Micro Determinants of Labor Force Status Among Older Americans

This paper uses the first three waves of the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) to investigate the determinants of labor force status among older Americans. Using transitions at two-year intervals we find that after being retired or unemployed, those who are actively searching for a job have a higher probability of returning to work. We also find that being in good physical and mental health--measured by objective and subjective variables--increases the chances of becoming employed, as does having worked in the last twelve months. Those who are receiving disability payments are less likely to make this transition. If we focus on those who are married, we find a preference for joint leisure through the influence of the labor force status, health and age of the respondent's partner on the transition decisions. We investigate transitions in and out of employment and self-employment, and for subsamples of males and females. Using monthly employment dummies for the period 1989-97, we analyze monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual transitions and find that most of our conclusions are independent of the periodicity but that the effects of the variables vary across specifications.Labor Supply, Labor Force Transitions, Retirement Decisions, Health and Retirement Survey

Turismo gastronómico, los alimentos tradicionales como producto cultural: el caso de Aculco de Espinoza, México

En la actualidad, los alimentos se han convertido en algo que va más allá de cubrir una necesidad, hoy en día las personas se preocupan por los alimentos que consumen, asimimo, tienen interés en conocer la manera en que estos se preparan, saber acerca de las tradiciones y costumbres que involucran, así como adentrarse en los procesos de preparación. Esto también se visualiza en algunos turistas, los cuales se han vuelto más exigentes y al mismo tiempo están dispuestos a pagar más por vivir experiencias que hacen único su viaje, dichos turistas van motivados principalmente por la gastronomía, como las degustaciones, preparación de alimentos, catas, entre otros. A este tipo de turistas se les conoce como gastronómicos. En cuanto a la presente investigación tiene como objetivo analizar la relación del turismo gastronómico con los alimentos tradicionales de Aculco de Espinoza; Estado de México, desde la perspectiva de producto cultural, considerando el valor patrimonial que se le puede dar a dichos alimentos, para ser aprovechados con fines turísticos. Se retoma el modelo de Llorenç Prats (2005) empleado para la patrimonialización en torno a la activación patrimonial, la cual en la presente investigación, no sólo se pretende que los alimentos tradicionales sean puestos en valor, sino también los aspectos culturales que se reflejan en las prácticas culinarias, como son los conocimientos y usos. Considerando que el turismo contribuye a inducir la valorización de los alimentos tradicionales. Otro aspecto importante a conocer son los significados que éstos alimentos representan para los habitantes de Aculco. Por ello, la presente investigación, se basa en un enfoque mixto, sin embargo, profundiza en un enfoque cualitativo, ya que la importancia de éste reside en la valoración y significado que se les da a los alimentos tradicionales, lo cual permite conocer y analizar si estos alimentos pueden ser considerados como un producto cultural del turismo gastronómico de Aculco. Se utiliza el enfoque cuantitativo, específicamente, una encuesta aplicada a visitantes y turistas que acuden a Aculco, para identificar el perfil de dichos visitantes y determinar si el destino es considerado como turismo gastronómico o si tiene potencial para ser desarrollado

The Educated Russian's Curse: Returns to Education in the Russian Federation.

This paper uses the only representative sample of the Russian Federation, the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, to estimate the returns to education in this ex-communist country. This is one of the first studies to tackle this classic issue in labor economics with the realistic expectation of obtaining results for Russia comparable in quality and reliability to those available in developed countries and other economies in transition. Using standard regression techniques we find that the returns to education in Russia are quite low compared with those reported in the literature on countries throughout the world, in almost no specification reaching higher than 5\%. Moreover, there is virtually no improvement in returns to education in the 1992-99 period, a result somewhat at odds with the suggestion of several studies using Russian data from the early 1990s. When we instrument our main regressor using policy experiments from the 1960s, we find comparable results. We also perform a selectivity correction and discover even lower returns to education for men, although they become slightly higher for women. Additionally, we find extremely low returns to tenure, which can even become negative in certain specifications. These results present a bleak perspective for educated Russians, with negative implications for investments in education at all levels, auguring the imminent erosion of one of Russia's few assets not yet completely devalued, the human capital of its citizens.Returns to Education, Russia, Economic Transition, Instrumental Variables, Selectivity Correction

Retirement Expectations Formation Using the Health and Retirement Study

This paper examines how a wide array of factors (household and individual level financial, health and other taste shifter characteristics) influence retirement plans over time and how uncertainty affects the strategies that individuals use to plan their retirement years. Using panel data models we examine the role of health and economic factors on retirement planning using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We examine the rationality of plans for retirement controlling for sample selection. After controlling for sample selection, reporting biases, and unobserved heterogeneity we find that plans for retirement do follow the random walk hypothesis and pass tests of weak and strong rationality. These findings allow us to assume rationality and examine retirement plans using first differences. We then examine changes to those factors and the effects of new information on plans and find that new information contributes little to changes in plans. This leads us to conclude that on average people correctly form expectations over uncertain events when planning for retirement. These results have important implications for a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior. Classification-JEL: J26, J22, C23,D84 Keywords: Expectations, Retirement, Panel Data with selection, rationality

