Global economy knows no borders

Artykuł naukowy „Global economy knows no borders” jest podsumowaniem wystąpienia profesora Marka Belki podczas konferencji naukowej “2014 – New Opportunities for Japan – V-4 Cooperation” zorganizowanej przez Wydział Socjologiczno-Ekonomiczny Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego. Głównym tematem niniejszego opracowania są rozważania nad stanem gospodarki światowej oraz perspektywami jej rozwoju. Autor rozpoczyna swój wywód od prezentacji prognoz Banku Światowego i Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego dotyczących globalnego wzrostu, a następnie płynnie przechodzi do analizy czynników (zarówno ekonomicznych, jak i politycznych), które w ocenie wielu ekspertów mogą postawić te oczekiwania pod znakiem zapytania. Profesor Belka zwraca uwagę na brak strukturalnej równowagi w światowej ekonomii oraz występowanie zjawiska nierównomiernego rozłożenia wzrostu gospodarczego pomiędzy różnymi rejonami globu. W celu lepszego zobrazowania tego problemu podejmuje się oceny bieżącej sytuacji makroekonomicznej głównych światowych gospodarek. W części poświęconej USA odnosi się do nowych rozwiązań technologicznych w dziedzinie pozyskiwania energii, kwestii migracji siły roboczej oraz ekspansywnej polityki monetarnej stosowanej przez amerykański Bank Rezerw Federalnych. Omawia następnie skomplikowaną sytuację Chin, które odnotowały znaczący spadek dynamiki wzrostu, co nie pozostaje bez wpływu na narastające napięcia społeczne i nierówności ekonomiczne w „Państwie Środka”. W odniesieniu do Japonii autor przybliża starania rządu oraz banku centralnego do wyprowadzenia kraju z „deflacyjnej pułapki”, ograniczenia ogromnego długu publicznego oraz ponownego wprowadzenia gospodarki na ścieżkę wzrostu. Kolejną częścią pracy jest przedstawienie wyzwań stojących przed Europejskim Bankiem Centralnym, którego celem jest utrzymanie unii walutowej oraz pobudzenie wzrostu w deflacyjnym otoczeniu gospodarczym przy nadal nierozwiązanym problemie zadłużenia części członków Unii. W tym kontekście zostaje zaprezentowana polityka „luzowania ilościowego” (QE – Quantitative Easing), a także rozważania nad planem inwestycji infrastrukturalnych, które mogłyby dodatkowo pobudzić wzrost gospodarczy Unii Europejskiej. Autor zwraca jednak uwagę na brak myślenia wspólnotowego zarówno w kwestii planowania inwestycji, jak i dzielenia się odpowiedzialnością za zadłużenie. To z kolei prowadzi go do rozważań nad przyszłością integracji europejskiej i jej zasięgu, a także wskazania trudności w stosowaniu polityki reform strukturalnych. Ostatnia część pracy jest poświęcona rozważaniom nad wstąpieniem Polski do strefy euro. Problem ten jest omówiony z różnych perspektyw: roli, jaką Polska chce odgrywać w ramach Unii Europejskiej, naszej gotowości do spełnienia kryteriów ekonomicznych, polskiej polityki wewnętrznej oraz nierozwiązanych problemów, które trapią samą Eurostrefę. Praca została również rozszerzona o zapis sesji pytań i odpowiedzi, podczas której autor ustosunkował się do zagadnień wpływu potencjalnego przyjęcia przez Polskę waluty euro na wymianę handlową z Japonią oraz konsekwencji dla polskiej gospodarki w związku z pojawieniem się zjawiska deflacji.The organizers of the conference wish to acknowledge the National Bank of Poland’s generous funding of this publication

Microeconomics of transformation in Poland : a survey of state enterprise responses

State enterprise behavior and reform have emerged as key issues in the emerging market economies of Eastern Europe because of the size of the state manufacturing sector as measured by its share in GDP, exports, and tax revenues. The difficulties experienced by Polish state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in adjusting and responding to the new economic environment have led to fiscal imbalance, deteriorating portfolios of commercial banks, and burgeoning interfirm payment arrears. The authors examine the economic and behavioral reactions of a significant sample of Poland's largest SOEs to the macroeconomic reforms introduced as part of the"big bang"in January 1990. They track the evolution of output, costs, and profits, and examine wage setting behavior, enterprise debt dynamics, and enforcement of the"micro"hard budget constraint by banks. They conduct a firm-level analysis of the export boom and its causes and document the evolving tax burden on enterprises. Their findings are based on a survey of 75 large SOEs in manufacturing during June 1989 - March 1991 - six months prior to and 15 months following the big bang. Some of the main quantitative conclusions were: (1) The high nominal interest rate on working capital (from 50 to 72 percent of the month of January 1990 alone) inhibited borrowing and motivated firms to pay off zloty loans, leading to a squeeze on working capital. The huge decline in real wages led to a demand shock, witnessed by rising finished goods inventories. Consequently, the initial, unexpectedly large, decline in output could be explained by a combination of nominal interest rate shock and standard demand considerations. (2) High profits in 1990 were temporary, stemming from inflationary gains on once-off inventory sales, devaluation gains on enterprise dollar accounts, and implicit input subsidies from CMEA trade. (3) Banks were lax in enforcing creditworthiness, leading to an adverse selection problem marked by loans going mainly to"bad"firms. (4) State-owned enterprises tend to be myopic, with considerable short-run pressure on wages that works to the detriment of restructuring investments essential for reducing energy and material intensity and product redesign. (5) Nominal and real wages both displayed remarkable flexibility. Employment reduction has lagged output reduction partly because partial indexation of wages to inflation has kept real wages low and partly because of the natural reluctance of worker-controlled SOEs to shed labor. So, there is clear possibility of much higher transitional unemployment once privatization and commercialization get underway on large scale. (6) The hard-currency export boom in 1990 was motivated more by slack domestic demand than higher export profitability. The main qualitative change is a definite attitudinal shift in favor of profits and marketing in contrast to the old exclusive emphasis on production targets. But there is a serious principal-agent problem with managers serving at the pleasure of the workers'council and no obvious owner stressing long-term viability considerations in decision-making. The paper concludes by discussing the microeconomic transformation needed to complete the largely economic big bang. The importance of addressing firm-level managerial incentives and empowering managers is emphasized in the transition to eventual privatization.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation

