Foreign policy in the fourth dimension (FP4D) : locating time in decision-making

Whilst International Relations scholarship has taken a ‘temporal turn’, foreign policy decision-making (FPDM) research reveals little explicit theoretical attention to time. Time is an important aspect of several prominent frameworks, yet these either fail to make explicit their conception of time or fail to reflect upon the implications of their temporal assumptions and understandings. We address this lacuna by developing a timing perspective on foreign policy decision-making. We present the central features of this perspective, including the nature of timing agency, temporal motivations, the timing of decision-making processes, and timing as a foreign policy tool. Illustrated with empirical examples, we show how timing plays out in foreign policy decision-making and helps to shed new light on our understanding of crises and ways decision-makers may grapple with them. We conclude by considering the theoretical and empirical benefits and challenges of bridging FPDM with theoretical approaches to time.PostprintPeer reviewe

What if? Counterfactual Trump and the western response to the war in Ukraine

Because of his personality, had Donald Trump won the 2020 election the remarkable and unexpected united response by NATO allies to the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine would not have happened. Relying on leader personality research in foreign policy, we demonstrate this by using the counterfactual method of analysis. Specifying key differences between Biden's and Trump's personalities in terms of their experiences, traits and beliefs, we explicitly show that president Trump would have been very unlikely to share US intelligence, rally NATO allies in support of Ukraine or challenge Vladimir Putin. In contrast, these responses fit very well with Joe Biden's personality. We first present counterfactual analysis as a method before comparing Biden and Trump along personality characteristics known to significantly influence foreign-policy decisions. Through our case-study, we demonstrate the value of using systematic and theoretically grounded counterfactual methods for assessing the importance of individual differences between leaders and emphasizing their impact on international affairs.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Role theory, foreign policy, and the social construction of sovereignty:Brexit stage right

The publication of this article was funded by Chemnitz University of Technology; Kai Oppermann is this article's corresponding author.The international roles states play in world politics are bound up with the ways in which sovereignty is constructed within the international system. While scholarship on sovereignty has recognized its social construction, and role research emphasizes social interactions as shaping roles and role behaviors, little work has explored the relationship between sovereignty and roles. Linking roles and sovereignty offers a distinct perspective on the social construction of sovereignty, providing a broad conception of socialization, emphasizing agency, and bridging domestic politics and international relations. We develop the concept of a “sovereignty–role nexus” through an examination of Brexit, revealing, through processes of role contestation and role socialization, multiple and competing constructions of the nature and value of sovereignty. While Brexit is unique, we suggest that these dynamics will affect other cases where states face role changes linked to sovereignty concerns.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Explaining extremity in the foreign policies of parliamentary democracies

This investigation was financially supported by the University of Kansas General Research Fund.Why do multiparty cabinets in parliamentary democracies produce more extreme foreign policies than single-party cabinets? Our paper argues that particular institutional and psychological dynamics explain this difference. We test this argument using a global events data set incorporating foreign policy behaviors of numerous multiparty and single-party governments. We find that more parties and weak parliaments promote extremity in coalitions, but parliamentary strength has the opposite effect for single-party governments. This study challenges existing expectations about the impact of democratic institutions on foreign policy.PostprintPeer reviewe

Spatial variation in direct and indirect contact rates at the wildlife-livestock interface for informing disease management

