Recession and Umemployment in the OECD

Konjunkturelle Arbeitslosigkeit; Erwerbstätigkeit; Arbeitsmarktpolitik; Lebensqualität; OECD-Staaten

Regional unemployment in Scotland

One of the primary aims of the Eraser of Allander Institute is to try to form a detailed and consistent view of the structure of the Scottish economy. Disaggregation is an essential prerequisite to an appreciation of the diverse character of the Scottish economy. This article explores Scotland's first 'tier' of disaggregation under the new regional authority structure. Estimates of the numbers of employees in employment in the new regions for the period 1964 to 1973 have been made by the Department of Employment. These employment statistics provide one viewpoint from which can be formed a picture of the differing industrial structures in the regions, and the changes which have taken place in patterns of industrial activity over this period. The outstanding feature is the decline in employment in the Strathclyde region. Approximately 92,000 jobs have been lost there during this 10 year period. Nearly half of this decline has occurred in manufacturing industry. In contrast the Grampian and Highland regions have increased employment between 1964 and 1973. Their gains are concentrated in the manufacturing and service sectors. Although the employment figures for these regions support the view that the centre of economic activity in Scotland is moving north and east the figures for the other regions exhibit no clear spatial pattern. Fife gained approximately 4000 jobs between 1964 and 1973, while Tayside lost over 10,000. The Central region marginally increased its workforce, but around 17,000 jobs disappeared from the Lothians. The Borders lost over 1000 jobs but little net change was experienced in Dumfries and Galloway

US and UK Labour Markets before and during the Covid-19 Crash

We examine labour market performance in the US and the UK prior to the onset of the Covid-19 crash. We then track the changes that have occurred in the months and days from the beginning of March 2020 using what we call the Economics of Walking About (EWA) that shows a collapse twenty times faster and much deeper than the Great Recession. We examine unemployment insurance claims by state by day in the US as well as weekly national data. We track the distributional impact of the shock and show that already it is hitting the most vulnerable groups who are least able to work from home the hardest – the young, the least educated and minorities. We have no official labour market data for the UK past January but see evidence that job placements have fallen sharply. We report findings from an online poll fielded from 11–16 April 2020 showing that a third of workers in Canada and the US report that they have lost at least half of their income due to the Covid-19 crisis, compared with a quarter in the UK and 45 per cent in China. We estimate that the unemployment rate in the US is around 20 per cent in April. It is hard to know what it is in the UK given the paucity of data, but it has gone up a lot

Underemployment in the United States and Europe

The authors produce estimates for a new and better rate of underemployment for 25 countries using the European Labor Force Survey that is based on workers’ reports of their preferred hours at the going wage. Both voluntary and involuntary part-time workers report they want more hours. Full-time workers who say they want to change their hours, mostly say they want to reduce them. When the Great Recession hit, the number of hours of those who said they wanted more hours increased, and the number of hours of those who said they wanted fewer hours decreased. The percentage of workers in both categories remains elevated. The authors provide evidence for the United Kingdom and the United States as well as from an international sample that underemployment lowers pay in the years after the Great Recession, but the unemployment rate does not. They also find evidence for the United States that decreases in the home ownership rate have helped to keep wage pressure in check. Underemployment replaces unemployment as the main influence on wages in the years since the Great Recession

The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU

In this note, we argue that a considerable part of the explanation for the benign wage growth in the advanced world is the rise in underemployment. In the years after 2008 the unemployment rate understates labour market slack. Underemployment is more important than unemployment in explaining the weakness of wage growth in the UK. The Phillips curve in the UK has now to be rewritten into wage underemployment space. Underemployment now enters wage equations while the unemployment rate does not. There is every reason to believe that the NAIRU has fallen sharply since the Great Recession. In our view the NAIRU in the UK may well be nearer to 3 per cent, and even below it, than around 5 per cent, which other commentators including the MPC and the OBR believe

Underemployment in the US and Europe

Large numbers of part-time workers around the world, both those who choose to be part-time and those who are there involuntarily and would prefer a full-time job report they want more hours. Full-timers who say they want to change their hours mostly say they want to reduce them. When recession hit in most countries the number of hours of those who said they wanted more hours, rose sharply and there was a fall in the number of hours that full-timers wanted their hours reduced by. Even though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession levels in many advanced countries, underemployment in most has not. We produce estimates for a new, and better, underemployment rate for twenty-five European countries. In most underemployment remains elevated. We provide evidence for the UK and the US as well as some international evidence that underemployment rather than unemployment lowers pay in the years after the Great Recession. We also find evidence for the US that falls in the home ownership rate have helped to keep wage pressure in check. Underemployment replaces unemployment as the main influence on wages in the years since the Great Recession

