Don't Raise the Retirement Age! An Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms and East-West Differences in Germany

For policy reforms to increase a society's welfare, reliable information on people's prefer-ences and expectations is crucial. Representative opinion polls, often involving simplified questions about the complex topics under debate, are an important source of information for both policy-makers and the public. Do people's answers to these poll questions reliably reflect their preferences and expectations, or does fundamental, undiscriminating opposition to reforms distort them? We address this question in the context of a recent German pension reform which raised the statutory retirement age by two years to age 67. By introducing an experiment into a representative household survey, we are able to disentangle expectations of work ability at retirement and fundamental opposition. Our results show that expected work ability declines substantially with increasing target age (63, 65, or 67 years). Answers from West German respondents reflect their current life situation as well as individual health and other risk factors. However, a fundamental opposition to reforms of the welfare state appears to strongly affect responses from East German households.retirement, health, work ability, survey experiment, public opinion poll, PAYG pension system, East Germany

Rente mit 67: Wie lange die Deutschen arbeiten können und wollen

Unter den Reformplänen der großen Koalition wurde und wird die Verlängerung der Lebensarbeitszeit besonders kontrovers diskutiert. Beatrice Scheubel, Center for Economic Studies (CES), und Joachim Winter, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, untersuchen das häufig vorgebrachten Argument, die Menschen seien im Alter gesundheitlich nicht mehr fit genug, um bis 67 arbeiten zu können. Sie analysieren repräsentative Befragungsdaten aus der Mannheimer SAVE-Studie über die Erwartungen der noch arbeitenden Bevölkerung hinsichtlich der individuellen Arbeitsfähigkeit im Alter. Es zeigt sich, dass das Bild, das in der öffentlichen Diskussion gezeichnet wird, zu düster ist. Die verbreitete Ablehnung einer Erhöhung des Rentenalters geht nicht unbedingt mit einer niedrigen individuellen Arbeitsfähigkeit im Alter einher.Altersgrenze, Rentenreform, Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung, Deutschland

Bismarck's Institutions

The decline in birth rates in advanced economies is not a new phenomenon. Between 1880 and 1900 birth rates dropped from 5.5 children per woman to 2.5 children per woman. A further decline from 2.5 to 1.5 or even 1.3 children took much longer – about 80 years. One of the most apparent causes is, however, widely ignored. Beatrice Scheubel tries to fill this gap. According to the so-called Social Security Hypothesis, insurance against the risks of life (i.e. poverty for all sorts of reasons, in particular, age) by the state crowds out all types of private insurance. One of the (vast) different possibilities to privately insure oneself against poverty is having children. That is why it should not be surprising to witness falling birth rates given the sheer magnitude of the welfare state. In this book, Beatrice Scheubel analyses the effects of the first comprehensive system of social security, which was introduced between 1883 and 1891 in Germany

Bismarck's Institutions

The decline in birth rates in advanced economies is not a new phenomenon. Between 1880 and 1900 birth rates dropped from 5.5 children per woman to 2.5 children per woman. A further decline from 2.5 to 1.5 or even 1.3 children took much longer – about 80 years. One of the most apparent causes is, however, widely ignored. Beatrice Scheubel tries to fill this gap. According to the so-called Social Security Hypothesis, insurance against the risks of life (i.e. poverty for all sorts of reasons, in particular, age) by the state crowds out all types of private insurance. One of the (vast) different possibilities to privately insure oneself against poverty is having children. That is why it should not be surprising to witness falling birth rates given the sheer magnitude of the welfare state. In this book, Beatrice Scheubel analyses the effects of the first comprehensive system of social security, which was introduced between 1883 and 1891 in Germany

Don't raise the retirement age! An experiment on opposition to pension reforms and East-West differences in Germany

For policy reforms to increase a society's welfare, reliable information on people's preferences and expectations is crucial. Representative opinion polls, often involving simplified questions about the complex topics under debate, are an important source of information for both policy-makers and the public. Do people's answers to these poll questions reliably reflect their preferences and expectations, or does fundamental, undiscriminating opposition to reforms distort them? We address this question in the context of a recent German pension reform which raised the statutory retirement age by two years to age 67. By introducing an experiment into a representative household survey, we are able to disentangle expectations of work ability at retirement and fundamental opposition. Our results show that expected work ability declines substantially with increasing target age (63, 65, or 67 years). Answers from West German respondents re°ect their current life situation as well as individual health nd other risk factors. However, a fundamental opposition to reforms of the welfare state appears to strongly affect responses from East German households