Seasonal predictability of the winter NAO from north Atlantic sea surface temperatures

[1] We examine the seasonal predictability of the winter (December-January-February) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from lagged north Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1950/1-2000/1. We identify two lagged modes of SST variability whose principal components (PCs) are correlated significantly to upcoming winter NAO indices. We use linear regression with the PCs as predictors to assess the predictability of the winter NAO from cross-validation over the full period and from replicated real-time forecasts over the recent 15 year period 1986/7-2000/1. The model anticipates, in early November, the upcoming winter NAO - for a range of NAO indices - with a correlation between 0.47 and 0.63 for 1950/ 1-2000/1, and between 0.51 and 0.65 for the replicated real-time forecast period. The model also anticipates the correct NAO sign in 67% to 75% of the last 51 winters and in 80% to 93% of the last 15 winters

DCDIDP: A Distributed, Collaborative, and Data-driven IDP Framework for the Cloud

Recent advances in distributed computing, grid computing, virtualization mechanisms, and utility computing led into Cloud Computing as one of the industry buzz words of our decade. As the popularity of the services provided in the cloud environment grows exponentially, the exploitation of possible vulnerabilities grows with the same pace. Intrusion Detection and Prevention Systems (IDPSs) are one of the most popular tools among the front line fundamental tools to defend the computation and communication infrastructures from the intruders. In this poster, we propose a distributed, collaborative, and data-driven IDP (DCDIDP) framework for cloud computing environments. Both cloud providers and cloud customers will benefit significantly from DCDIDP that dynamically evolves and gradually mobilizes the resources in the cloud as suspicion about attacks increases. Such system will provide homogeneous IDPS for all the cloud providers that collaborate distributively. It will respond to the attacks, by collaborating with other peers and in a distributed manner, as near as possible to attack sources and at different levels of operations (e.g. network, host, VM). We present the DCDIDP framework and explain its components. However, further explanation is part of our ongoing work

A methodology for comparing design processes

Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge; Design and Innovation, Open UniversityWe gain insights into design processes by recognising similarities to other processes, often in radically different industries. The crucial determinants of what happens are characteristics shared with some other design processes. But there is no way to draw on comparisons beyond one's own experience. We are developing a programme of comparative design research that aims to map the similarities and differences between design processes, and develop a deeper understanding of how and why design is done differently in different industries, and how effective practices can be transferred between industries. In this paper we outline a methodology for creating analyses of design processes that facilitates both cross-process comparisons and the integration of different analytical perspectives on design. The analyst draws on a catalogue of previous design process descriptions for useful concepts, to map processes as a network of participants and activities and the relationships between them, and describe the causal relationships between the properties of the participants, activities and relationships.EPSR

Detection of Aliphatically Bridged Multi-Core Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Sooting Flames with Atmospheric-Sampling High-Resolution Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

This paper provides experimental evidence for the chemical structures of aliphatically substituted and bridged polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) species in gas-physe combustion environments. The identification of these single- and multicore aromatic species, which have been hypothesized to be important in PAH growth and soot nucleation, was made possible through a combination of sampling gaseous constituents from an atmospheric pressure inverse coflow diffusion flame of ethylene and high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry (MS-MS). In these experiments, the flame-sampled components were ionized using a continuous VUV lamp at 10.0 eV and the ions were subsequently fragmented through collisions with Ar atoms in a collision-induced dissociation (CID) process. The resulting fragment ions, which were separated using a reflectron time-of-flight mass spectrometer, were used to extract structural information about the sampled aromatic compounds. The high-resolution mass spectra revealed the presence of alkylated single-core aromatic compounds and the fragment ions that were observed correspond to the loss of saturated and unsaturated units containing up to a total of 6 carbon atoms. Furthermore, the aromatic structures that form the foundational building blocks of the larger PAHs were identified to be smaller single-ring and pericondensed aromatic species with repetitive structural features. For demonstrative purposes, details are provided for the CID of molecular ions at masses 202 and 434. Insights into the role of the aliphatically substituted and bridged aromatics in the reaction network of PAH growth chemistry were obtained from spatially resolved measurements of the flame. The experimental results are consistent with a growth mechanism in which alkylated aromatics are oxidized to form pericondensed ring structures or react and recombine with other aromatics to form larger, potentially three-dimensional, aliphatically bridged multicore aromatic hydrocarbons

