mice and monkeys, respectively. We then used limitations of existing RL models in capturing entropy-based metrics to construct more accurate models of choice. Together, our entropy-based metrics provide a model-free tool to predict adaptive choice behavior and reveal underlying neural mechanisms