Early Retirement, Labor Supply, and Benefit Withholding: The Role of the Social Security Earnings Test

The labor supply and benefit claiming incentives provided by the early retirement rules of the Social Security Old Age benefits program are of growing importance as the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) increases to 67, the labor force participation of Older Americans rises, and a variety of reforms to the Social Security system are considered. Any reform needs to take into account the effects and rationale of the Social Security Earnings Test and the Actuarial Adjustment Factor. We describe these incentives, and analyze benefit withholding patterns using data from the Master Beneficiary Files of the Social Security Administration, and present descriptive and exploratory evidence on the determinants of benefit withholding using data from the Health and Retirement Survey. We then investigate the importance of the Earnings Test limits for work and claiming behavior using a dynamic life-cycle model of labor supply, benefit claiming, and withholding. We use the latter framework to compare the consequences of a number of changes to the Earnings Test provision for the labor supply behavior and earnings of older Americans.

Do Vehicle Recalls Reduce the Number of Accidents? The Case of the U.S. Car Market

The number of automobile recalls in the U.S. has sharply increased in the last decade and a half, and the number of units involved in these recalls are often counted in the millions. In 2006 alone, over 10.6 million vehicles were recalled in the United States. However, there is no quantitative evidence of the effect of recalls on safety. Without that evidence, the government and insurance companies have been reluctant to request and use more detailed recall information to increase correction rates. In this paper we empirically quantify the effect of vehicle recalls on safety using repeated cross-sections on accidents of individual drivers and aggregate vehicle recall data, to construct synthetic panel data on individual drivers of a particular vehicle model. We estimate the effect of recalls on the number of accidents, and find that a 10% increase in the recall rate of a particular model will reduce the accidents of that model by around 2%. Recalls classified as .hazardous,. and those initiated by foreign manufacturers are more effective in reducing accidents. We also find that vehicle models with recalls with higher correction rates have on average less accidents in the years following a recall, which indicates the importance of the role of drivers' behavior regarding recalls, on safety. The latter suggests that society as a whole, individual drivers, and insurance companies, could benefit from an initiative to take into account recall correction behavior when pricing auto insurance.Vehicle Recalls, Car accidents, Synthetic Panel Data, Auto Insurance. Classification-JEL : L62, C23

The Effects of Automobile Recalls on the Severity of Accidents

The number of automobile recalls in the U.S. has substantially increased over the last two decades, and after a record of over 30 million cars recalled in 2004, in the last few years it has consistently reached between 15 and 17 million, and in 2009 alone 16.4 million cars were recalled. Toyota's recall crisis in 2010 illustrates how recalls can affect a large number of American drivers and the defects connected to them can result in loss of life and serious accidents. However, in spite of the increase in public concern over recalls and the loss of property and life attached to them, there is no empirical evidence of the effect of vehicle recalls on safety. This paper investigates whether vehicle recalls reduce accidental harm measured by the severity of injuries in vehicle accidents. The results of our analysis show that if a recall for a new-year model is issued, then the severity of injuries of accidents continuously diminishes during the rst year after the recall, something we do not nd among cars not subject to recalls. This is because defects are repaired over time but also because drivers react by driving more carefully until the defects are fixed. To minimize the losses attached to having dangerously defective cars on our roads, both quick and timely recall issuance are needed and more detailed information on defects should be delivered to owners of defective vehicles. The latter can be made possible through simple but important policy changes by the U.S. government regarding recall information sharing with drivers and insurance companies.Automobile Recalls, Safety Regulation, Vehicle Defects, Car Accidents.

How Large are the Classification Errors in the Social Security Disability Award Process?

This paper presents an .audit. of the multistage application and appeal process that the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA) uses to determine eligibility for disability benefits from the Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs. We use a subset of individuals from the Health and Retirement Study who applied for DI or SSI benefits between 1992 and 1996, to estimate classification error rates under the hypothesis that applicants' self-reported disability status and the SSA's ultimate award decision are noisy but unbiased indicators of a latent .true disability status. indicator. We find that approximately 20% of SSI/DI applicants who are ultimately awarded benefits are not disabled, and that 60% of applicants who were denied benefits are disabled. We also construct an optimal statistical screening rule that results in significantly lower classification error rates than does SSA's current award process.Social Security Disability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income, Health and Retirement Study, Classification Errors.