FORECASTING AGRICULTURAL PRICES USING A BAYESIAN COMPOSITE APPROACH

Forecast users and market analysts need quality forecast information to improve their decision-making abilities. When more than one forecast is available, the analyst can improve forecast accuracy by using a composite forecast. One of several approaches to forming composite forecasts is a Bayesian approach using matrix beta priors. This paper explains the matrix beta approach and applies it to three individual forecasts of U.S. hog prices. The Bayesian composite forecast is evaluated relative to composites made from simple averages, restricted least squares, and an adaptive weighting technique.Demand and Price Analysis,

Dynamic Relationships Among Selected U.S. Commodity-Based, Value Added Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model

This paper demonstrates the application of a recently developed methodology, the combination of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with Bernanke structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, to model a system of U.S. commodity-related and value-added markets. As an example, the paper applies this methodology to a quarterly system of U.S. markets: the wheat market and a set of downstream milling and bakery markets that use wheat as an input. Analyses of the model's impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in commodity-based markets strongly influence each other, although most of these effects occur in the long run beyond a single crop cycle. The paper illuminates how important U.S. food prices respond to wheat farm market shocks in price and quantity.Bernanke structural VARs, directed acyclic graphs, quarterly wheat-related markets, Industrial Organization, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Potential Impacts of Food Borne Ill Incidence on Market Movements and Prices of Fresh Produce in the US

For many decades, fresh fruits and vegetables enjoyed a reputation as the healthiest products full of essential vitamins, minerals, and other beneficial substances for a balanced diet. However, numerous recent food outbreaks associated with fresh produce have raised concerns on the mind of the consumer. Following an outbreak, consumers reduce their immediate consumption of the affected products. Even tough fresh fruits and vegetables have unique characteristics and flavors, consumers tend to substitute affected outbreak products with other fruits and vegetables. The potential impact of food borne illness on consumption has also a longer term impact, reducing consumption of the products over a period of several months after the outbreak. This paper used historical decomposition analysis to study both, the contemporaneous and lagged effects of food borne illness in the fresh produce industry using three case studies, spinach, cantaloupes, and tomatoes.Food safety, fresh produce, historical decomposition, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Diagnosis and Treatment of Pediatric Acquired Aplastic Anemia (AAA): An Initial Survey of the North American Pediatric Aplastic Anemia Consortium (NAPAAC)

BackgroundRandomized clinical trials in pediatric aplastic anemia (AA) are rare and data to guide standards of care are scarce. ProcedureEighteen pediatric institutions formed the North American Pediatric Aplastic Anemia Consortium to foster collaborative studies in AA. The initial goal of NAPAAC was to survey the diagnostic studies and therapies utilized in AA. ResultsOur survey indicates considerable variability among institutions in the diagnosis and treatment of AA. There were areas of general consensus, including the need for a bone marrow evaluation, cytogenetic and specific fluorescent in situ hybridization assays to establish diagnosis and exclude genetic etiologies with many institutions requiring results prior to initiation of immunosuppressive therapy (IST); uniform referral for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation as first line therapy if an HLA-identical sibling is identified; the use of first-line IST containing horse anti-thymocyte globulin and cyclosporine A (CSA) if an HLA-identical sibling donor is not identified; supportive care measures; and slow taper of CSA after response. Areas of controversy included the need for telomere length results prior to IST, the time after IST initiation defining a treatment failure; use of hematopoietic growth factors; the preferred rescue therapy after failure of IST; the use of specific hemoglobin and platelet levels as triggers for transfusion support; the use of prophylactic antibiotics; and follow-up monitoring after completion of treatment. ConclusionsThese initial survey results reflect heterogeneity in diagnosis and care amongst pediatric centers and emphasize the need to develop evidence-based diagnosis and treatment approaches in this rare disease. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2014;61:869-874. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Diagnosis and treatment of pediatric acquired aplastic anemia (AAA): An initial survey of the North American Pediatric Aplastic Anemia Consortium (NAPAAC)

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106711/1/pbc24875.pd

DNA damage signalling prevents deleterious telomere addition at DNA breaks

The response to DNA damage involves regulation of multiple essential processes to maximize the accuracy of DNA damage repair and cell survival 1. Telomerase has the potential to interfere with repair by inappropriately adding telomeres to DNA breaks. It was unknown whether cells modulate telomerase in response to DNA damage, to increase the accuracy of repair. Here we report that telomerase action is regulated as a part of the cellular response to a DNA double-strand break (DSB). Using yeast, we show that the major ATR/Mec1 DNA damage signalling pathway regulates telomerase action at DSBs. Upon DNA damage, MEC1-RAD53-DUN1-dependent phosphorylation of the telomerase inhibitor Pif1 occurs. Utilizing a separation of function PIF1 mutation, we show that this phosphorylation is required for the Pif1-mediated telomerase inhibition that takes place specifically at DNA breaks, but not telomeres. Hence DNA damage signalling down-modulates telomerase action at a DNA break via Pif1 phosphorylation, thus preventing aberrant healing of broken DNA ends by telomerase. These findings uncover a novel regulatory mechanism that coordinates competing DNA end-processing activities and thereby promotes DNA repair accuracy and genome integrity