Organized Crime Infiltration of Legitimate Businesses in Europe: A Pilot Project in Five European Countries. Final Report of Project ARIEL – Assessing the Risk of the Infiltration of Organized Crime in EU MSs Legitimate Economies: a Pilot Project in 5 EU Countries

This research is an exploratory study on the infiltration of organised crime groups (OCGs) in legal businesses. Infiltration occurs in every case in which a natural person belonging to a criminal organisation or acting on its behalf, or an already infiltrated legal person, invests financial and/or human resources to participate in the decision-making process of a legitimate business. The main output of the research is a list of risk factors of OCG infiltration in legal businesses, i.e. factors that facilitate or promote infiltration. Risk factors are derived from an unprecedented cross-national comparative analysis of the vulnerabilities of territories and business sectors, criminal groups’ modi operandi, and the characteristics of infiltrated businesses. Infiltration risk factors provide inputs for the development of a risk assessment model of OCG infiltration. Its development will assist Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) in identifying the factors facilitating and/or promoting infiltration and enhancing the prevention and enforcement of criminal infiltration. This will help protect EU MS legitimate economies from the misuse of legal businesses for illicit purposes

Contagion, counterterrorism and criminology: The Case of France

In the burgeoning criminological literature on security, risk and preventive justice which has followed the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers, ‘contagion’ or the deleterious effect of counterterrorist policies on the ordinary criminal law has been the subject of some discussion, mostly in the context of the threat which such ‘exceptional’ policies pose to mainstream procedural values. This article seeks to build on this literature through an examination of the impact of post 9/11 counterterrorism law and policy on the ordinary criminal justice system in France. Given the extent to which counterterrorist law now encroaches on various aspects of French criminal law, the argument is made for greater criminological attention to be paid to the ‘trickle-down’ effect of extraordinary law on the ordinary business of the criminal justice system

LAW ENFORCEMENT AND CRIMINAL NETWORK RESILIENCE: THE IMPACT OF LAW ENFORCEMENT ACTION ON THE STRUCTURE OF MAFIA-RELATED DRUG TRAFFICKING NETWORKS

Per comprendere la capacità delle organizzazioni criminali di resistere alle indagini da parte delle forze di polizia, alcuni studiosi hanno introdotto il concetto di resilienza nel campo della ricerca sul crimine organizzato. Il termine si riferisce alla capacità di un gruppo criminale di affrontare le pressioni esterne e riorganizzarsi. Adottando un approccio di rete e facendo riferimento a precedenti ricerche sulla resilienza dei gruppi criminali, il presente studio analizza l’evoluzione nel corso del tempo di due gruppi legati alla ‘Ndrangheta. L’obiettivo consiste nel comprendere come questi gruppi si sono adattati alla pressione da parte delle forze dell’ordine e nell’identificare i meccanismi che hanno favorito la loro evoluzione e i cambiamenti che hanno riguardato la loro struttura organizzativa. I risultati mostrano che i due gruppi criminali hanno potuto fare affidamento su diverse fonti di resilienza. La presenza di legami di natura non economica, che non sono conseguenza della loro partecipazione nei mercati illegali, ha consentito ai gruppi mafiosi di sostituire i soggetti arrestati in modo rapido ma parziale. Una minor importanza attribuita alla struttura gerarchica da parte dei gruppi mafiosi coinvolti in traffici internazionali ha invece permesso a questi gruppi di dotarsi di una organizzazione interna più flessibile.To understand mafia persistence over time and address the problem of the impact of law enforcement interventions on criminal groups, some scholars have introduced the concept of resilience into organized crime research; this refers to the ability of criminal groups to deal with ongoing changes and reorganize themselves accordingly. Adopting a network approach to organized crime and drawing on previous studies on criminal network resilience, this study analyses the evolution of two ‘Ndrangheta criminal groups over around two years, seeking to understand how they adapted to the external pressure of law enforcement agencies, and to identify the mechanisms that drove their evolution and the structural changes that they experienced. The results show that the two mafia groups had several sources of resilience. The possibility to rely on non-economic ties, which are not the consequence of their participation in illegal markets, enabled the mafia groups to rapidly, though partially, replace the actors arrested. A less prominent role of the formal hierarchy of the ‘Ndrangheta in criminal networks mainly involved in drug trafficking instead gave rise to a more flexible internal configuration

How do illicit drugs move across countries? A network analysis of the heroin supply to Europe

Illicit drugs are trafficked across manifold borders before ultimately reaching consumers. Consequently, interdiction of cross-border drug trafficking forms a critical component of the European Union’s initiative to reduce drug supplies. However, there is contradictory evidence about its effectiveness, which is due, in part, to a paucity of information about how drugs flow across borders. This study uses a network approach to analyse international drug trafficking both to and within Europe, drawing on several perspectives to delineate the factors that affect how drug shipments move across borders. The analysis explicates how drug trafficking is concentrated along specific routes; moreover, we demonstrate that its structure is not random, but, rather, driven by specific factors. In particular, corruption, social and geographical proximity are key factors explaining the configuration of heroin supply to European countries. This study also provides essential insights into the disruption of traffickers’ illicit activities

