Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification

This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics

Calculating Launch Vehicle Flight Performance Reserve

This paper addresses different methods for determining the amount of extra propellant (flight performance reserve or FPR) that is necessary to reach orbit with a high probability of success. One approach involves assuming that the various influential parameters are independent and that the result behaves as a Gaussian. Alternatively, probabilistic models may be used to determine the vehicle and environmental models that will be available (estimated) for a launch day go/no go decision. High-fidelity closed-loop Monte Carlo simulation determines the amount of propellant used with each random combination of parameters that are still unknown at the time of launch. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, several methods were used to calculate the FPR. The final chosen solution involves determining distributions for the pertinent outputs and running a separate Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a best estimate of the required FPR. This result differs from the result obtained using the other methods sufficiently that the higher fidelity is warranted

Launch Vehicle Failure Dynamics and Abort Triggering Analysis

Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an on-board crew. There are many types of failures that can kill the crew if the crew is still on-board when the failure becomes catastrophic. For some failure scenarios, there is plenty of time for the crew to be warned and to depart, whereas in some there is insufficient time for the crew to escape. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based primarily on data already available from the GN&C system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. Derivation of attitude and attitude rate abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false positives are avoided, forms a major portion of the paper. Some of the potential failure modes requiring use of these triggers are described, along with analysis used to determine the success rate of getting the crew off prior to vehicle demise

Launch Vehicle Abort Analysis for Failures Leading to Loss of Control

Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an onboard crew. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based on data already available from the Guidance, Navigation, and Control system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. The two primary areas of focus are the derivation of abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false aborts are avoided, and evaluation of success in aborting off the failing launch vehicle

Ares I Stage Separation System Design Certification Testing

NASA is committed to the development of a new crew launch vehicle, the Ares I, that can support human missions to low Earth orbit (LEO) and the moon with unprecedented safety and reliability. NASA's Constellation program comprises the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles, the Orion crew vehicle, and the Altair lunar lander. Based on historical precedent, stage separation is one of the most significant technical and systems engineering challenges that must be addressed in order to achieve this commitment. This paper surveys historical separation system tests that have been completed in order to ensure staging of other launch vehicles. Key separation system design trades evaluated for Ares I include single vs. dual separation plane options, retro-rockets vs. pneumatic gas actuators, small solid motor quantity/placement/timing, and continuous vs. clamshell interstage configuration options. Both subscale and full-scale tests are required to address the prediction of complex dynamic loading scenarios present during staging events. Test objectives such as separation system functionality, and pyroshock and debris field measurements for the full-scale tests are described. Discussion about the test article, support infrastructure and instrumentation are provided

Different Prey Resources Suggest Little Competition Between Non-Native Frogs and Insectivorous Birds Despite Isotopic Niche Overlap

Non-native amphibians often compete with native amphibians in their introduced range, but their competitive effects on other vertebrates are less well known. The Puerto Rican coqui frog (Eleutherodactylus coqui) has colonized the island of Hawaii, and has been hypothesized to compete with insectivorous birds and bats. To address if the coqui could compete with these vertebrates, we used stable isotope analyses to compare the trophic position and isotopic niche overlap between the coqui, three insectivorous bird species, and the Hawaiian hoary bat. Coquis shared similar trophic position to Hawaii amakihi, Japanese white-eye, and red-billed leiothrix. Coquis were about 3 ‰ less enriched in δ15N than the Hawaiian hoary bat, suggesting the bats feed at a higher trophic level than coquis. Analyses of potential diet sources between coquis and each of the three bird species indicate that there was more dietary overlap between bird species than any of the birds and the coqui. Results suggest that Acari, Amphipoda, and Blattodea made up \u3e90% of coqui diet, while Araneae made up only 2% of coqui diet, but approximately 25% of amakihi and white-eye diet. The three bird species shared similar proportions of Lepidoptera larvae, which were ~25% of their diet. Results suggest that coquis share few food resources with insectivorous birds, but occupy a similar trophic position, which could indicate weak competition. However, resource competition may not be the only way coquis impact insectivorous birds, and future research should examine whether coqui invasions are associated with changes in bird abundance

A life in progress: motion and emotion in the autobiography of Robert M. La Follette

This article is a study of a La Follette’s Autobiography, the autobiography of the leading Wisconsin progressive Robert M. La Follette, which was published serially in 1911 and, in book form, in 1913. Rather than focusing, as have other historians, on which parts of La Follette’s account are accurate and can therefore be trusted, it explains instead why and how this major autobiography was conceived and written. The article shows that the autobiography was the product of a sustained, complex, and often fraught series of collaborations among La Follette’s family, friends, and political allies, and in the process illuminates the importance of affective ties as well as political ambition and commitment in bringing the project to fruition. In the world of progressive reform, it argues, personal and political experiences were inseparable