Support vector machine versus logistic regression modeling for prediction of hospital mortality in critically ill patients with haematological malignancies

Background: Several models for mortality prediction have been constructed for critically ill patients with haematological malignancies in recent years. These models have proven to be equally or more accurate in predicting hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancies than ICU severity of illness scores such as the APACHE II or SAPS II [1]. The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of predicting hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to the ICU between models based on multiple logistic regression (MLR) and support vector machine (SVM) based models. Methods: 352 patients with haematological malignancies admitted to the ICU between 1997 and 2006 for a life-threatening complication were included. 252 patient records were used for training of the models and 100 were used for validation. In a first model 12 input variables were included for comparison between MLR and SVM. In a second more complex model 17 input variables were used. MLR and SVM analysis were performed independently from each other. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (+/- SE). Results: The area under ROC curve for the MLR and SVM in the validation data set were 0.768 (+/- 0.04) vs. 0.802 (+/- 0.04) in the first model (p = 0.19) and 0.781 (+/- 0.05) vs. 0.808 (+/- 0.04) in the second more complex model (p = 0.44). SVM needed only 4 variables to make its prediction in both models, whereas MLR needed 7 and 8 variables in the first and second model respectively. Conclusion: The discriminative power of both the MLR and SVM models was good. No statistically significant differences were found in discriminative power between MLR and SVM for prediction of hospital mortality in critically ill patients with haematological malignancies

Systemic Risk and the Ripple Effect in the Supply Chain

Supply chains are highly complex systems, and disruptions may ripple through these systems in unexpected ways, but they may also start in unexpected ways. We investigate the causes of ripple effect through the lens of systemic risk. We derive supply chain systemic risk from the finance discipline where sources of risk are found in systemic risk-taking, contagion, and amplification mechanisms. In a supply chain context, we identify three dimensions that influence systemic risk, the nature of a disruption, the structure, and dependency of the supply chain, and the decision-making. Within these three dimensions, there are several factors including correlation of risk, compounding effects, cyclical linkages, counterparty risk, herding behavior, and misaligned incentives. These factors are often invisible to decision makers, and they may operate in tandem to exacerbate ripple effect. We highlight these systemic risks, and we encourage further research to understand their nature and to mitigate their effect

Successful treatment of HIV-associated multicentric Castleman's disease and multiple organ failure with rituximab and supportive care: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Multicentric Castleman's Disease (MCD), a lymphoproliferative disorder associated with Human Herpes Virus-8 (HHV-8) infection, is increasing in incidence amongst HIV patients. This condition is associated with lymphadenopathy, polyclonal gammopathy, hepato-splenomegaly and systemic symptoms. A number of small studies have demonstrated the efficacy of the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, rituximab, in treating this condition.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 46 year old Zambian woman who presented with pyrexia, diarrhoea and vomiting, confusion, lymphadenopathy, and renal failure. She rapidly developed multiple organ failure following the initiation of treatment of MCD with rituximab. Following admission to intensive care (ICU), she received prompt multi-organ support. After 21 days on the ICU she returned to the haematology medical ward, and was discharged in remission from her disease after 149 days in hospital.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Rituximab, the efficacy of which has thus far been examined predominantly in patients <it>outside </it>the ICU, in conjunction with extensive organ support was effective treatment for MCD with associated multiple organ failure. There is, to our knowledge, only one other published report of its successful use in an ICU setting, where it was combined with cyclophosphamide, adriamycin and prednisolone. Reports such as ours support the notion that critically unwell patients with HIV and haematological disease <it>can </it>benefit from intensive care.</p

Intensive care of the cancer patient: recent achievements and remaining challenges

A few decades have passed since intensive care unit (ICU) beds have been available for critically ill patients with cancer. Although the initial reports showed dismal prognosis, recent data suggest that an increased number of patients with solid and hematological malignancies benefit from intensive care support, with dramatically decreased mortality rates. Advances in the management of the underlying malignancies and support of organ dysfunctions have led to survival gains in patients with life-threatening complications from the malignancy itself, as well as infectious and toxic adverse effects related to the oncological treatments. In this review, we will appraise the prognostic factors and discuss the overall perspective related to the management of critically ill patients with cancer. The prognostic significance of certain factors has changed over time. For example, neutropenia or autologous bone marrow transplantation (BMT) have less adverse prognostic implications than two decades ago. Similarly, because hematologists and oncologists select patients for ICU admission based on the characteristics of the malignancy, the underlying malignancy rarely influences short-term survival after ICU admission. Since the recent data do not clearly support the benefit of ICU support to unselected critically ill allogeneic BMT recipients, more outcome research is needed in this subgroup. Because of the overall increased survival that has been reported in critically ill patients with cancer, we outline an easy-to-use and evidence-based ICU admission triage criteria that may help avoid depriving life support to patients with cancer who can benefit. Lastly, we propose a research agenda to address unanswered questions

Outcome in patients perceived as receiving excessive care across different ethical climates: a prospective study in 68 intensive care units in Europe and the USA.

