Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the “cold pole problem”, particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic

Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050

Radiative-dynamical climatology of the first-generation Canadian middle atmosphere model

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Modelling (MAM) project is a collaboration between thé Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) of Environment Canada and several Canadian universities. Its goal is thé development of a comprehensive General Circulation Model of the troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere System, starting from the AES/CCCma third-generation atmospheric General Circulation Model. This paper describes the basic features of the first-generation Canadian MAM and some aspects of its radiative-dynamical climatology. Standard first-order mean diagnostics are presented for monthly means and for the annual cycle of zonal-mean winds and temperatures. The mean meridional circulation is examined, and comparison is made between thé steady diabatic, downward controlled, and residual stream functions. It is found that downward control holds quite well in the monthly mean through most of the middle atmosphere, even during equinoctal periods. The relative roles of different drag processes in determining the mean downwelling over the wintertime polar middle stratosphere is examined, and the vertical structure of the drag is quantified

Co-located ACE-FTS and Odin/SMR stratospheric-mesospheric CO 2004 measurements and comparison with a GCM

This paper presents a comparison of co-located and near simultaneous CO measurements from January to May, 2004 and from the Arctic to southern polar regions using the ACE-FTS, in solar occultation mode, and the Odin/SMR, which measures atmospheric emission. We find that there is excellent agreement between the two instruments at the locations investigated over 4 orders of magnitude from the lower stratosphere to the lower thermosphere. There is also good agreement with the CMAM model simulation from 20 km to 90 km in sub-tropical and tropical latitudes but poorer agreement in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in winter polar regions. For the Arctic in March 2004 this can be attributed, at least partly, to the unique dynamical processes in the stratosphere in the winter of 2003 - 2004. Clearly CO measurements from these instruments will provide a useful tool for testing model transport from the troposphere to the thermosphere

Comparison of CMAM simulations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) with observations from Odin/SMR, ACE-FTS, and Aura/MLS

Simulations of CO, N2O and CH4 from a coupled chemistry-climate model (CMAM) are compared with satellite measurements from Odin Sub-Millimeter Radiometer (Odin/SMR), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS). Pressure-latitude cross-sections and seasonal time series demonstrate that CMAM reproduces the observed global CO, N2O, and CH4 distributions quite well. Generally, excellent agreement with measurements is found between CO simulations and observations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Differences between the simulations and the ACE-FTS observations are generally within 30%, and the differences between CMAM results and SMR and MLS observations are slightly larger. These differences are comparable with the difference between the instruments in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. Comparisons of N2O show that CMAM results are usually within 15% of the measurements in the lower and middle stratosphere, and the observations are close to each other. However, the standard version of CMAM has a low N2O bias in the upper stratosphere. The CMAM CH4 distribution also reproduces the observations in the lower stratosphere, but has a similar but smaller negative bias in the upper stratosphere. The negative bias may be due to that the gravity drag is not fully resolved in the model. The simulated polar CO evolution in the Arctic and Antarctic agrees with the ACE and MLS observations. CO measurements from 2006 show evidence of enhanced descent of air from the mesosphere into the stratosphere in the Arctic after strong stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). CMAM also shows strong descent of air after SSWs. In the tropics, CMAM captures the annual oscillation in the lower stratosphere and the semiannual oscillations at the stratopause and mesopause seen in Aura/MLS CO and N2O observations and in Odin/SMR N2O observations. The Odin/SMR and Aura/MLS N2O observations also show a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the upper stratosphere, whereas, the CMAM does not have QBO included. This study confirms that CMAM is able to simulate middle atmospheric transport processes reasonably well

Issues in stratosphere-troposphere coupling

An overview is given of current issues concerning the coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere. The tropopause region, more generally the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, is the region of direct contact where exchange of material takes place. Dynamical coupling through angular momentum transfer by waves occurs nonlocally, and provides a generally negative torque on the stratosphere which drives an equator-to-pole circulation (i.e., towards the Earth’s axis of rotation). This wave-driven circulation is the principal mechanism for intraseasonal and interannual variability in the extratropical stratosphere. Although such variability is generally dynamical in origin, there are important chemical and radiative feedbacks. The location of the tropopause has implications for radiative forcing of climate, through its effect on the distribution of relatively short-lived greenhouse gases (ozone and water vapour). Some outstanding puzzles in our current understanding are identified. Attention is focused on possible climate sensitivities, and how these may be tested and constrained. Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a fully interactive radiative-chemical-dynamical general circulation model, are used to illustrate some of the points

Secretory immunoglobulin A: from mucosal protection to vaccine development.

Immune responses taking place in mucosal tissues are typified by secretory immunoglobulin A (S-IgA) molecules, which are assembled from proteins expressed in two cell lineages. The heavy and light chains as well as the J chain are produced in plasma cells, whereas the secretory component (SC) is associated to the immunoglobulin complex during transcytosis across the epithelial layer. S-IgA antibodies represent the predominant immunoglobulin class in external secretions, and the best defined entity providing specific immune protection for mucosal surfaces by blocking attachment of bacteria and viruses. S-IgA constitutes greater than 80% of all antibodies produced in mucosa-associated lymphoid tissues in humans. The existence of a common mucosal immune system permits immunization on one mucosal surface to induce secretion of antigen-specific S-IgA at distant sites. In addition, S-IgA antibodies not only function in external secretions, but also exert their antimicrobial properties within the epithelial cell during transport across the epithelium. Passive mucosal delivery of monoclonal IgA molecules neutralizes pathogens responsible for gastrointestinal and respiratory infections. Mucosal and systemic immunity can be achieved by orally administered recombinant S-IgA molecules carrying a protective bacterial epitope within the SC polypeptide primary sequence