Transforming state enterprises in Poland : macroeconomic evidence on adjustment

Basing their report on repeat visits in late 1992 to 75 large state-owned manufacturing enterprises (which had been earlier surveyed in mid-1991), the authors present optimistic new evidence about the transformation of state-owned enterprises in Poland. This evidence shows state-owned enterprises in a much more favorable light than the stereotype of myopic, decapitalizing companies that dominates discussion of Poland's state manufacturing sector. Success stories are emerging, and the state sector is far from a write-off. Moreover, favorable evidence is drawn from all manufacturing sectors, attesting to thepotential for a diversified manufacturing base. The state-owned enterprises'operations are largely autonomous, so the positive adjustments indicate that decentralized approaches to transformation could work - if bolstered by appropriate managerial incentives. But several problems remain, and many issues have yet to be addressed. The authors examine various adjustment indicators (labor shedding, material and energy costs, bank borrowings, and export performance) and correlate these with firms classified by 1992 financial performance. (By 1992, presumably, the transitional measurement distortions of 1990 and 1991 had disappeared.) They show that significant differences exist between successful and unsuccessful firms. Managers in successful firms have tended to stress a change in product mix, have generally become more efficient in the use of materials and energy, have maintained labor productivity, and have shown restraint in setting wages and in borrowing from banks. The authors discuss key transformation issues: the disappearance of such safety valves as easy bank loans and interfirm credit, hardening of the microeconomic budget constraint, excess-wage tax reform, and, most important, managerial attitudes and incentives. To complete the picture, they correlate the results of manager interviews with the quantitative performance of firms. Essentially, firms have learned a good deal about operating in a market economy in the past three years, and managers have matured. The industrial revival showing up in economywide statistics can be regarded as a sustainable trend borne of genuine microeconomic adjustment.Small Scale Enterprise,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Municipal Financial Management

Transforming State Enterprises in Poland: Evidence on Adjustment by Manufacturing Firms

macroeconomics, state enterprises, Poland, manufacturing firms

COVID-19 may strengthen Central-Eastern Europe – will it embrace the EU or nationalism?

The COVID-19 pandemic may actually strengthen Central and Eastern Europe in relative economic terms, and Poland in particular, argue Marek Belka and Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi (LSE). Politicians in the region should not waste this opportunity by turning away from the EU

Coming of age: report on the euro area

This report surveys the economic performance of the euro area and gives recommendations about six policy challenges of major importance for the future of EMU.

Synthesis of Novel Pyrido[1,2-c]pyrimidine Derivatives with 6-Fluoro-3-(4-piperidynyl)-1,2-benzisoxazole Moiety as Potential SSRI and 5-HT1A Receptor Ligands

Two series of novel 4-aryl-2H-pyrido[1,2-c]pyrimidine (6a–i) and 4-aryl-5,6,7,8-tetrahydropyrido[1,2-c]pyrimidine (7a–i) derivatives were synthesized. The chemical structures of the new compounds were confirmed by 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy and ESI-HRMS spectrometry. The affinities of all compounds for the 5-HT1A receptor and serotonin transporter protein (SERT) were determined by in vitro radioligand binding assays. The test compounds demonstrated very high binding affinities for the 5-HT1A receptor of all derivatives in the series (6a–i and 7a–i) and generally low binding affinities for the SERT protein, with the exception of compounds 6a and 7g. Extended affinity tests for the receptors D2, 5-HT2A, 5-HT6 and 5-HT7 were conducted with regard to selected compounds (6a, 7g, 6d and 7i). All four compounds demonstrated very high affinities for the D2 and 5-HT2A receptors. Compounds 6a and 7g also had high affinities for 5-HT7, while 6d and 7i held moderate affinities for this receptor. Compounds 6a and 7g were also tested in vivo to identify their functional activity profiles with regard to the 5-HT1A receptor, with 6a demonstrating the activity profile of a presynaptic agonist. Metabolic stability tests were also conducted for 6a and 6d