Systematic review of the utility of the frailty index and frailty phenotype to predict all-cause mortality in older people

Background: Current guidelines for healthcare of community-dwelling older people advocate screening for frailty to predict adverse health outcomes, but there is no consensus on the optimum instrument to use in such settings. The objective of this systematic review of population studies was to compare the ability of the frailty index (FI) and frailty phenotype (FP) instruments to predict all-cause mortality in older people. Methods: Studies published before 27 July 2022 were identified using Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science and CINAHL databases. The eligibility criteria were population-based prospective studies of community-dwelling older adults (aged 65 years or older) and evaluation of both the FI and FP for prediction of all-cause mortality. The Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network’s Methodology checklist was used to assess study quality. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) were compared, and the proportions of included studies that achieved acceptable discriminatory power (AUC>0.7) were calculated for each frailty instrument. The results were stratified by the use of continuous or categorical formats of each instrument. The review was reported in accordance with the PRISMA and SWiM guidelines. Results: Among 8 studies (range: 909 to 7713 participants), both FI and FP had comparable predictive power for all-cause mortality. The AUC values ranged from 0.66 to 0.84 for FI continuous, 0.60 to 0.80 for FI categorical, 0.63 to 0.80 for FP continuous and 0.57 to 0.79 for FP categorical. The proportion of studies achieving acceptable discriminatory power were 75%, 50%, 63%, and 50%, respectively. The predictive ability of each frailty instrument was unaltered by the number of included items. Conclusions: Despite differences in their content, both the FI and FP instruments had modest but comparable ability to predict all-cause mortality. The use of continuous rather than categorical formats in either instrument enhanced their ability to predict all-cause mortality

DAS28(3)CRP is a reliable measure of disease activity in pregnant women with rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVES: The disease activity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in pregnancy is most commonly assessed with the modified Disease Activity Score (DAS)-28, the DAS28(3)CRP. However, the performance of the DAS28(3)CRP in pregnancy has not been compared to musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSK-US) as a gold standard. We performed a prospective pilot study to test the hypothesis that pregnancy-related factors limit the reliability of the DAS28(3)CRP. METHODS: Pregnant women with RA were recruited from an Obstetric Rheumatology clinic and assessed during pregnancy (second (T2) and third (T3) trimesters) and postpartum with DAS28(3)CRP and MSK-US scores, with quantification of power Doppler (PD) signal in small joints (hands and feet). Age-matched non-pregnant women with RA underwent equivalent assessments. PD scores were calculated as mean scores of all joints scanned. RESULTS: We recruited 27 pregnant and 20 non-pregnant women with RA. DAS28(3)CRP was sensitive and specific for active RA in pregnancy and postpartum as defined by positive PD signal, but not in non-pregnancy. There were significant correlations between DAS28(3)CRP and PD scores throughout pregnancy (T2, r=0.82 (95% CI [0.42, 0.95], p<0.01); T3, r=0.68 (95% CI [0.38, 0.86], p<0.01)) and postpartum, r=0.84 (95% CI [0.60, 0.94], p<0.01), while this correlation in non-pregnancy was weaker (r=0.47 (95% CI [0, 0.77], p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study found that DAS28(3)CRP is a reliable measure of disease activity in pregnant women with RA. Based on these data, pregnancy does not appear to confound clinical evaluation of the tender and/or swollen joint counts

Variation in the Neisseria lactamica porin, and its relationship to meningococcal PorB

