Estimating correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of heterogeneity

Abstract Background Estimating correlation coefficients among outcomes is one of the most important analytical tasks in epidemiological and clinical research. Availability of multivariate longitudinal data presents a unique opportunity to assess joint evolution of outcomes over time. Bivariate linear mixed model (BLMM) provides a versatile tool with regard to assessing correlation. However, BLMMs often assume that all individuals are drawn from a single homogenous population where the individual trajectories are distributed smoothly around population average. Methods Using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and visual acuity (VA) from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), we demonstrated strategies to better understand the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of potential heterogeneity. Conditional correlation (i.e., marginal correlation given random effects) was calculated to describe how the association between longitudinal outcomes evolved over time within specific subpopulation. The impact of heterogeneity on correlation was also assessed by simulated data. Results There was a significant positive correlation in both random intercepts (ρ = 0.278, 95% CI: 0.121–0.420) and random slopes (ρ = 0.579, 95% CI: 0.349–0.810) between longitudinal MD and VA, and the strength of correlation constantly increased over time. However, conditional correlation and simulation studies revealed that the correlation was induced primarily by participants with rapid deteriorating MD who only accounted for a small fraction of total samples. Conclusion Conditional correlation given random effects provides a robust estimate to describe the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (NCT00000125)

Predicting clinical binary outcome using multivariate longitudinal data: Application to patients with newly diagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma

Primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is a chronic, progressive, irreversible, and potentially blinding optic neuropathy. The risk of blindness due to progressive visual field (VF) loss varies substantially from patient to patient. Early identification of those patients destined to rapid progressive visual loss is crucial to prevent further damage. In this article, a latent class growth model (LCGM) was developed to predict the binary outcome of VF progression using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and pattern standard deviation (PSD). Specifically, the trajectories of MD and PSD were summarized by a functional principal component (FPC) analysis, and the estimated FPC scores were used to identify subgroups (latent classes) of individuals with distinct patterns of MD and PSD trajectories. Probability of VF progression for an individual was then estimated as weighted average across latent classes, weighted by posterior probability of class membership given baseline covariates and longitudinal MD/PSD series. The model was applied to the participants with newly diagnosed POAG from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), and the OHTS data was best fit by a model with 4 latent classes. Using the resultant optimal LCGM, the OHTS participants with and without VF progression could be accurately differentiated by incorporating longitudinal MD and PSD

Clonal Hematopoiesis is Associated With Protection From Alzheimer\u27s Disease

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is a premalignant expansion of mutated hematopoietic stem cells. As CHIP-associated mutations are known to alter the development and function of myeloid cells, we hypothesized that CHIP may also be associated with the risk of Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD), a disease in which brain-resident myeloid cells are thought to have a major role. To perform association tests between CHIP and AD dementia, we analyzed blood DNA sequencing data from 1,362 individuals with AD and 4,368 individuals without AD. Individuals with CHIP had a lower risk of AD dementia (meta-analysis odds ratio (OR) = 0.64, P = 3.8 × 1

Analysis of shared heritability in common disorders of the brain

Paroxysmal Cerebral Disorder

Estimating correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of heterogeneity

Abstract Background Estimating correlation coefficients among outcomes is one of the most important analytical tasks in epidemiological and clinical research. Availability of multivariate longitudinal data presents a unique opportunity to assess joint evolution of outcomes over time. Bivariate linear mixed model (BLMM) provides a versatile tool with regard to assessing correlation. However, BLMMs often assume that all individuals are drawn from a single homogenous population where the individual trajectories are distributed smoothly around population average. Methods Using longitudinal mean deviation (MD) and visual acuity (VA) from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), we demonstrated strategies to better understand the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of potential heterogeneity. Conditional correlation (i.e., marginal correlation given random effects) was calculated to describe how the association between longitudinal outcomes evolved over time within specific subpopulation. The impact of heterogeneity on correlation was also assessed by simulated data. Results There was a significant positive correlation in both random intercepts (ρ = 0.278, 95% CI: 0.121–0.420) and random slopes (ρ = 0.579, 95% CI: 0.349–0.810) between longitudinal MD and VA, and the strength of correlation constantly increased over time. However, conditional correlation and simulation studies revealed that the correlation was induced primarily by participants with rapid deteriorating MD who only accounted for a small fraction of total samples. Conclusion Conditional correlation given random effects provides a robust estimate to describe the correlation between multivariate longitudinal data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (NCT00000125)

Detection and prognostic significance of optic disc hemorrhages during the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study

To compare the rates of detection of optic disc hemorrhages by clinical examination and by review of optic disc photographs at the Optic Disc Reading Center (ODRC), to assess the incidence of and the predictive factors for disc hemorrhages in the annual disc photographs of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), and to determine whether optic disc hemorrhages predict the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in the OHTS. Cohort study. Three thousand two hundred thirty-six eyes of 1618 participants. Both eyes of participants were examined for optic disc hemorrhages every 6 months by clinical examination, with dilated fundus examinations every 12 months, and by annual review of stereoscopic disc photographs at the ODRC. Incidence of optic disc hemorrhages and POAG end points. Median follow-up was 96.3 months. Stereophotography-confirmed glaucomatous optic disc hemorrhages were detected in 128 eyes of 123 participants before the POAG end point. Twenty-one cases (16%) were detected by both clinical examination and review of photographs, and 107 cases (84%) were detected only by review of photographs (P<0.0001). Baseline factors associated with disc hemorrhages were older age, thinner corneas, larger vertical cup-to-disc ratio, larger pattern standard deviation index on perimetry, family history of glaucoma, and smoking status. The occurrence of a disc hemorrhage increased the risk of developing POAG 6-fold in a univariate analysis (P<0.001; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-10.1) and 3.7-fold in a multivariate analysis that included baseline factors predictive of POAG (P<0.001; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-6.6). The 96-month cumulative incidence of POAG in the eyes without optic disc hemorrhage was 5.2%, compared with 13.6% in the eyes with optic disc hemorrhage. In eyes with a disc hemorrhage in which a POAG end point developed, the median time between the 2 events was 13 months. Review of stereophotographs was more sensitive at detecting optic disc hemorrhage than clinical examination. The occurrence of an optic disc hemorrhage was associated with an increased risk of developing a POAG end point in participants in the OHTS. However, most eyes (86.7%) in which a disc hemorrhage developed have not experienced a POAG end point to date

The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study: baseline factors that predict the onset of primary open-angle glaucoma

The Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) has shown that topical ocular hypotensive medication is effective in delaying or preventing the onset of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in individuals with elevated intraocular pressure (ocular hypertension) and no evidence of glaucomatous damage. To describe baseline demographic and clinical factors that predict which participants in the OHTS developed POAG. Baseline demographic and clinical data were collected prior to randomization except for corneal thickness measurements, which were performed during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify factors that predicted which participants in the OHTS developed POAG. In univariate analyses, baseline factors that predicted the development of POAG included older age, race (African American), sex (male), larger vertical cup-disc ratio, larger horizontal cup-disc ratio, higher intraocular pressure, greater Humphrey visual field pattern standard deviation, heart disease, and thinner central corneal measurement. In multivariate analyses, baseline factors that predicted the development of POAG included older age, larger vertical or horizontal cup-disc ratio, higher intraocular pressure, greater pattern standard deviation, and thinner central corneal measurement. Baseline age, vertical and horizontal cup-disc ratio, pattern standard deviation, and intraocular pressure were good predictors for the onset of POAG in the OHTS. Central corneal thickness was found to be a powerful predictor for the development of POAG