Sensing gestures for business intelligence

The combination of sensor data with analytic techniques is growing in popularity for both practitioners and researchers as an Internet of Things (IoT) offers new opportunities and insights. Organisations are trying to use sensor technologies to derive intelligence and gain a competitive edge in their industries. Obtaining data from sensors might not pose too much of a problem, however subsequent utilisation in meeting an organisation’s decision making can be more problematic. Understanding how sensor data analytics can be undertaken is the first step to deriving business intelligence from front line retail environments. This paper explores the use of the Microsoft Kinect sensor to provide intelligence by identifying and sensing gestures to better understand customer behaviour in the retail space

Assessing intra- and inter-regional climate effects on Douglas-fir biomass dynamics in Oregon and Washington, USA

While ecological succession shapes contemporary forest structure and dynamics, other factors like forest structure (dense vs. sparse canopies) and climate may alter structural trajectories. To assess potential sources of variation in structural trajectories, we examined proportional biomass change for a regionally dominant tree species, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), across vegetation zones representing broad gradients in precipitation and temperature with 3510 forest inventory plots in Oregon and Washington, USA. We found that P. menziesii biomass change decreased with P. menziesii biomass stocks and increased with P. menziesii density, remaining positive in older stands only in the wet and warm vegetation zone. Within two of the vegetation zones, biomass change was greatest in warm and wet environments. In dry vegetation zones, positive P. menziesii biomass change responses to initial canopy cover and canopy cover change (i.e., increases with cover loss and decreases with cover gain) indicated shifts in forest structure. Variation in P. menziesii biomass dynamics within and between vegetation zones imply multi-scale climatic controls on forest structural trajectories for P. menziesii and highlight the potential for continued atmospheric carbon sequestration in warm and wet forests of the Pacific Northwest for both young and old forests, given that future climatic conditions support similar forest dynamics

Assessing intra- and inter-regional climate effects on Douglas-fir biomass dynamics in Oregon and Washington, USA

While ecological succession shapes contemporary forest structure and dynamics, other factors like forest structure (dense vs. sparse canopies) and climate may alter structural trajectories. To assess potential sources of variation in structural trajectories, we examined proportional biomass change for a regionally dominant tree species, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), across vegetation zones representing broad gradients in precipitation and temperature with 3510 forest inventory plots in Oregon and Washington, USA. We found that P. menziesii biomass change decreased with P. menziesii biomass stocks and increased with P. menziesii density, remaining positive in older stands only in the wet and warm vegetation zone. Within two of the vegetation zones, biomass change was greatest in warm and wet environments. In dry vegetation zones, positive P. menziesii biomass change responses to initial canopy cover and canopy cover change (i.e., increases with cover loss and decreases with cover gain) indicated shifts in forest structure. Variation in P. menziesii biomass dynamics within and between vegetation zones imply multi-scale climatic controls on forest structural trajectories for P. menziesii and highlight the potential for continued atmospheric carbon sequestration in warm and wet forests of the Pacific Northwest for both young and old forests, given that future climatic conditions support similar forest dynamics

Tidal Streams as Probes of the Galactic Potential

We explore the use of tidal streams from Galactic satellites to recover the potential of the Milky Way. Our study is motivated both by the discovery of the first lengthy stellar stream in the halo (\cite{it98}) and by the prospect of measuring proper motions of stars brighter than 20th magnitude in such a stream with an accuracy of $\sim 4\mu as/$yr, as will be possible with the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM). We assume that the heliocentric radial velocities of these stars can be determined from supporting ground-based spectroscopic surveys, and that the mass and phase-space coordinates of the Galactic satellite with which they are associated will also be known to SIM accuracy. Using results from numerical simulations as trial data sets, we find that, if we assume the correct form for the Galactic potential, we can predict the distances to the stars as a consequence of the narrow distribution of energy expected along the streams. We develop an algorithm to evaluate the accuracy of any adopted potential by requiring that the satellite and stars recombine within a Galactic lifetime when their current phase-space coordinates are integrated backwards. When applied to a four-dimensional grid of triaxial logarithmic potentials, with varying circular velocities, axis ratios and orientation of the major-axis in the disk plane, the algorithm can recover the parameters used for the Milky Way in a simulated data set to within a few percent using only 100 stars in a tidal stream.Comment: Revised version - original algorithm generalised to be applicable to any potential shape. LaTeX, 12 pages including 3 figures. To be published in ApJ Letter