Natural Variability in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Fine Particulate Matter Pollution

Variations in meteorology associated with climate change can impact fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution by affecting natural emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and pollutant transport. However, substantial discrepancies exist among model-based projections of PM2.5 impacts driven by anthropogenic climate change. Natural variability can significantly contribute to the uncertainty in these estimates. Using a large ensemble of climate and atmospheric chemistry simulations, we evaluate the influence of natural variability on projections of climate change impacts on PM2.5 pollution in the United States. We find that natural variability in simulated PM2.5 can be comparable or larger than reported estimates of anthropogenic-induced climate impacts. Relative to mean concentrations, the variability in projected PM2.5 climate impacts can also exceed that of ozone impacts. Based on our projections, we recommend that analyses aiming to isolate the effect climate change on PM2.5 use 10 years or more of modeling to capture the internal variability in air quality and increase confidence that the anthropogenic-forced effect is differentiated from the noise introduced by natural variability. Projections at a regional scale or under greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios can require additional modeling to attribute impacts to climate change. Adequately considering natural variability can be an important step toward explaining the inconsistencies in estimates of climate-induced impacts on PM2.5. Improved treatment of natural variability through extended modeling lengths or initial condition ensembles can reduce uncertainty in air quality projections and improve assessments of climate policy risks and benefits

Assembly of the precursor and processed light-harvesting chlorophyll a/b protein of Lemna into the light-harvesting complex II of barley etiochloroplasts.

When the in vitro synthesized precursor of a light-harvesting chlorophyll a/b binding protein (LHCP) from Lemna gibba is imported into barley etiochloroplasts, it is processed to a single form. Both the processed form and the precursor are found in the thylakoid membranes, assembled into the light-harvesting complex of photosystem II. Neither form can be detected in the stromal fraction. The relative amounts of precursor and processed forms observed in the thylakoids are dependent on the developmental stage of the plastids used for uptake. The precursor as well as the processed form can also be detected in thylakoids of greening maize plastids used in similar uptake experiments. This detection of a precursor in the thylakoids, which has not been previously reported, could be a result of using rapidly developing plastids and/or using an heterologous system. Our results demonstrate that the extent of processing of LHCP precursor is not a prerequisite for its inclusion in the complex. They are also consistent with the possibility that the processing step can occur after insertion of the protein into the thylakoid membrane

Functional and mutational analysis of the light-harvesting chlorophyll a/b protein of thylakoid membranes.

The precursor for a Lemna light-harvesting chlorophyll a/b protein (pLHCP) has been synthesized in vitro from a single member of the nuclear LHCP multigene family. We report the sequence of this gene. When incubated with Lemna chloroplasts, the pLHCP is imported and processed into several polypeptides, and the mature form is assembled into the light-harvesting complex of photosystem II (LHC II). The accumulation of the processed LHCP is enhanced by the addition to the chloroplasts of a precursor and a co-factor for chlorophyll biosynthesis. Using a model for the arrangement of the mature polypeptide in the thylakoid membrane as a guide, we have created mutations that lie within the mature coding region. We have studied the processing, the integration into thylakoid membranes, and the assembly into light-harvesting complexes of six of these deletions. Four different mutant LHCPs are found as processed proteins in the thylakoid membrane, but only one appears to have an orientation in the membrane that is similar to that of the wild type. No mutant LHCP appears in LHC II. The other two mutant LHCPs cannot be detected within the chloroplasts. We conclude that stable complex formation is not required for the processing and insertion of altered LHCPs into the thylakoid membrane. We discuss the results in light of our model

Some properties of the dissipative model of strain-gradient plasticity

A theoretical and computational investigation is carried out of a dissipative model of rate-independent strain-gradient plasticity and its regularization. It is shown that the flow relation, when expressed in terms of the Cauchy stress, is necessarily global. The most convenient approach to formulating the flow relation is through the use of a dissipation function. It is shown, however, that the task of obtaining the dual version, in the form of a normality relation, is a complex one. A numerical investigation casts further light on the response using the dissipative theory in situations of non-proportional loading. The elastic gap, a feature reported in recent investigations, is observed in situations in which passivation has been imposed. It is shown computationally that the gap may be regarded as an efficient path between a load-deformation response corresponding to micro-free boundary conditions, and that corresponding to micro-hard boundary conditions, in which plastic strains are set equal to zero.Comment: 26 pages, 10 figure