Little is known about disease transmission relevant contact rates at the wildlife-livestock interface and the factors shaping them. Indirect contact via shared resources is thought to be important but remains unquantified in most systems, making it challenging to evaluate the impact of livestock management practices on contact networks. Free-ranging wild pigs (Sus scrofa) in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species with an expanding distribution that pose a threat to livestock health given their potential to transmit numerous livestock diseases, such as pseudorabies, brucellosis, trichinellosis, and echinococcosis, among many others. Our objective in this study was to quantify the spatial variations in direct and indirect contact rates among wild pigs and cattle on a commercial cow-calf operation in Florida, USA. Using GPS data from 20 wild pigs and 11 cattle and a continuous-time movement model, we extracted three types of spatial contacts between wild pigs and cattle, including direct contact, indirect contact in the pastoral environment (unknown naturally occurring resources), and indirect contact via anthropogenic cattle resources (feed supplements and water supply troughs). We examined the effects of sex, spatial proximity, and cattle supplement availability on contact rates at the species level and characterized wild pig usage of cattle supplements. Our results suggested daily pig-cattle direct contacts occurred only occasionally, while a significant number of pig-cattle indirect contacts occurred via natural resources distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. At cattle supplements, more indirect contacts occurred at liquid molasses than water troughs or molasses-mineral block tubs due to higher visitation rates by wild pigs. Our results can be directly used for parameterizing epidemiological models to inform risk assessment and optimal control strategies for controlling transmission of shared diseases

A Rapid Population Assessment Method for Wild Pigs Using Baited Cameras at 3 Study Site

Reliable and efficient population estimates are a critical need for effective management of invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofa). We evaluated the use of 10‐day camera grids for rapid population assessment (RPA) of wild pigs at 3 study sites that varied in vegetation communities and wild pig densities. Study areas included Buck Island Ranch, Florida; Tejon Ranch, California; and the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA, during 2016–2018. Rapid population assessments grids were composed of baited camera traps spaced approximately 500 or 750 m apart. Two RPA grids were deployed per study site and each grid was deployed twice (4–6 months apart) to assess changes in response to season or population control efforts. We assessed the ability of RPA grids to track population trends, how camera number influenced estimate precision, and how relative abundance indices related to density estimates. We detected changes in occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates following removal operations and between seasons, but the ability of RPA grids to track population trends was dependent on the statistical method used and number of cameras traps. Increasing the number of cameras traps used in RPA grids increased precision, and these results can be used in determining survey design and estimate choice. We found that estimates of occupancy probability, detection probability, and N‐mixture estimates were positively correlated with spatially explicit capture-recapture density estimates. Thus, these less labor‐intensive estimates from RPA grids showed potential to index the relative abundance of wild pigs in some systems. Our evaluation of RPAs indicates that using study‐specific combinations of statistical method and number of cameras can provide a useful tool for monitoring wild pig presence, tracking population trends, and evaluating the effectiveness of management actions

Predicting functional responses in agro-ecosystems from animal movement data to improve management of invasive pests

Functional responses describe how changing resource availability affects con- sumer resource use, thus providing a mechanistic approach to prediction of the invasibility and potential damage of invasive alien species (IAS). However, functional responses can be context dependent, varying with resource characteristics and availability, consumer attributes, and environmental variables. Identifying context dependencies can allow invasion and damage risk to be predicted across different ecoregions. Understanding how ecological factors shape the functional response in agro-ecosystems can improve predictions of hotspots of highest impact and inform strategies to mitigate damage across locations with varying crop types and avail- ability. We linked heterogeneous movement data across different agro-ecosystems to predict ecologically driven variability in the functional responses. We applied our approach to wild pigs (Sus scrofa), one of the most successful and detrimental IAS worldwide where agricultural resource depredation is an important driver of spread and establishment. We used continental- scale movement data within agro-ecosystems to quantify the functional response of agricul- tural resources relative to availability of crops and natural forage. We hypothesized that wild pigs would selectively use crops more often when natural forage resources were low. We also examined how individual attributes such as sex, crop type, and resource stimulus such as dis- tance to crops altered the magnitude of the functional response. There was a strong agricul- tural functional response where crop use was an accelerating function of crop availability at low density (Type III) and was highly context dependent. As hypothesized, there was a reduced response of crop use with increasing crop availability when non-agricultural resources were more available, emphasizing that crop damage levels are likely to be highly heterogeneous depending on surrounding natural resources and temporal availability of crops. We found sig- nificant effects of crop type and sex, with males spending 20% more time and visiting crops 58% more often than females, and both sexes showing different functional responses depend- ing on crop type. Our application demonstrates how commonly collected animal movement data can be used to understand context dependencies in resource use to improve our under- standing of pest foraging behavior, with implications for prioritizing spatiotemporal hotspots of potential economic loss in agro-ecosystems

