Group-Based Social Network Characterisation of Hidden Terrorist Networks

Hidden networks arise in high-dimensional network structures when the hidden network members camouflage their existence by appearing randomly connected to the larger network structure, but in reality ensure they remain in persistent contact with one another over time. This paper takes a first step towards determining how to locate such hidden networks through the novel use of group-based social network metrics to characterise the features of hidden networks. Micro, meso and macro-level network analyses of the September 11 network and a selection of popular simulated terrorist network structures will show that the simulated networks are highly visible whereas the hidden networks display low visibility except at the macro level. Moreover these hidden networks aid to camouflage a highly prominent terrorist network of trusted prior contacts

On the detection of hidden terrorist cells immersed in peer to peer networks

Hidden terrorist cells in high dimensional communications networks arise when terrorists camouflage connectivity to appear randomly connected to the background network. We investigate hidden network detectability when the background network does not support terrorist activities. Using two September 11 terrorist networks as the test bed and a network measure called assortativity, we suggest hidden terrorist networks can behave as Peer-to-Peer networks. We compare the September 11 hidden networks with Peer-to-Peer networks containing embedded terrorist networks, as well as with generic Peer-to-Peer networks. Using Peer-to-Peer characteristics and social network group-based centralities, we show that for certain Peer-to-Peer networks it is possible to detect hidden terrorist networks in cyberspace, with potential future application to Instant Messaging and Skype networks

What is a unit of capacity worth?

Consider a finite-capacity telecommunications link to which connection requests arrive in a Poisson process. Each connection carried on the link earns a certain amount of revenue for the link's manager. Now, assume that the manager is offered the opportunity to buy or sell a unit of the link's allocated capacity. Assuming that the manager has a knowledge of the current number of connections on the link, we demonstrate a method of calculating the buying and selling prices.B.A. Chiera and P.G. Taylo

Do we really know what students know?

Students come in with either apprehension or a negative attitude towards statistics. Those who completed Year 12 tell us they already ‘know’ statistics. Many display varied degrees of maths anxiety. Irrespective of background, the majority struggle when faced with conducting analyses and interpreting results. What do the students really know and understand about statistics

Low Birth Weights and Risk of Neonatal Mortality in Indonesia

Background: Neonatal mortality rates in Indonesia remain steady in the past decades (20 in 2002 to 19 per 1000 live births in 2012). In order to accelerate the decline in neonatal mortality rate in Indonesia, specific interventions would have to target key factors causing mortality. This study aims to examine contribution of low birth weight on neonatal mortality in Indonesia. Methods: Data from the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) conducted in 2012 were used in the analysis. A total of 18021 live births in the last five years preceding the survey were reported from the mothers. Completed information of their children (14837 children) were taken for this analysis. The adjusted relative risk with cox proportional hazard regression analysis were used to assess the strength of association to neonatal mortality. Results: Children born in low birth weight were 9.89-fold higher risk of neonatal mortality compared to children born in normal weight [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 9.89; 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.41 – 13.19); P = < 0.0001]. Children delivered from younger mothers (aged 15 - 19 years) had 94% higher risk of neonatal mortality compared to children delivered from mothers aged 20-35 years. Working mothers had 81% higher risk of neonatal mortality compared to unemployed mothers. Conclusion: Children born in a low birth weight and born from younger mothers had higher risk of neonatal mortality. Appropriate care and treatment for children born in low birth weight is needed to prolonged survival rates of the children. (Health Science Journal of Indonesia 2016;7(2):113-117

An adaptive LQG TCP congestion controller for the Internet, Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology, 2006, nr 1

This paper addresses the problem of congestion control for transmission control protocol (TCP) traffic in the Internet. The method proposed builds on the ideas of TCP Vegas, a true feedback control approach to congestion management of TCP traffic. The new method is based on an adaptive linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) formulation which uses an extended least squares system identification algorithm com- bined with optimal LQG control. Simulation experiments indicate that the new technique inherits good equilibrium properties from TCP Vegas, but has much superior transient responses which, the paper argues, is important for good dynamic congestion control

Air quality forecasting in Europe using statistical persistence

In this paper we augment the methodology of Chiera et al., [2010] to produce a multi-indicator model to predict pollution levels at measuring stations located in 36 European nations, based on observed persistent behaviour in air quality. An attractive feature of the adapted usage of the CFZG model is that it can be applied to multiple pollutant signals including all of the primary European pollutants such as Nitrous Oxides, Particulate Matter, Volatile Organic Compounds and Ozone. Unlike the single-indicator CFZG model, which used measuring stations from two locations only, we use measuring stations for pollutant signals which are geographically disparate, located in both rural and urban sites across 36 countries, all of which are registered with the European Environmental Agency. We present examples of typical nitrous oxide and ozone levels across selected sites and forecasting results for our chosen case study — rural Bosnia-Herzegovina — and compare the forecast against a control test that uses a random signal.

Modelling motor vehicle emissions and population exposure in South Australia

The case study results indicate use of the enhanced Link Emissions Model provides a strong understanding of approximate pollution concentrations in the Adelaide air shed, forming a solid platform upon which to base future informed strategies for emission reduction and exposure mitigation.