Marriage Patterns in the United States

This paper analyzes cohort marriage patterns in the United States in order to determine whether declining rates of first marriage are due to changes in the timing of marriage, the incidence of marriage, or both. Parametric models, which are well-suited to the analysis of censored or truncated data, are fit separately to information on age at first marriage derived from three data sets which were collected independently and at different points in time. Extended versions of the models are also estimated in which the parameters of the model distributions are allowed to depend on social and, economic variables.The results provide evidence that the incidence of first marriage is declining and that there is only a slight tendency for women to delay marriage. In addition, education is the most important correlate of decisions about the timing of first marriage whereas race is the most important correlate of decisions about its incidence.

Do Households Use Remittances to Account for Lost Income from Environmental Shocks?

With the proliferation of global climate change, farmers in economically developing countries find it becomes ever more difficult to meet basic needs. Often times, access to formal insurance markets, such as the markets we see in America today, in developing countries is minimal and households find that they must use informal insurance mechanisms in order to help mediate their risk. My research asks whether households in Thailand send migrants out with the intention of receiving income from these family members in order to account for potentially lost income during years that crop yield is notably lower because of unexpected environmental changes. I answer this question by estimating a two stage least squares model with environmental shocks as the instrumental variable. My project fills the current gaps in the literature by looking at the effects of long-term environmental shocks versus short-term environmental shocks on the change in income from remittances. I also contribute to the current literature by focusing on the impact of migrants that are still living and working within the country but outside of the household

Race, Democracy and the American Civil War in the County of Yorkshire

Between the shelling of Fort Sumter and the fall of Richmond, the British public followed closely the course of the Civil War in the United States. However, the themes of race and popular government typically associated with the war were not isolated to the American context. Over the course of the 1850s and 1860s, contemporary understandings of such themes were continually tested, challenged, and rebuilt in the light of international developments. In order to better understand these themes, this thesis interweaves two historical strands. On the one hand, it explores responses to global events during the period: not just the American Civil War, but wars with China, rebellions in India, New Zealand and Jamaica, nationalist movements in continental Europe, and the transnational independence campaign of the Irish Fenians. On the other, it examines the domestic debate about the extension of the franchise, from the failure of Conservative and Liberal bills in 1859-60, to the eventual passage of the Second Reform Act in 1867. Based on a case study of the large, influential and diverse county of Yorkshire, the thesis considers the extent to which a national intellectual culture existed in Britain at the time. In doing so, it examines the mechanisms by which new views of race and democracy were disseminated at the popular, provincial level

Welfare Reform and Changes in the Economic Well-Being of Children

Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are their more educated counterparts.

Commitment and the Modern Union: Assessing the Link Between Premarital Cohabitation and Subsequent Marital Stability

In recent years, the incidence of premarital cohabitation has increased dramatically in many countries of Western Europe and in the United States. As cohabitation becomes a more common experience, it is increasingly important to understand the links between cohabitation and other steps in the process of family formation and dissolution. We focus on the relationship between pre- marital cohabitation and subsequent marital stability, and analyze data from the 1981 Women in Sweden survey using a hazards model approach. Our results indicate that women who premaritally cohabit have almost 80 percent higher marital dissolution rates than those who do not cohabit. Women who cohabit for over three years prior to marriage have over 50 percent higher dissolution rates than women who cohabit for shorter durations. Last, cohabitors and non-cohabitors whose marriages have remained intact for eight years appear to have identical dissolution rates after that time. In addition, we provide evidence that strongly suggests a weaker commitment, on the part of those who cohabit premaritally, to the institution of marriage.

Aircraft thrust control

An integrated control system for coaxial counterrotating aircraft propulsors driven by a common gas turbine engine. The system establishes an engine pressure ratio by control of fuel flow and uses the established pressure ratio to set propulsor speed. Propulsor speed is set by adjustment of blade pitch