Turkish Delight: Does Turkey's Accession to the EU Bring Economic Benefits?

Der Aufsatz untersucht die wirtschaftlichen Folgen eines möglichen Beitritts der Türkei zur Euro-päischen Union. Das Schwergewicht liegt auf den drei wichtigsten Veränderungen, die mit einer Mit-gliedschaft der Türkei einhergehen würden: (i) Zugang zum europäischen Binnenmarkt; (ii) Refor-men der türkischen Institutionen als Folge der EU-Mitgliedschaft; und (iii) Migration infolge der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer. Die makroökonomischen Folgen für die EU-Länder sind gering, aber positiv. Europäische Exporte werden um ca. 20% steigen. Für die Türkei werden die wirtschaft-lichen Gewinne höher sein als für die EU. Es wird geschätzt, dass die Konsumausgaben pro Kopf als Folge des Zugangs zum europäischen Binnenmarkt und der Freizügigkeit der Arbeitnehmer um etwa 4% steigen werden. Wenn es der Türkei gelingt, die internen Institutionen zu ändern, könnte der Konsum um weitere 9% steigen. Diese Gewinne würden sich auch auf die EU auswirken. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

TRADE OPENNESS: AN AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE

Australia's external trade is relatively low compared with the size of its economy. Indeed, Australia's openness ratio (exports plus imports as a proportion of GDP) in 2002 was the third-lowest among the 30�OECD countries. This paper seeks to understand Australia's low openness by analysing the empirical determinants of aggregate country trade. We present an equation for country openness which explains a substantial amount of the cross-country variation. The most important explanators of openness are population and a measure of distance to potential trade partners. Countries with larger populations trade less, as do countries that are relatively more remote. Furthermore, after controlling for trade policy there is little evidence of a positive correlation between openness and economic development. The openness equation suggests that Australia's level of trade is relatively close to what would be expected. The most important factors in explaining Australia's low openness ratio are its large geographic size and distance to the rest of the world. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University.

Produtos agropecuários: para quem exportar?

Este trabalho procurou discutir fatores de atração das exportações agropecuárias brasileiras. Para tal implementou-se um modelo gravitacional acrescido de procedimentos econométricos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios, além da abordagem por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO). As principais variáveis identificadas como determinantes dessas exportações foram a distância para os mercados de destino, o PIB dos parceiros comerciais e a localização geográfica do país importador. Ademais, verificaram-se efeitos puzzles para a taxa de câmbio, o perfil agroexportador do país importador e a participação do setor agrícola na economia de destino. Por fim, o trabalho realça uma diferenciação das variáveis relevantes em função de características específicas dos parceiros comerciais brasileiros.<br>The paper discussed the main factors that explain the Brazilian agricultural exports. In order to achieve this goal, the paper applied a gravity model that includes fixed and random effects estimations, besides the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach. Distance, trade partners' GDP, and geographical localization were the significant variables. Moreover, puzzle effects are associated to exchange rate, partners' agricultural exports profile and the partners' agricultural share in GDP. Finally, this study highlights the potential change of the relevant variables because of specific characteristics of each commercial Brazilian partner