Analyzing the two-dimensional plot of the interannual climate variability for detection of the climate change in the Large Karoun River Basin, Iran

In most studies on climate change, the first problem often faced by the researcher is detecting the climate change of the study area during the past periods and attributing it to the greenhouse gases. In this study, an attempt has been made to introduce a method for detecting the climate change during the past periods in regional scale and attributing it to greenhouse gases with regard to climate processes in a region. For this purpose, at first it is necessary to calculate the interannual variability range of the region climatic variables, resulting from the interaction between the climate systems of the ‘earth’ (atmosphere, biosphere, etc.). Hence, long-term statistics (1000 years) of the temperature and precipitation, resulting from control run (fix greenhouse gases) of AOGCM models (HadCM3 and CGCM3), were used for Large Karoun River Basin. Then, based on the two-variant normal distribution, the interannual climate variability range of the study area was plotted as two-dimensional temperatureprecipitation graphs. Next, the annual temperature and precipitation anomaly values of the observation stations in different regions of Large Karoun River Basin were compared with the region interannual variability range for detecting the climate change of the study area during the past and attributing it to greenhouse gases. The results show increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation trends, denoting the fact that the temperature variable has been influenced by the climate change. So, in all regions of the Large Karoun River Basin, the final years of the period (1971 to 2009) have almost been located outside the interannual climate variability range, indicating the effect of climate change on the climatic variables of the said years.Key words: Interannual climate variability, detecting the climate change, AOGCM models, Large Karoun River Basin

Setting research priorities to achieve long-term health targets in Iran

Background: In 2015, it was estimated that the burden of disease in Iran comprised of 19 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 74% of which were due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The observed leading causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (41.9%), neoplasms (14.9%), and road traffic injuries (7.4%). Even so, the health research investment in Iran continues to remain limited. This study aims to identify national health research priorities in Iran for the next five years to assist the efficient use of resources towards achieving the long-term health targets. Methods: Adapting the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, this study engaged 48 prominent Iranian academic leaders in the areas related to Iran's long-term health targets, a group of research funders and policy makers, and 68 stakeholders from the wider society. 128 proposed research questions were scored independently using a set of five criteria: feasibility, impact on health, impact on economy, capacity building, and equity. Findings: The top-10 priorities were focused on the research questions relating to: health insurance system reforms to improve equity; integration of NCDs prevention strategy into primary health care; cost-effective population-level interventions for NCDs and road traffic injury prevention; tailoring medical qualifications; epidemiological assessment of NCDs by geographic areas; equality in the distribution of health resources and services; current and future common health problems in Iran's elderly and strategies to reduce their economic burden; the status of antibiotic resistance in Iran and strategies to promote rational use of antibiotics; the health impacts of water crisis; and research to replace the physician-centered health system with a team-based one. Conclusions: These findings highlight consensus amongst various prominent Iranian researchers and stakeholders over the research priorities that require investment to generate information and knowledge relevant to the national health targets and policies. The exercise should assist in addressing the knowledge gaps to support both the National General Health Policies by 2025 and the health targets of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals by 2030