Maritime piracy worldwide

Maritime piracy is a complex phenomenon that, according to the definition used, comprises different criminal behaviours (e.g., theft, robbery, kidnapping), modus operandi (e.g., massive armed attacks, insiders, use of skiffs and mother ships) and targets (e.g., the goods carried on the ship, the belongings of the crew, the ship itself). These features may change over time and over space. Looking at the evolution and peculiarities of this phenomenon in different areas can help to identify regularities and implement more effective countermeasures. In recent years, Transcrime has been active in promoting the idea that actual reductions of complex crime phenomena can be reached through specific prevention strategies. This approach relies on accurate analyses of the available data to identify regular patterns and risk factors. This study summarises some of the findings that emerged from the research Transcrime conducted on maritime piracy, using a comparative approach

The Italian mafias in the world: a systematic assessment of the mobility of criminal groups

This study complements existing literature on the mobility of criminal groups (mainly based on country case studies) with the first systematic assessment of the worldwide activities of the four main types of Italian mafias (Cosa Nostra, Camorra, ’Ndrangheta and Apulian mafias) from 2000 to 2012. Drawing from publicly available reports, a specific multiple correspondence analysis identifies the most important associations among mafias, activities, and countries. The results show that the mafias concentrate in a few countries; drug trafficking is the most frequent activity, whereas money laundering appears less important than expected; a stable mafia presence is reported in a few developed countries (mainly Germany, Canada, Australia, and the United States). The mafias show significant differences: the ’Ndrangheta tends to establish structured groups abroad, whereas the other mafias mainly participate in illicit trades

The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: a latent space approach

This study utilises recent advances in statistical models for social networks to identify the factors shaping heroin trafficking in relation to European countries. First, it estimates the size of the heroin flows among a network of 61 countries, before subsequently using a latent space approach to model the presence of trafficking and the amount of heroin traded between any two given countries. Many networks, such as trade networks, are intrinsically weighted, and ignoring edge weights results in a loss of relevant information. Traditionally, the gravity model has been used to predict legal trade flows, assuming conditional independence among observations. More recently, latent space position models for social networks have been used to analyze legal trade among countries, and, mutatis mutandis, can be applied to the context of illegal trade to count both edge weights and conditional dependence among observations. These models allow for a better understanding of the generative processes and potential evolution of heroin trafficking routes. This study shows that geographical and social proximity provide fertile ground for the formation of heroin flows. Opportunities are also a driver of drug flows towards countries where regulation of corruption is weak

Interdicting international drug trafficking: a network approach for coordinated and targeted interventions

There is a relative dearth of literature on both the effects of cross-border interdictions and the impact of different types of interventions on international drug trafficking. This study identifies the main trafficking routes for cocaine and heroin, along with comparing the disruptive effects induced by targeted and non-coordinated interventions. It adopts a social network approach to identify the routes along which cocaine and heroin are trafficked, and then simulates the impact of different interdiction strategies on these two trafficking networks. The findings indicate that targeting countries based on their respective positions in the networks, as opposed to on the basis of the quantity of drugs exchanged, is more likely to disrupt drug flows. More specifically, concentrating law enforcement resources on countries with several incoming or outgoing trafficking connections, or those countries that mediate between producer, transit and consumer countries, would appear to be particularly effective in this regard. Interventions focused on specific trafficking routes are also likely to be effective if these routes have high edge betweenness centrality scores. This study contributes to extant understanding on the vulnerability of cocaine and heroin international trafficking networks, and, moreover, demonstrates that empirically-driven strategies are potentially more effective at interdicting international trafficking than non-strategic and non-coordinated interventions

Online and offline determinants of drug trafficking across countries via cryptomarkets

Drug cryptomarkets are a significant development in the recent history of illicit drug markets. Dealers and buyers can now finalize transactions with people they have never met, who could be located anywhere across the globe. What factors shape the geography of international drug trafficking via these cryptomarkets? In our current study, we test the determinants of drug trafficking through cryptomarkets by using a mix of social network analysis and a new dataset composed of self-reported transactions. Our findings contribute to existing research by demonstrating that a country’s level of technological advancement increases the probability of forming trafficking connections on cryptomarkets. Additionally, we found that a country’s capacity to police cryptomarkets reduces the number of trafficking connections with other countries. We also observed that trafficking on cryptomarkets is more likely to occur between countries that are geographically close. In summary, our study highlights the need to consider both online and offline factors in research on cryptomarkets

Forecasting Organized Crime Homicides: Risk Terrain Modeling of Camorra Violence in Naples, Italy

Mafia homicides are usually committed for retaliation, economic profit, or rivalry among groups. The variety of possible reasons suggests the inefficacy of a preventive approach. However, like most violent crimes, mafia homicides concentrate in space due to place-specific social and environmental features. Starting from the existing literature, this study applies the Risk Terrain Modeling approach to forecast the Camorra homicides in Naples, Italy. This approach is based on the identification and evaluation of the underlying risk factors able to affect the risk of a homicide. This information is then used to predict the most likely location of future events. The findings of this study demonstrate that past homicides, drug dealing, confiscated assets, and rivalries among groups make it possible to predict up to 85% of 2012 mafia homicides, identifying 11% of city areas at highest risk. By contrast, variables controlling for the socio-economic conditions of areas are not significantly related to the risk of homicide. Moreover, this study shows that, even in a restricted space, the same risk factors may combine in different ways, giving rise to areas of equal risk but requiring targeted remedies. These results provide an effective basis for short- and long-term targeted policing strategies against organized crime- and gang-related violence. A similar approach may also provide practitioners, policy makers, and local administrators in other countries with significant support in understanding and counteracting also other forms of violent behavior by gangs or organized crime groups