PURPOSE: Whether the quality of the ethical climate in the intensive care unit (ICU) improves the identification of patients receiving excessive care and affects patient outcomes is unknown. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, perceptions of excessive care (PECs) by clinicians working in 68 ICUs in Europe and the USA were collected daily during a 28-day period. The quality of the ethical climate in the ICUs was assessed via a validated questionnaire. We compared the combined endpoint (death, not at home or poor quality of life at 1 year) of patients with PECs and the time from PECs until written treatment-limitation decisions (TLDs) and death across the four climates defined via cluster analysis. RESULTS: Of the 4747 eligible clinicians, 2992 (63%) evaluated the ethical climate in their ICU. Of the 321 and 623 patients not admitted for monitoring only in ICUs with a good (n = 12, 18%) and poor (n = 24, 35%) climate, 36 (11%) and 74 (12%), respectively were identified with PECs by at least two clinicians. Of the 35 and 71 identified patients with an available combined endpoint, 100% (95% CI 90.0-1.00) and 85.9% (75.4-92.0) (P = 0.02) attained that endpoint. The risk of death (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.20-2.92) or receiving a written TLD (HR 2.32, CI 1.11-4.85) in patients with PECs by at least two clinicians was higher in ICUs with a good climate than in those with a poor one. The differences between ICUs with an average climate, with (n = 12, 18%) or without (n = 20, 29%) nursing involvement at the end of life, and ICUs with a poor climate were less obvious but still in favour of the former. CONCLUSION: Enhancing the quality of the ethical climate in the ICU may improve both the identification of patients receiving excessive care and the decision-making process at the end of life

Evaluation of a minimally invasive cell sampling device coupled with assessment of trefoil factor 3 expression for diagnosing Barrett's esophagus: a multi-center case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a commonly undiagnosed condition that predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma. Routine endoscopic screening for BE is not recommended because of the burden this would impose on the health care system. The objective of this study was to determine whether a novel approach using a minimally invasive cell sampling device, the Cytosponge, coupled with immunohistochemical staining for the biomarker Trefoil Factor 3 (TFF3), could be used to identify patients who warrant endoscopy to diagnose BE. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A case-control study was performed across 11 UK hospitals between July 2011 and December 2013. In total, 1,110 individuals comprising 463 controls with dyspepsia and reflux symptoms and 647 BE cases swallowed a Cytosponge prior to endoscopy. The primary outcome measures were to evaluate the safety, acceptability, and accuracy of the Cytosponge-TFF3 test compared with endoscopy and biopsy. In all, 1,042 (93.9%) patients successfully swallowed the Cytosponge, and no serious adverse events were attributed to the device. The Cytosponge was rated favorably, using a visual analogue scale, compared with endoscopy (p < 0.001), and patients who were not sedated for endoscopy were more likely to rate the Cytosponge higher than endoscopy (Mann-Whitney test, p < 0.001). The overall sensitivity of the test was 79.9% (95% CI 76.4%-83.0%), increasing to 87.2% (95% CI 83.0%-90.6%) for patients with ≥3 cm of circumferential BE, known to confer a higher cancer risk. The sensitivity increased to 89.7% (95% CI 82.3%-94.8%) in 107 patients who swallowed the device twice during the study course. There was no loss of sensitivity in patients with dysplasia. The specificity for diagnosing BE was 92.4% (95% CI 89.5%-94.7%). The case-control design of the study means that the results are not generalizable to a primary care population. Another limitation is that the acceptability data were limited to a single measure. CONCLUSIONS: The Cytosponge-TFF3 test is safe and acceptable, and has accuracy comparable to other screening tests. This test may be a simple and inexpensive approach to identify patients with reflux symptoms who warrant endoscopy to diagnose BE