A world without farmers? Food production, inclusive development and ecology: Historical Evidences for a New Deal

This paper questions the perspective of a "world without agriculture" which underpins the economic paradigm of "structural transformation" and "modern growth". It does so by recomposing worldwide land and labour productivity trends in caloric terms from 1961 to 2007 and by providing an heuristic model showing that the "Lewis Path" to prosperity is only one out of four possible pathways. It shows that more than half of the world population is rather embarked in a "Lewis Trap" where farmers are increasingly numerous and relatively poorer. It highlights how land scarcity and insufficient job opportunities outside agriculture prevent them to increase their labour productivity and incomes with motorized machineries. The emerging paradigm of "ecological intensification" might contribute to overcome the current deadlocks by redirecting worldwide R&D towards small-scale knowledge-intensive and context-specific agricultures overlapping the manufacture and service sectors. (Résumé d'auteur

Cereal supplies in rural families of the Senegalese Groundnut Basin. Who is responsible for meeting family food needs ?

In the traditional operation of production-consumption groups in rural areas of Senegal, the group chief, or Borom njël, has a social duty to make sure family food needs are met. His ability to do this is supported by certain social rules governing these groups, and by a favourable environment. However, various changes have now adversely affected the environment. These changes prompted us to assess the Borom njel's current ability to go on playing his social rule as a food provider. From data collected in two villages of the Senegalese Groundnut Basin, using multivariate analysis, we identified three production-consumption group profiles according to how the Borom njel ensured main cereal supplies: (i) market purchase with migrants' remittances; (ii) home production and (iii) market purchase with own resources. The ability of the Borom njël to ensure cereal supplies differed according to the profile. We used a multivariate logit model to study the determinants affecting the Borom njel's ability to ensure cereal supplies for the production-consumption group. We found that physical assets and wage labour employment increased this ability. We also found that agricultural income, including livestock, was positively correlated to the likelihood of the Borom njël successfully ensuring cereal supplies, particularly those depending heavily on own production. Additional income earned by the Borom njel from non-agricultural activity had the same positive effect, particularly when ensuring cereals provision through market purchase. We end with some thoughts on the increasing reliance of Borom njels on migrants remittances to ensure that family cereal needs are met.Senegal, Groundnut Basin, Cereal supplies, consumption-production groups, multinomial logit, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,