Prediction of early recurrence after surgery for liver tumor (ERASL): an international validation of the ERASL risk models

Background This study aimed to assess the performance of the pre- and postoperative early recurrence after surgery for liver tumor (ERASL) models at external validation. Prediction of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after resection is important for individualized surgical management. Recently, the preoperative (ERASL-pre) and postoperative (ERASL-post) risk models were proposed based on patients from Hong Kong. These models showed good performance although they have not been validated to date by an independent research group. Methods This international cohort study included 279 patients from the Netherlands and 392 patients from Japan. The patients underwent first-time resection and showed a diagnosis of HCC on pathology. Performance was assessed according to discrimination (concordance [C] statistic) and calibration (correspondence between observed and predicted risk) with recalibration in a Weibull model. Results The discriminatory power of both models was lower in the Netherlands than in Japan (C statistic, 0.57 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.52-0.62] vs 0.69 [95% CI 0.65-0.73] for the ERASL-pre model and 0.62 [95% CI 0.57-0.67] vs 0.70 [95% CI 0.66-0.74] for the ERASL-post model), whereas their prognostic profiles were similar. The predictions of the ERASL models were systematically too optimistic for both cohorts. Recalibrated ERASL models improved local applicability for both cohorts. Conclusions The discrimination of ERASL models was poorer for the Western patients than for the Japanese patients, who showed good performance. Recalibration of the models was performed, which improved the accuracy of predictions. However, in general, a model that explains the East-West difference or one tailored to Western patients still needs to be developed.Analysis and support of clinical decision makingDevelopment and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc

ASO Visual Abstract: Prediction of Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Resection-An International Validation of the ERASL Risk Models

Analysis and support of clinical decision makingDevelopment and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc

The treatment effect of liver transplantation versus liver resection for hcc

For patients presenting with hepatocellular carcinoma within the Milan criteria, either liver resection or liver transplantation can be performed. However, to what extent either of these treatment options is superior in terms of long-term survival is unknown. Obviously, the comparison of these treatments is complicated by several selection processes. In this article, we comprehensively review the current literature with a focus on factors accounting for selection bias. Thus far, studies that did not perform an intention-to-treat analysis conclude that liver transplantation is superior to liver resection for early-stage hepatocellula

Adverse events while awaiting myocardial revascularization: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the current study was to estimate adverse event rates while awaiting myocardial revascularization and review criteria for prioritizing patients. METHODS: A PubMed search was performed on 19 January 2015, to identify English-language, original, observational studies reporting adverse events while awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Rates of death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and emergency revascularization were calculated as occurrence rates per 1000 patient-weeks and pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: The search yielded 1323 articles, of which 22 were included with 66 410 patients and 607 675 patient-weeks on the wait list. When awaiting CABG, rates per 1000 patient-weeks were 1.1 [95% confidence interval 0.9-1.3] for death, 1.0 [0.6-1.6] for non-fatal MI and 1.8 [0.8-4.1] for emergency revascularization. Subgroup analyses demonstrated consistent outcomes, and sensitivity analyses demonstrated comparable event rates with low heterogeneity. Higher urgency of revascularization was based primarily on angiographic complexity, angina severity, left ventricular dysfunction and symptoms on stress testing, and such patients with a semi-urgent status had a higher risk of death than patients awaiting elective revascularization (risk ratio at least 2.8). Individual studies identified angina severity and left ventricular dysfunction as most important predictors of death when awaiting CABG. Adverse rates per 1000 patient-weeks for patients awaiting PCI were 0.1 [95% confidence interval 0.0-0.4] for death, 0.4 [0.1-1.2] for non-fatal MI and 0.7 [0.4-1.4] for emergency revascularization but were based on only a few old studies. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of death, non-fatal MI and emergency revascularization when awaiting myocardial revascularization are infrequent but higher in specific patients. Countries that not yet have treatment recommendations related to waiting times should consider introducing a maximum to limit adverse events, particularly when awaiting CABG