Power-law population heterogeneity governs epidemic waves

We generalize the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model for epidemics to take into account generic effects of heterogeneity in the degree of susceptibility to infection in the population. We introduce a single new parameter corresponding to a power-law exponent of the susceptibility distribution at small susceptibilities. We find that for this class of distributions the gamma distribution is the attractor of the dynamics. This allows us to identify generic effects of population heterogeneity in a model as simple as the original SIR model which is contained as a limiting case. Because of this simplicity, numerical solutions can be generated easily and key properties of the epidemic wave can still be obtained exactly. In particular, we present exact expressions for the herd immunity level, the final size of the epidemic, as well as for the shape of the wave and for observables that can be quantified during an epidemic. In strongly heterogeneous populations, the herd immunity level can be much lower than in models with homogeneous populations as commonly used for example to discuss effects of mitigation. Using our model to analyze data for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Germany shows that the reported time course is consistent with several scenarios characterized by different levels of immunity. These scenarios differ in population heterogeneity and in the time course of the infection rate, for example due to mitigation efforts or seasonality. Our analysis reveals that quantifying the effects of mitigation requires knowledge on the degree of heterogeneity in the population. Our work shows that key effects of population heterogeneity can be captured without increasing the complexity of the model. We show that information about population heterogeneity will be key to understand how far an epidemic has progressed and what can be expected for its future course

Quantitative theory for the diffusive dynamics of liquid condensates

Key processes of biological condensates are diffusion and material exchange with their environment. Experimentally, diffusive dynamics are typically probed via fluorescent labels. However, to date, a physics-based, quantitative framework for the dynamics of labeled condensate components is lacking. Here, we derive the corresponding dynamic equations, building on the physics of phase separation, and quantitatively validate the related framework via experiments. We show that by using our framework, we can precisely determine diffusion coefficients inside liquid condensates via a spatio-temporal analysis of fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) experiments. We showcase the accuracy and precision of our approach by considering space- and time-resolved data of protein condensates and two different polyelectrolyte-coacervate systems. Interestingly, our theory can also be used to determine a relationship between the diffusion coefficient in the dilute phase and the partition coefficient, without relying on fluorescence measurements in the dilute phase. This enables us to investigate the effect of salt addition on partitioning and bypasses recently described quenching artifacts in the dense phase. Our approach opens new avenues for theoretically describing molecule dynamics in condensates, measuring concentrations based on the dynamics of fluorescence intensities, and quantifying rates of biochemical reactions in liquid condensates

Redução do sangramento em cirurgia cardíaca com circulação extracorpórea : emprego do ácido tranexâmico

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