One potential vaccine strategy in the fight against meningococcal disease involves the exploitation of outer-membrane components of Neisseria lactamica, a commensal bacterium closely related to the meningococcus, Neisseria meningitidis. Although N. lactamica shares many surface structures with the meningococcus, little is known about the antigenic diversity of this commensal bacterium or the antigenic relationships between N. lactamica and N. meningitidis. Here, the N. lactamica porin protein (Por) was examined and compared to the related PorB antigens of N. meningitidis, to investigate potential involvement in anti-meningococcal immunity. Relationships among porin sequences were determined using distance-based methods and FST, and maximum-likelihood analyses were used to compare the selection pressures acting on the encoded proteins. These analyses demonstrated that the N. lactamica porin was less diverse than meningococcal PorB and although it was subject to positive selection, this was not as strong as the positive selection pressures acting on the meningococcal porin. In addition, the N. lactamica porin gene sequences and the protein sequences of the loop regions predicted to be exposed to the human immune system were dissimilar to the corresponding sequences in the meningococcus. This suggests that N. lactamica Por, contrary to previous suggestions, may have limited involvement in the development of natural immunity to meningococcal disease and might not be effective as a meningococcal vaccine component

Risk prediction in patients with heart failure: A systematic review and analysis

Objectives This study sought to review the literature for risk prediction models in patients with heart failure and to identify the most consistently reported independent predictors of risk across models. Background Risk assessment provides information about patient prognosis, guides decision making about the type and intensity of care, and enables better understanding of provider performance. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 1995 to March 2013, followed by hand searches of the retrieved reference lists. Studies were eligible if they reported at least 1 multivariable model for risk prediction of death, hospitalization, or both in patients with heart failure and reported model performance. We ranked reported individual risk predictors by their strength of association with the outcome and assessed the association of model performance with study characteristics. Results Sixty-four main models and 50 modifications from 48 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of the 64 main models, 43 models predicted death, 10 hospitalization, and 11 death or hospitalization. The discriminatory ability of the models for prediction of death appeared to be higher than that for prediction of death or hospitalization or prediction of hospitalization alone (p = 0.0003). A wide variation between studies in clinical settings, population characteristics, sample size, and variables used for model development was observed, but these features were not significantly associated with the discriminatory performance of the models. A few strong predictors emerged for prediction of death; the most consistently reported predictors were age, renal function, blood pressure, blood sodium level, left ventricular ejection fraction, sex, brain natriuretic peptide level, New York Heart Association functional class, diabetes, weight or body mass index, and exercise capacity. Conclusions There are several clinically useful and well-validated death prediction models in patients with heart failure. Although the studies differed in many respects, the models largely included a few common markers of risk

Genetic susceptibility, elevated blood pressure and risk of atrial fibrillation:A Mendelian randomization study

Background: Whether elevated blood pressure (BP) is a modifiable risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) is not established. We tested (1) whether the association between BP and risk of AF is causal, (2) whether it varies according to individual&#x2019;s genetic susceptibility for AF, and (3) the extent to which specific BP-lowering drugs are expected to reduce this risk. Methods: First, causality of association was assessed through two-sample Mendelian randomization, using data from two independent genome-wide association studies that included a total of one million European population. Second, the UK Biobank data of 329,237 participants at baseline was used to study the effect of BP on AF according to genetic susceptibility of developing AF. Third, a possible treatment effect with major BP-lowering drug classes on AF risk was predicted through genetic variants in genes encode the therapeutic targets of each drug class. Estimated drug effects were compared with effects on incident coronary heart disease, for which direct trial evidence exists. Results: The two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis indicated that, on average, exposure to a higher systolic BP increased the risk of AF by 19% (odds ratio per each 10-mm Hg [OR]: 1.19 [1.12 to 1.27]). This association was replicated in the UK biobank using individual participant data. However, in a further genetic risk-stratified analysis, there was evidence for a linear gradient in the relative effects of systolic BP on AF; while there was no conclusive evidence of an effect in those with low genetic risk, a strong effect was observed among those with high genetic susceptibility for AF. The comparison of predicted treatment effects using genetic proxies for three main drug classes (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers and calcium channel blockers) suggested similar average effects for the prevention of atrial fibrillation and coronary heart disease. Conclusions: The effect of elevated BP on the risk of AF is likely to be causal, suggesting that BP-lowering treatment may be effective in AF prevention. However, average effects masked clinically important variations, with a more pronounced effect in individuals with high genetic susceptibility risk for AF

Associations of Skeletal Muscle Mass and Fat Mass With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study of UK Biobank Participants.

