Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level

Optimal Design of Intervention Studies to Prevent Influenza in Healthy Cohorts

Background: Influenza cohort studies, in which participants are monitored for infection over an epidemic period, are invaluable in assessing the effectiveness of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Influenza infections and illnesses can be identified through a number of approaches with different costs and logistical requirements. Methodology and Principal Findings: In the context of a randomized controlled trial of an NPI with a constrained budget, we used a simulation approach to examine which approaches to measuring outcomes could provide greater statistical power to identify an effective intervention against confirmed influenza. We found that for a short epidemic season, the optimal design was to collect respiratory specimens at biweekly intervals, as well as following report of acute respiratory illness (ARI), for virologic testing by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Collection of respiratory specimens only from individuals reporting ARI was also an efficient design particularly for studies in settings with longer periods of influenza activity. Collection of specimens only from individuals reporting a febrile ARI was less efficient. Collection and testing of sera before and after influenza activity appeared to be inferior to collection of respiratory specimens for RT-PCR confirmation of acute infections. The performance of RT-PCR was robust to uncertainty in the costs and diagnostic performance of RT-PCR and serological tests

Structural equation modeling in medical research: a primer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a set of statistical techniques used to measure and analyze the relationships of observed and latent variables. Similar but more powerful than regression analyses, it examines linear causal relationships among variables, while simultaneously accounting for measurement error. The purpose of the present paper is to explicate SEM to medical and health sciences researchers and exemplify their application.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>To facilitate its use we provide a series of steps for applying SEM to research problems. We then present three examples of how SEM has been utilized in medical and health sciences research.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When many considerations are given to research planning, SEM can provide a new perspective on analyzing data and potential for advancing research in medical and health sciences.</p

Safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity of an inactivated influenza vaccine in healthy adults: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial over two influenza seasons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Seasonal influenza imposes a substantial personal morbidity and societal cost burden. Vaccination is the major strategy for influenza prevention; however, because antigenically drifted influenza A and B viruses circulate annually, influenza vaccines must be updated to provide protection against the predicted prevalent strains for the next influenza season. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy, safety, reactogenicity, and immunogenicity of a trivalent inactivated split virion influenza vaccine (TIV) in healthy adults over two influenza seasons in the US.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The primary endpoint of this double-blind, randomized study was the average efficacy of TIV versus placebo for the prevention of vaccine-matched, culture-confirmed influenza (VMCCI) across the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 influenza seasons. Secondary endpoints included the prevention of laboratory-confirmed (defined by culture and/or serology) influenza, as well as safety, reactogenicity, immunogenicity, and consistency between three consecutive vaccine lots. Participants were assessed actively during both influenza seasons, and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected for viral culture from individuals with influenza-like illness. Blood specimens were obtained for serology one month after vaccination and at the end of each influenza season's surveillance period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although the point estimate for efficacy in the prevention of all laboratory-confirmed influenza was 63.2% (97.5% confidence interval [CI] lower bound of 48.2%), the point estimate for the primary endpoint, efficacy of TIV against VMCCI across both influenza seasons, was 46.3% with a 97.5% CI lower bound of 9.8%. This did not satisfy the pre-specified success criterion of a one-sided 97.5% CI lower bound of >35% for vaccine efficacy. The VMCCI attack rates were very low overall at 0.6% and 1.2% in the TIV and placebo groups, respectively. Apart from a mismatch for influenza B virus lineage in 2005-2006, there was a good match between TIV and the circulating strains. TIV was highly immunogenic, and immune responses were consistent between three different TIV lots. The most common reactogenicity events and spontaneous adverse events were associated with the injection site, and were mild in severity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite a good immune response, and an average efficacy over two influenza seasons against laboratory-confirmed influenza of 63.2%, the pre-specified target (lower one-sided 97.5% confidence bound for efficacy > 35%) for the primary efficacy endpoint, the prevention of VMCCI, was not met. However, the results should be interpreted with caution in view of the very low attack rates we observed at the study sites in the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007, which corresponded to relatively mild influenza seasons in the US. Overall, the results showed that TIV has an acceptable safety profile and offered clinical benefit that exceeded risk.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00216242</p

Intradermal influenza vaccination of healthy adults using a new microinjection system: a 3-year randomised controlled safety and immunogenicity trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intradermal vaccination provides direct and potentially more efficient access to the immune system via specialised dendritic cells and draining lymphatic vessels. We investigated the immunogenicity and safety during 3 successive years of different dosages of a trivalent, inactivated, split-virion vaccine against seasonal influenza given intradermally using a microinjection system compared with an intramuscular control vaccine.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a randomised, partially blinded, controlled study, healthy volunteers (1150 aged 18 to 57 years at enrolment) received three annual vaccinations of intradermal or intramuscular vaccine. In Year 1, subjects were randomised to one of three groups: 3 μg or 6 μg haemagglutinin/strain/dose of inactivated influenza vaccine intradermally, or a licensed inactivated influenza vaccine intramuscularly containing 15 μg/strain/dose. In Year 2 subjects were randomised again to one of two groups: 9 μg/strain/dose intradermally or 15 μg intramuscularly. In Year 3 subjects were randomised a third time to one of two groups: 9 μg intradermally or 15 μg intramuscularly. Randomisation lists in Year 1 were stratified for site. Randomisation lists in Years 2 and 3 were stratified for site and by vaccine received in previous years to ensure the inclusion of a comparable number of subjects in a vaccine group at each centre each year. Immunogenicity was assessed 21 days after each vaccination. Safety was assessed throughout the study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Years 2 and 3, 9 μg intradermal was comparably immunogenic to 15 μg intramuscular for all strains, and both vaccines met European requirements for annual licensing of influenza vaccines. The 3 μg and 6 μg intradermal formulations were less immunogenic than intramuscular 15 μg. Safety of the intradermal and intramuscular vaccinations was comparable in each year of the study. Injection site erythema and swelling was more common with the intradermal route.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An influenza vaccine with 9 μg of haemagglutinin/strain given using an intradermal microinjection system showed comparable immunogenic and safety profiles to a licensed intramuscular vaccine, and presents a promising alternative to intramuscular vaccination for influenza for adults younger than 60 years.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00703651.</p

What can global health institutions do to help strengthen health systems in low income countries?

Weaknesses in health systems contribute to a failure to improve health outcomes in developing countries, despite increased official development assistance. Changes in the demands on health systems, as well as their scope to respond, mean that the situation is likely to become more problematic in the future. Diverse global initiatives seek to strengthen health systems, but progress will require better coordination between them, use of strategies based on the best available evidence obtained especially from evaluation of large scale programs, and improved global aid architecture that supports these processes. This paper sets out the case for global leadership to support health systems investments and help ensure the synergies between vertical and horizontal programs that are essential for effective functioning of health systems. At national level, it is essential to increase capacity to manage and deliver services, situate interventions firmly within national strategies, ensure effective implementation, and co-ordinate external support with local resources. Health systems performance should be monitored, with clear lines of accountability, and reforms should build on evidence of what works in what circumstances

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10–24 years in the EU, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU. Methods Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State. Findings In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4–39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10–24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62–4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25–298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56–2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96–2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10–24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04–12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53–8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78–10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63–7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10–24 years substantially decreased (–40·41% [–43·00 to –37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (–40·56% [–43·16 to –37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (rs=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (rs=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (rs=–0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (rs=–0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (rs=–0·61, p=0·0005). Interpretation NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation