Measuring the Persistence on Consumption in Portugal

The paper deals with the detection and measurement of the level of persistence on aggregate private consumption in Portugal, USA, European Union and EuroZone as well as on some categories of aggregate consumption in Portugal. By the use of a non-parametric methodology applied to monthly data (1992-2007) it is concluded that aggregate consumption in Europe (both European Union and Euro Zone) is more persistent than in the USA and in Portugal. In particular, the relatively lower degree of persistence shown by the consumption in Portugal can be beneficial for the effectiveness of the countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies that are currently being implemented to overcome the current economic crisis. Our results also suggest that consumption of durables is less persistent, also being more volatile. This result is important in the explanation of the severity of the current economic crisis in Portugal.Consumption, Persistence, Portugal

Is the Euro-Area Core Price Index Really More Persistent than the Food and Energy Price Indexes?

The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of persistence of the overall, core, food and energy Harmonized Indexes of Consumer Prices for the European Monetary Zone (HICP-EAs) and to identify its implications for decision-making in the private sector and in public policy. Using a non-parametric approach, our results demonstrate the presence of a statistically significant level of persistence in four HICP-EAs: headline, core, food and energy. Moreover, contrary to popular belief, the core index does not reflect permanent price changes. We also find evidence that the food and energy price indexes are more volatile and more persistent than the other two price indexes. Our results also show a reduction in persistence for both the headline and the core price indexes after the implementation of the single monetary policy, but not for food and energy. These results have important implications for both the private sector and for policymakers who use the core as a reference price index for their decision-making because the use of this index can lead to an erroneous perception of price movements

Procura final de energia em Portugal: Existe evidência sobre a presença de memória longa?

A persistente escalada do preço dos combustíveis fósseis à qual está associada uma enorme volatilidade de curto prazo, assim como as crescentes preocupações com as emissões de gases com efeitos sobre as alterações climáticas, alimentou nos últimos anos a discussão e as preocupações de política, do seu desenho e eficácia, sobre as possibilidades de substituição das fontes energéticas. O presente artigo pretende dar um contributo para essa discussão ao avaliar a hipótese da presença de memória longa na procura energética desagregada em Portugal. Usando dados mensais da Direção Geral de Energia e Minas (DGEM) e do Eurostat entre 1985 e 2011, os nossos resultados sugerem que não é possível rejeitar a hipótese da presença de memória longa na procura de energia agregada e desagregada (petróleo e derivados, eletricidade, carvão e gaz), com reversão para a média de forma muito lenta. resultados têm importantes implicações de política, pois sugerem que os choques de política têm efeitos permanentes na procura energética em Portugal

Final energy demand in Portugal: How persistent it is and why it matters for environmental policy

The objective of this paper is to analyze the degree of persistence of final energy demand in Portugal. Our results suggest the presence of a strong level of persistence for aggregate final energy demand. Final demand for gas is the most persistent component of energy demand, while the final demand for coal is the least persistent. In turn, final demand for petroleum and biomass tend to have levels of persistence similar to aggregate final demand. The case of final demand for electricity is inconclusive. These results have the important implication for the design of environmental policies. First, the fact that final energy demand is highly persistent is good news in that environmental policies in Portugal can be implemented in a favorable setting in which their effects will tend to be long lasting. Second, the high persistence of gas and the fact that biomass and petroleum have levels of persistence that are similar suggests that fuel switching policies will be relatively easy to implement in these cases. The case of coal is somewhat different in that switching away from coal may not be easy. In turn, the case of electricity is somewhat ambiguous. While the fact that it is also highly persistent suggests that shocks to its final demand will produce long lasting effects, it is not clear, however, how they compare to the effects on the other final demand components and therefore we can make no statements about fuel switching

Cross Country Evidence on Consumption Persistence

The main focus of this article is the detection and measurement of the level of persistence in aggregate and disaggregate private consumption in Italy, Norway and the United Kingdom. Using a non-parametric methodology, we conclude that the presence of a significant degree of persistence in aggregate and disaggregate consumption in those three countries cannot be rejected. These results are essential from a policy point of view. Persistence in consumption does exist and cannot be ignored, whether the goal is to stabilize the level of output via consumption or to boost output via long-lasting increases in consumption. One instrument that might be useful in addressing this issue is interest rates

Estabilidade Local em Problemas de Controle Óptimo com duas variáveis de Estado: Uma Extensão do Teorema de Dockner

O presente trabalho procura demonstrar que as condições exigidas por Dockner no teorema 3, mesmo para o caso da sociedade evidenciar impaciência face ao futuro (caso em que r > 0) podem fazer surgir não só os 4 valores próprios apenas com parte real a que o teorema se refere, como também dois pares de complexos conjugados sendo que dois deles têm parte real positiva e dois parte real negativa. Com isso, as trajectórias em direcção ao estado estacionário, quando vistas a partir do Stable Manifold, podem evoluir em forma de espiral convergente (Foco Estável)

The Relationship between Consumption and CO2 Emissions: Evidence for Portugal

This paper establishes an empirical relationship between CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and household consumption of nondurable goods and services. Using a typical life cycle-permanent income hypothesis framework, we reject the hypothesis that inclusion of CO2 emissions in the consumption function is not supported by the data. Furthermore, our results suggest the existence of a distaste effect or negative state dependence effect. This result has important policy implications as it suggests that decarbonizing the economy would ultimately stimulate household consumption. Our results also have implications for both the cyclical behavior and the smoothing process of consumption, which depend on the branch of the environmental Kuznets curve that the country is on as well as on the prevalence of intertemporal dependent preference

On Sustainable Endogenous Growth under Intertemporally Depedendent Preferences

In this paper we study an endogenous growth model with habit-formation and address two questions that are, to the best of our knowledge, new for the sustainable endogenous growth literature: first, does the process of habit-formation in relation to the consumption of manufactured goods influence the stock of environmental capital? Second, does habit-formation affect the long-term rate of economic growth? Using a simple structure of an endogenous growth models, we first show that there may be multiple equilibrium, not all stable. Second, we prove that the presence of habits in relation to the manufactured goods lowers the steady state level of environmental capital. However the effect on the endogenous growth rate depends on the intertemporal elasticity of consumption substitution. In particular, an increase in the strength of habits will result in a higher endogenous output growth rate if the substitution between intertemporal consumption is elastic. On the other hand, a change in preferences towards a cleaner environment increases the steady state level of natural capital. But the presence of habits reduces the effectiveness of any public policy that is meant to increase the social value of environment in utility

Measuring Persistence on Consumption in Portugal

The paper deals with the detection and measurement of the level of persistence on aggregate private consumption in Portugal, USA, European Union and EuroZone as well as on some categories of aggregate consumption in Portugal. By the use of a non-parametric methodology applied to monthly data (1992-2007) it is concluded that aggregate consumption in Europe (both European Union and Euro Zone) is more persistent than in the USA and in Portugal. In particular, the relatively lower degree of persistence shown by the consumption in Portugal can be beneficial for the effectiveness of the countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies that are currently being implemented to overcome the current economic crisis. Our results also suggest that consumption of durables is less persistent, also being more volatile. This result is important in the explanation of the severity of the current economic crisis in Portugal