Deliverable 6.2: Detailed Policy Impact Model

The SEARCH project targets the analysis of the impact of the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) on the integration of EU neighboring countries with the EU. The research has focused on four areas, such as trade flows, people mobility, human capital, technological activities, innovation diffusion and institutional environment. Work Package 6 is the policy analysis package of SEARCH. This WP synthesizes research results of earlier work packages in order to present an overview of potential EU policy options for strengthening cohesion across the EU-27 and NC16 in the mid to long term. WP 6 employs different research methods ranging from systematic literature analysis via text mining techniques to Delphi methodology and economic modeling. Economic modeling has the advantage that it opens the possibility of ex ante simulating the likely impacts of different kinds of policies. Thus it provides a platform for the comparison of several policy options. This report provides a detailed description of the economic model that has been developed for estimating the likely impacts of certain policy prescriptions arising from research results of earlier work packages. The specific model construct chosen is the GMR (Geographic Macro and Regional) modeling approach that has been applied earlier for Cohesion policy and EU Framework Program impact analyses at the levels of European regions, the European Union and Hungary. The particular country chosen for impact analysis is Turkey. This choice is motivated by practical reasons: availability and reliability of data for modeling. Though data collection for Turkey is not a process without difficulties the situation in this respect is relatively more advantageous there as compared to other ENP countries (with the exception of Israel which cannot be considered as a typical ENP country for other reasons). Turkey is an accession country but in several respects its economic, social and cultural features make this country reasonably comparable to many of the ENP countries. In this report we introduce GMR-Turkey. Its applications in actual policy analyses will be reported in working papers and in another deliveries. This report has the following structure. The second section provides a general overview of GMR-Turkey. Detailed information about modeling structure is given in Section 3. Sensitivity results are reported in Section 4

A Policy Research Method Case-Study: Generating and Extracting Evidence-based Policy Inferences from a large EC Framework Programme Project

In 2004 the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was instituted following the greatest single enlargement of the European Union (EU), to support security and peaceful relations between the EU and neighbouring countries with a unified governance approach to economic, social and political aspects of international cooperation. This paper reports on an effort to develop and test a methodology for bridging social science research and policy communities on an important policy question that concerns comity between the EU and its Eurasian, Middle Eastern and North African neighbouring countries1, although the approach applies to any broad policy issue for which multiple sources and types of research evidence are present. Five evaluative elements are developed and implemented whose complementary application result in a large set of policy inferences, a strategy of implementation, and researcher insights concerning the method. This case study suggests that the recommended evidence synthesis methodology has good potential for informing policy that is comprised of multiple elements, studied by large research teams, and enacted by diverse agents. The suggested methodology requires engagement by active researchers and policy experts in the formulation of policy options. It is put forward that improving the quality of evidence-informed policy will depend upon institutions and practices in the research and policy making communities. (authors' abstract)Series: SRE - Discussion Paper

Economic impact assessment of alternative European Neighborhood policy (ENP) options with the application of the GMR- Turkey model

Abstract This paper applies the GMR-Turkey policy impact model to estimate the likely regional effects of a selected set of policies suggested in the European Neighborhood Policy literature. We grouped the policy suggestions into two alternative sets of measures, which became the bases of two alternative scenarios of regional economic development, the Conservative scenario and the Technology- and innovation-based development scenario. Our results suggest that a persistent and systematic long-term regional technology development-based economic policy which applies measures such as investment, education and R&D support, promotion of better connectedness to EU research networks and increased physical accessibility to developed markets could in the longer run result in higher levels of regional and national production together with decreasing interregional differences than a scenario supporting the expansion of traditional industries in the region

Solar Energy Simulations in Historical Districts for Retrofitting and Evidence-Based Decision Making: Data Challenges for Low Carbon Cities in the EU Neighbourhood & Accession Countries

Transformation of cities to low carbon cities is a global policy priority that attracts a wide range of actors, including policymakers, local governments, scientists as well as associated technology companies. On the other hand, the geographic, climatic, and structural variations across cities are high not only at the global level but also in sub-continental regions. Besides, the cities also contain highly varied districts with respect to their built environment, land use, microclimatic conditions, and geographical and topological features, where some type of districts may require similar solutions adopted in other cities rather than the district’s own city. Historical districts constitute a particular category from this perspective, where retrofitting and application of smart energy systems and energy-efficient solutions depend on different issues than in other districts. Historical districts have unique problems with respect to the adoption of smart and energy-efficient technologies. While positive carbon districts imply energy production at the site, low carbon districts instead focus on decreasing energy usage and carbon footprints. The selection of the appropriate basic strategy at the district level relies on sound scientific assessment. The assessment should be able to evaluate whether the district is capable of locally producing positive energy outputs without significantly altering or destroying the historical characteristics and ongoing or proposed socio-economic functions. As an example, assessment of the application of solar energy panels in historic neighbourhoods require building based modelling approaches for: a) understanding whether solar energy panels may function within a required technical operation range in built environments; b) if the energy produced locally may be distributed to other buildings in the district; c) if historical buildings can safely accommodate solar energy panels and associated infrastructure; d) if energy storage is necessary and if buildings possess suitable interior spaces for safe storage of electric energy. All these categories of assessment require standardised, rich, transmissible data on various properties of the interior and exterior of existing buildings, of open spaces, and of existing infrastructure. Often, historical neighbourhoods consist of a large number of buildings and extensions which have been subject to an unknown number of interventions over time with varying quality. It is highly unlikely that any existing databases could provide the basis for the extraction of relevant information, as in the past the purposes of such data collectiond did not involve objectives regarding energy efficiency or positive energy potentials. On the other hand, it would be costly and technically challenging to collect all such data from the site by traditional surveys. This problem is exacerbated as many cities now face sudden policy pressures to apply sustainable energy action plans at short notice. All these issues force the stakeholders to seek effective solutions for collecting data, structuring of data and conducting integrated-holistic retrofit simulations in historical districts that provide the evidence-based information for the selection of the suitable technological approach and strategic choices to transform historical cities into low carbon cities. In addition, such simulations might enable a healthier assessment of making use of carbon credits and other incentives in line with such strategies and interventions. This paper discusses the general situation of historical districts and their assessment as positive or low energy districts, in the context of EU Neighbourhood countries. As a first step, the paper evaluates the regulatory framework regarding the UNDP Sustainable Development Goals, global climate change, EU Energy Policy, cultural heritage preservation, retrofitting in historical districts, and research-policy connections. Next, the paper surveys the literature associated with the data problems in the simulation of the application of sustainable energy systems and provides a critical evaluation of the general case of historical districts. Third, the paper explores the situation of data assets in the EU, its neighbourhood and Turkey, with a particular emphasis on building level data about buildings in historic districts. The paper discusses alternative approaches to effective data collection and joining strategies that would serve for different levels of PV solar energy simulations in historical districts. The paper concludes by providing a research agenda on PV Solar Energy simulations in historical districts for improving relationships between scientific research and policies addressing Climate Change