Transparency, expectations, and forecasts

In 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began to release statements after each meeting. This paper investigates whether the public’s views about the current path of the economy and of future policy have been affected by changes in the Federal Reserve’s communications policy as reflected in private sector’s forecasts of future economic conditions and policy moves. In particular, has the ability of private agents to predict where the economy is going improved since 1994? If so, on which dimensions has the ability to forecast improved? We find evidence that the individuals’ forecasts have been more synchronized since 1994, implying the possible effects of the FOMC’s transparency. On the other hand, we find little evidence that the common forecast errors, which are the driving force of overall forecast errors, have become smaller since 1994.

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF GENETIC INFORMATION: LEPTIN GENOTYPING IN FED CATTLE

The use of genetic knowledge is widespread in crop production but is just recently being utilized in livestock production. This study investigates the economic value to feedlots of a polymorphism in the bovine leptin gene. Previous studies indicate that this polymorphism is associated with fat deposition. Since fed cattle are often priced on a grid that considers both yield and quality grades, fat deposition is an important factor in the value and profitability of fed cattle. Using data from 590 crossbred steers and heifers, we estimate growth curves for relevant biological traits, both with and without genotypic information. Using the resulting functions, we then simulate carcass traits to various days-on-feed and compute the associated profit under three price grids. Maximum profits are determined in an unconstrained profit maximization model and in a model that constrains cattle to be marketed in 45-head "potloads." Results indicate that leptin genotypic knowledge has little impact on optimal days-on-feed but may play a role in valuing feeder cattle. The differences in value of cattle varied by as much as $37 per head between genotypes.genetics, leptin genotype, beef cattle, value of information, Livestock Production/Industries,

Addiction History Associates with the Propensity to Form Habits

Learned habitual responses to environmental stimuli allow efficient interaction with the environment, freeing cognitive resources for more demanding tasks. However, when the outcome of such actions is no longer a desired goal, established stimulus-response (S-R) associations, or habits, must be overcome. Among people with substance use disorders (SUDs), difficulty in overcoming habitual responses to stimuli associated with their addiction in favor of new, goal-directed behaviors, contributes to relapse. Animal models of habit learning demonstrate that chronic self-administration of drugs of abuse promotes habitual responding beyond the domain of compulsive drug seeking. However, whether a similar propensity toward domain-general habitual responding occurs in humans with SUDs has remained unclear. To address this question, we used a visuomotor S-R learning and re-learning task, the Hidden Association Between Images Task (HABIT), which employs abstract visual stimuli and manual responses. This task allows us to measure new S-R association learning, well-learned S-R association execution, and includes a response contingency change manipulation to quantify the degree to which responding is habit-based, rather than goal-directed. We find that people with SUDs learn new S-R associations as well as healthy control subjects do. Moreover, people with an SUD history slightly outperform controls in S-R execution. In contrast, people with SUDs are specifically impaired in overcoming well-learned S-R associations; those with SUDs make a significantly greater proportion of perseverative errors during well-learned S-R replacement, indicating the more habitual nature of their responses. Thus, with equivalent training and practice, people with SUDs appear to show enhanced domain-general habit formation

Internet-based psychoeducation for bipolar disorder: a qualitative analysis of feasibility, acceptability and impact

<p>Background: In a recent exploratory randomised trial we found that a novel, internet-based psychoeducation programme for bipolar disorder (Beating Bipolar) was relatively easy to deliver and had a modest effect on psychological quality of life. We sought to explore the experiences of participants with respect to feasibility, acceptability and impact of Beating Bipolar.</p> <p>Methods: Participants were invited to take part in a semi-structured interview. Thematic analysis techniques were employed; to explore and describe participants’ experiences, the data were analysed for emerging themes which were identified and coded.</p> <p>Results: The programme was feasible to deliver and acceptable to participants where they felt comfortable using a computer. It was found to impact upon insight into illness, health behaviour, personal routines and positive attitudes towards medication. Many participants regarded the programme as likely to be most beneficial for those recently diagnosed.</p> <p>Conclusions: An online psychoeducation package for bipolar disorder, such as Beating Bipolar, is feasible and acceptable to patients, has a positive impact on self-management behaviours and may be particularly suited to early intervention. Alternative (non-internet) formats should also be made available to patients.</p&gt

Quantifying structural damage from self-irradiation in a plutonium superconductor

The 18.5 K superconductor PuCoGa5 has many unusual properties, including those due to damage induced by self-irradiation. The superconducting transition temperature decreases sharply with time, suggesting a radiation-induced Frenkel defect concentration much larger than predicted by current radiation damage theories. Extended x-ray absorption fine-structure measurements demonstrate that while the local crystal structure in fresh material is well ordered, aged material is disordered much more strongly than expected from simple defects, consistent with strong disorder throughout the damage cascade region. These data highlight the potential impact of local lattice distortions relative to defects on the properties of irradiated materials and underscore the need for more atomic-resolution structural comparisons between radiation damage experiments and theory.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, to be published in PR

First-principles study of the atomic and electronic structure of the Si(111)-(5x2-Au surface reconstruction

We present a systematic study of the atomic and electronic structure of the Si(111)-(5x2)-Au reconstruction using first-principles electronic structure calculations based on the density functional theory. We analyze the structural models proposed by Marks and Plass [Phys. Rev. Lett.75, 2172 (1995)], those proposed recently by Erwin [Phys. Rev. Lett.91, 206101 (2003)], and a completely new structure that was found during our structural optimizations. We study in detail the energetics and the structural and electronic properties of the different models. For the two most stable models, we also calculate the change in the surface energy as a function of the content of silicon adatoms for a realistic range of concentrations. Our new model is the energetically most favorable in the range of low adatom concentrations, while Erwin's "5x2" model becomes favorable for larger adatom concentrations. The crossing between the surface energies of both structures is found close to 1/2 adatoms per 5x2 unit cell, i.e. near the maximum adatom coverage observed in the experiments. Both models, the new structure and Erwin's "5x2" model, seem to provide a good description of many of the available experimental data, particularly of the angle-resolved photoemission measurements

Community cleavages: gay and bisexual men's perceptions of gay and mainstream community acceptance in the post-AIDS, post-rights era

Changes in gay and bisexual men's connectedness to the gay community are related to the declining public visibility of HIV/AIDS and greater acceptance for homosexuality and bisexuality in mainstream society. Little work, however, has focused on perceived acceptance for subgroups within the gay community or broader society. Using interviews (n = 20) and a survey (n = 202) of gay and bisexual men in a mid-sized Canadian city, we find perceived hierarchies of acceptance for the various subgroups as well as an age effect wherein middle-aged men perceive the least acceptance for all groups. These differences are linked with the uneven impact of social, political, and institutional changes relevant to gay and bisexual men in Canada