Smallpox and Bioterrorism: Why the Plan to Protect the Nation Is Stalled and What to Do

The Iraq war is over, no weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have yet been found, and the president's smallpox plan, though sound, is running out of steam. Instead of being well on the way to protecting the nation's civilian population by vaccinating up to 10 million health, emergency, and public safety workers, we are stalled at 37,971 vaccinated civilians while the military has successfully and safely vaccinated more than 450,000 people. Moreover, whether or not WMD are found in Iraq, it is only one of a number of nations on the list of suspects. Of all biological weapons, smallpox has the greatest potential for doing widespread harm. Given that the risk of death or serious harm to anyone from any form of terrorism is very low, we should live our daily lives normally, not in fear. However, to do that we need to be sure that our government is taking effective steps to reduce the chances of terrorism and, when it occurs, to minimize its consequences. Even though there is enough vaccine for everyone, we are ill prepared to rapidly contain smallpox after a bioterrorist release. Although Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines have recently improved, they continue to overstate the risk of side effects of the vaccine and erroneously suggest that, after an attack, the techniques used decades ago to eradicate smallpox will work well today. Medicine and public health are very risk-averse professions in our risk-averse culture. We have not yet realized the complexity and difficulty of vaccinating millions of Americans rapidly after an attack. Nor have we come to grips with the need to make rapid, possibly draconian, post-attack decisions based on limited data of uncertain quality. That type of decisionmaking runs counter to the culture of public health. The Bush administration needs to revitalize our preparations for a smallpox bioterrorist event

The Numerical Simulation of Radiative Shocks I: The elimination of numerical shock instabilities using a localized oscillation filter

We address a numerical instability that arises in the directionally split computation of hydrodynamic flows when shock fronts are parallel to a grid plane. Transverse oscillations in pressure, density and temperature are produced that are exacerbated by thermal instability when cooling is present, forming post--shock `stripes'. These are orthogonal to the classic post--shock 'ringing' fluctuations. The resulting post--shock `striping' substantially modifies the flow. We discuss three different methods to resolve this problem. These include (1) a method based on artificial viscosity; (2) grid--jittering and (3) a new localized oscillation filter that acts on specific grid cells in the shock front. These methods are tested using a radiative wall shock problem with an embedded shear layer. The artificial viscosity method is unsatisfactory since, while it does reduce post--shock ringing, it does not eliminate the stripes and the excessive shock broadening renders the calculation of cooling inaccurate, resulting in an incorrect shock location. Grid--jittering effectively counteracts striping. However, elsewhere on the grid, the shear layer is unphysically diffused and this is highlighted in an extreme case. The oscillation filter method removes stripes and permits other high velocity gradient regions of the flow to evolve in a physically acceptable manner. It also has the advantage of only acting on a small fraction of the cells in a two or three dimensional simulation and does not significantly impair performance.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, revised version submitted to ApJ Supplement Serie

Space station integrated propulsion and fluid systems study

This Databook addresses the integration of fluid systems of the Space Station program. It includes a catalog of components required for the Space Station elements fluid systems and information on potential hardware commonality. The components catalog is in four parts. The first part lists the components defined for all the fluid systems identified in EP 2.1, Space Station Program Fluid Systems Configuration Databook. The components are cross-referenced in three sections. Section 2.1 lists the components by the fluid system in which they are used. Section 2.2 lists the components by type. Section 2.3 lists by the type of fluid media handled by the component. The next part of the catalog provides a description of the individual component. This section (2.4) is made up of data retrieved from Martin Marietta Denver Aerospace component data base. The third part is an assessment of propulsion hardware technology requirements. Section 2.5 lists components identified during the study as requiring development prior to flight qualification. Finally, Section 2.6 presents the results of the evaluation of commonality between components. The specific requirements of each component have been reviewed and duplication eliminated

Space station integrated propulsion and fluid system study: Fluid systems configuration databook

This databook contains fluid system requirements and system descriptions for Space Station program elements including the United States and International modules, integrated fluid systems, attached payloads, fluid servicers and vehicle accommodation facilities. Separate sections are devoted to each of the program elements and include a discussion of the overall system requirements, specific fluid systems requirements and systems descriptions. The systems descriptions contain configurations, fluid inventory data and component lists. In addition, a list of information sources is referenced at the end of each section

Space station integrated propulsion and fluid systems study

The program study was performed in two tasks: Task 1 addressed propulsion systems and Task 2 addressed all fluid systems associated with the Space Station elements, which also included propulsion and pressurant systems. Program results indicated a substantial reduction in life cycle costs through integrating the oxygen/hydrogen propulsion system with the environmental control and life support system, and through supplying nitrogen in a cryogenic gaseous supercritical or subcritical liquid state. A water sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the food water content would substantially increase the amount of water available for propulsion use and in all cases, the implementation of the BOSCH CO2 reduction process would reduce overall life cycle costs to the station and minimize risk. An investigation of fluid systems and associated requirements revealed a delicate balance between the individual propulsion and fluid systems across work packages and a strong interdependence between all other fluid systems

The fish fauna of the Iwokrama Forest

Fishes were collected from the rivers in and around the Iwokrama Forest during January-February and November-December 1997. Four hundred species of fish were recorded from forty families in ten orders. Many of these fishes are newly recorded from Guyana and several are thought to be endemic. The number of species recorded for the area is surprising given the low level of effort and suggests that this area may be particularly important from a fish diversity perspective. This paper focuses on species of particular interest from a management perspective including those considered economically important, rare or endangered. The paper is also the basis for developing fisheries management systems in the Iwokrama Forest and Rupununi Wetlands

Uniqueness of Self-Similar Asymptotically Friedmann-Robertson-Walker Spacetime in Brans-Dicke theory

We investigate spherically symmetric self-similar solutions in Brans-Dicke theory. Assuming a perfect fluid with the equation of state $p=(\gamma-1)\mu (1 \le \gamma<2)$, we show that there are no non-trivial solutions which approach asymptotically to the flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker spacetime if the energy density is positive. This result suggests that primordial black holes in Brans-Dicke theory cannot grow at the same rate as the size of the cosmological particle horizon.Comment: Revised version, 4 pages, no figures, Revtex, accepted for publication in Physical Review