Projected impacts of climate change on functional diversity of frugivorous birds along a tropical elevational gradient

Climate change forces many species to move their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations. Resulting immigration or emigration of species might lead to functional changes, e.g., in the trait distribution and composition of ecological assemblages. Here, we combined approaches from biogeography (species distribution models; SDMs) and community ecology (functional diversity) to investigate potential effects of climate-driven range changes on frugivorous bird assemblages along a 3000 m elevational gradient in the tropical Andes. We used SDMs to model current and projected future occurrence probabilities of frugivorous bird species from the lowlands to the tree line. SDM-derived probabilities of occurrence were combined with traits relevant for seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants to calculate functional dispersion (FDis; a measure of functional diversity) for current and future bird assemblages. Comparisons of FDis between current and projected future assemblages showed consistent results across four dispersal scenarios, five climate models and two representative concentration pathways. Projections indicated a decrease of FDis in the lowlands, an increase of FDis at lower mid-elevations and little changes at high elevations. This suggests that functional dispersion responds differently to global warming at different elevational levels, likely modifying avian seed dispersal functions and plant regeneration in forest ecosystems along tropical mountains

Independent variation of avian sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity along a tropical elevational gradient

Aim: How species respond to climate change is influenced by their sensitivity to climatic conditions (i.e. their climatic niche) and aspects of their adaptive capacity (e.g. their dispersal ability and ecological niche). To date, it is largely unknown whether and how species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity covary. However, understanding this relationship is important to predict the potential consequences of a changing climate for species assemblages. Here, we test how species’ sensitivity to climate change and trait-based measures of their ecological adaptive capacity (i) vary along a broad elevational gradient and (ii) covary across a large number of bird species. Location: A Neotropical elevational gradient (300–3600 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú Biosphere Reserve, south-east Peru. Methods: We focus on 215 frugivorous bird species along a Neotropical elevational gradient. We approximate species’ sensitivity to climate change by their climatic niche breadth, based on species occurrences across South America and bioclimatic variables. In addition, we use a trait-based approach to estimate the dispersal ability of species (approximated by their wing pointedness), their dietary niche breadth (approximated by bill width) and their habitat niche breadth (the number of used habitat classes). Results: We found that (i) species’ climatic niche breadth increased with elevation, while their trait-based dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with elevation, and (ii) sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity were not related across species. Main conclusions: These results suggest different mechanisms of how species in lowland and highland assemblages might respond to climate change. The independent variation of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their trait-based adaptive capacity suggests that accounting for both dimensions will improve assessments of species’ susceptibility to climate change and potential impacts of climate change on diverse species assemblages

Independent variation of avian sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity along a tropical elevational gradient

Aim: How species respond to climate change is influenced by their sensitivity to climatic conditions (i.e. their climatic niche) and aspects of their adaptive capacity (e.g. their dispersal ability and ecological niche). To date, it is largely unknown whether and how species’ sensitivity to climate change and their adaptive capacity covary. However, understanding this relationship is important to predict the potential consequences of a changing climate for species assemblages. Here, we test how species’ sensitivity to climate change and trait-based measures of their ecological adaptive capacity (i) vary along a broad elevational gradient and (ii) covary across a large number of bird species. Location: A Neotropical elevational gradient (300–3600 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú Biosphere Reserve, south-east Peru. Methods: We focus on 215 frugivorous bird species along a Neotropical elevational gradient. We approximate species’ sensitivity to climate change by their climatic niche breadth, based on species occurrences across South America and bioclimatic variables. In addition, we use a trait-based approach to estimate the dispersal ability of species (approximated by their wing pointedness), their dietary niche breadth (approximated by bill width) and their habitat niche breadth (the number of used habitat classes). Results: We found that (i) species’ climatic niche breadth increased with elevation, while their trait-based dispersal ability and dietary niche breadth decreased with elevation, and (ii) sensitivity to climate change and trait-based adaptive capacity were not related across species. Main conclusions: These results suggest different mechanisms of how species in lowland and highland assemblages might respond to climate change. The independent variation of species’ sensitivity to climate change and their trait-based adaptive capacity suggests that accounting for both dimensions will improve assessments of species’ susceptibility to climate change and potential impacts of climate change on diverse species assemblages