Background There is debate whether body mass index is a good predictor of health outcomes because different tissues, namely skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and fat mass (FM), may be differentially associated with risk. We investigated the association of appendicular SMM (aSMM) and FM with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We compared their prognostic value to that of body mass index. Methods and Results We studied 356 590 UK Biobank participants aged 40 to 69 years with bioimpedance analysis data for whole-body FM and predicted limb muscle mass (to calculate aSMM). Associations between aSMM and FM with CVD and all-cause mortality were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Over 3 749 501 person-years of follow-up, there were 27 784 CVD events and 15 844 all-cause deaths. In men, aSMM was positively associated with CVD incidence (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09) and there was a curvilinear association in women. There were stronger positive associations between FM and CVD with HRs per SD of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.19-1.22) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.23-1.27) in men and women respectively. Within FM tertiles, the associations between aSMM and CVD risk largely persisted. There were J-shaped associations between aSMM and FM with all-cause mortality in both sexes. Body mass index was modestly better at discriminating CVD risk. Conclusions FM showed a strong positive association with CVD risk. The relationship of aSMM with CVD risk differed between sexes, and potential mechanisms need further investigation. Body fat and SMM bioimpedance measurements were not superior to body mass index in predicting population-level CVD incidence or all-cause mortality

Study protocol : the empirical investigation of methods to correct for measurement error in biobanks with dietary assessment

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Polar Perturbations of Self-gravitating Supermassive Global Monopoles

Spontaneous global symmetry breaking of O(3) scalar field gives rise to point-like topological defects, global monopoles. By taking into account self-gravity,the qualitative feature of the global monopole solutions depends on the vacuum expectation value v of the scalar field. When v < sqrt{1 / 8 pi}, there are global monopole solutions which have a deficit solid angle defined at infinity. When sqrt{1 / 8 pi} <= v < sqrt{3 / 8 pi}, there are global monopole solutions with the cosmological horizon, which we call the supermassive global monopole. When v >= sqrt{3 / 8 pi}, there is no nontrivial solution. It was shown that all of these solutions are stable against the spherical perturbations. In addition to the global monopole solutions, the de Sitter solutions exist for any value of v. They are stable against the spherical perturbations when v sqrt{3 / 8 pi}. We study polar perturbations of these solutions and find that all self-gravitating global monopoles are stable even against polar perturbations, independently of the existence of the cosmological horizon, while the de Sitter solutions are always unstable.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, corrected some type mistakes (already corrected in PRD version

Independent relevance of adiposity measures to coronary heart disease risk among 0.5 million adults in UK Biobank

Background: Evidence on body fat distribution shows opposing effects of waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) for coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to investigate the causality and the shape of such associations. Methods: UK Biobank is a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million adults aged 40–69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of measured and genetically predicted body mass index (BMI), WC, HC and waist-to-hip ratio with incident CHD were obtained from Cox models. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to assess causality. The analysis included 456 495 participants (26 225 first-ever CHD events) without prior CHD. Results: All measures of adiposity demonstrated strong, positive and approximately log-linear associations with CHD risk over a median follow-up of 12.7 years. For HC, however, the association became inverse given the BMI and WC (HR per usual SD 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.97). Associations for BMI and WC remained independently positive after adjustment for other adiposity measures and were similar (1.14, 1.13–1.16 and 1.18, 1.15–1.20, respectively), with WC displaying stronger associations among women. Blood pressure, plasma lipids and dysglycaemia accounted for much of the observed excess risk. MR results were generally consistent with the observational, implying causality. Conclusions: Body fat distribution measures displayed similar associations with CHD risk as BMI except for HC, which was inversely associated with CHD risk (given WC and BMI). These findings suggest that different measures of body fat distribution likely influence CHD risk through both overlapping and independent mechanisms