The Role of <i>Roles</i> in Risk Management Change:The Case of an Italian Bank

This paper explores the role of roles (i.e. groups of actors characterised by the same functional tasks within an organisation), and of their interactions, within processes of change in risk management (RM). By combining insights from the literature on RM and from institutional studies, this paper suggests that change in RM can be interpreted as a process that involves both enabling and precipitating dynamics [Greenwood, R., &amp; Hinings, C. R. (1996). Understanding radical organizational change: Bringing together the old and the new institutionalism. The Academy of Management Review, 21, 1022\ue2\u80\u931054. doi:10.5465/AMR.1996.9704071862] between different roles. Aiming to address these dynamics empirically, we rely on a longitudinal case study of an Italian bank. The study shows that the interactions between roles were dependent on their respective specific interests, the different institutional templates they supported, and the shifts in power for control over relevant information. These dynamics both affected and were affected by the change in the template-in-use within the bank and allowed a sort of RM ideal (i.e. the search for more RM) to persist over evolving templates

Improving the accessibility and transferability of machine learning algorithms for identification of animals in camera trap images: MLWIC2

Motion-activated wildlife cameras (or “camera traps”) are frequently used to remotely and noninvasively observe animals. The vast number of images collected from camera trap projects has prompted some biologists to employ machine learning algorithms to automatically recognize species in these images, or at least filter-out images that do not contain animals. These approaches are often limited by model transferability, as a model trained to recognize species from one location might not work as well for the same species in different locations. Furthermore, these methods often require advanced computational skills, making them inaccessible to many biologists. We used 3 million camera trap images from 18 studies in 10 states across the United States of America to train two deep neural networks, one that recognizes 58 species, the “species model,” and one that determines if an image is empty or if it contains an animal, the “empty-animal model.” Our species model and empty-animal model had accuracies of 96.8% and 97.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the models performed well on some out-of-sample datasets, as the species model had 91% accuracy on species from Canada (accuracy range 36%–91% across all out-of-sample datasets) and the empty-animal model achieved an accuracy of 91%–94% on out-of-sample datasets from different continents. Our software addresses some of the limitations of using machine learning to classify images from camera traps. By including many species from several locations, our species model is potentially applicable to many camera trap studies in North America. We also found that our empty-animal model can facilitate removal of images without animals globally. We provide the trained models in an R package (MLWIC2: Machine Learning for Wildlife Image Classification in R), which contains Shiny Applications that allow scientists with minimal programming experience to use trained models and train new models in six neural network architectures with varying depths

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 6 family with phenotypic overlap with Multiple System Atrophy

Aim of the study. Multiple system atrophy (MSA) and spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) share similar symptomatology. We describe a rare occurrence of familial MSA that proved to be SCA6 upon genetic analysis.Materials and methods. Eighty MSA patients were enrolled in our study; blood samples were collected and genetic screening of the familial case for known SCA loci was performed.Results. A 68-year-old woman presented with recurrent and severe episodes of light-headedness, imbalance, frequent falls, neck and lower back stiffness, subjective arm and leg weakness, and numbness and tingling in both feet. One year later, her condition had declined; she experienced more falls, worsening instability, again more generalised but still subjective weakness, impaired fine motor movements, slurred speech, difficulty swallowing, episodes of choking, bladder incontinence, and constipation. Clinical suspicion included parkinsonism, MSA, and SCA. The patient was enrolled in our MSA study and was found to have 22 and 12 CAG repeats in CACNA1A. The other 79 clinical MSA patients were negative for SCA6 screening.Conclusions and clinical implications. While MSA and SCA may have similar presentations during early disease stages, the presence of both conditions on the list of differential diagnoses can be a diagnostic dilemma. Further analysis will aid in developing a biomarker to distinguish between the two conditions and guide proper management