Should monetary policy respond to private sector expectations?

This work analyses the implications, in terms of determinacy and E-stability of equilibrium, of a policy rule that responds to private sector expectations in forward looking models. In the literature, this type of policy has been both recommended and criticized. We try to understand the reasons for such di¤erent conclusions and shed some light on the desirability of this type of policy rules.Monetary policy; expectations; learning; determinacy; E- stability.

Beyond the static money multiplier: in search of a dynamic theory of money

In this paper, we analyze the process of money creation in a credit economy. We start from the consideration that the traditional money multiplier is a poor description of this process and present an alternative and dynamic approach that takes into account the heterogeneity of agents in the economy and their interactions. We show that this heterogeneity can account for the instability of the multiplier and that it can make the system path-dependent. By using concepts and techniques borrowed from network theory and statistical mechanics, we then try to shed some light on the actual process by which money is endogenously created in an economy.Money; Money multiplier; Network theory; Statistical mechanics.

Was Bernanke Right? Targeting Asset Prices may not be a Good Idea after all

Should the central bank prevent “excessive” asset price dynamics or should it wait until the boom spontaneously turns into a crash and intervene only afterwards? The debate over this issue goes back at least to the exchange between Bernanke-Gertler (BG) and Cecchetti but has not settled yet. In their 1999 paper BG claimed that price stability and financial stability are ‘highly complementary and mutually consistent objectives’ in a flexible inflation targeting regime which ‘dictates that central banks ... should not respond to changes in asset prices, except insofar as they signal changes in expected inflation.’ (BG, 1999, p.18). This conclusion is straightforward within the variant of the NK-DSGE framework used by BG in which asset inflation shows up as a factor ‘augmenting’ the IS curve. In the present paper, we pursue a different modelling strategy so that, in the end, asset price dynamics will be incorporated into the NK Phillips curve. In our context it is not true anymore that by focusing on inflation the central bank is also checking an asset price boom. We put ourselves, therefore, in the best position to obtain a significant stabilizing role for asset price targeting. It turns out, however, that inflation volatility is higher in the asset price targeting case. After all, therefore, targeting asset prices may not be a good idea.cost channel, asset prices, Taylor rules

On the Initialization of Adaptive Learning in Macroeconomic Models

We review and evaluate methods previously adopted in the applied literature of adaptive learning in order to initialize agents’ beliefs. Previous methods are classified into three broad classes: equilibrium-related, training sample-based, and estimation-based. We conduct several simulations comparing the accuracy of the initial estimates provided by these methods and how they affect the accuracy of other estimated model parameters. We find evidence against their joint estimation with standard moment conditions: as the accuracy of estimated initials tends to deteriorate with the sample size, spillover effects also deteriorate the accuracy of the estimates of the model’s structural parameters. We show how this problem can be attenuated by penalizing the variance of estimation errors. Even so, the joint estimation of learning initials with other model parameters is still subject to severe distortions in small samples. We find that equilibrium-related and training sample-based initials are less prone to these issues. We also demonstrate the empirical relevance of our results by estimating a New Keynesian Phillips curve with learning, where we find that our estimation approach provides robustness to the initialization of learning. That allows us to conclude that under adaptive learning the degree of price stickiness is lower compared to inferences under rational expectations, whereas the fraction of backward looking price setters increases

E-learning for accountability in nonprofit organizations A networked collaborative learning experience for managers of Blood Donors’ organizations

AbstractThis paper would like to investigate how nonprofit organizations interpret and use tools of accountability to benefit management. We would like to propose a specific model of financial and social reporting. This model was tested in a Networked Collaborative Learning “experiment” conducted on blood donors’ organizations in the Abruzzo Region (Italy). The managers of these organizations have interacted in a virtual learning environment using the digital format of Social Report created with Adobe LiveCycle Designer and they have cooperated in network through the use of different e-learning tools

A probabilistic interpretation of the constant gain algorithm

This paper proposes a novel interpretation of the constant gain learning algorithm through a probabilistic setting with Bayesian updating. Such framework allows to understand the gain coefficient in terms of the probability of changes in the estimated quantity

A probabilistic interpretation of the constant gain algorithm

This paper proposes a novel interpretation of the constant gain learning algorithm through a probabilistic setting with Bayesian updating. Such framework allows to understand the gain coefficient in terms of the probability of changes in the estimated quantity

Uncertainty, sentiments and time-varying risk premia

Why are stock prices much more volatile than the underlying dividends? The excess volatility of prices can in principle be attributed to two different causes: time-varying discount rates for expected future dividends, arising from variation in risk premia; or the irrational exuberance of investors, bidding prices up and down even in the absence of changes in the underlying value of the asset. No consensus has so far emerged among economists as to the prevalence of one or the other source of price variation. I propose in this paper a novel way to approach this problem, by identifying changes in the uncertainty faced by investors regarding the fundamental value of an asset and exploiting the different response in prices that such changes in uncertainty would generate through sentiments or risk premia. I then apply this framework to the S&P 500 index from 1872 till 2019: the positive correlation found between uncertainty and prices (or, equivalently, the negative correlation between uncertainty and implied risk premia) is not compatible with rational investors' behavior and suggests instead the presence of a significant sentiments component in stock prices