Modeling Strategic Decisions in the Formation of the Early Neo-Assyrian Empire

Understanding patterns of conflict and pathways in which political history became established is critical to understanding how large states and empires ultimately develop and come to rule given regions and influence subsequent events. We employ a spatiotemporal Cox regression model to investigate possible causes as to why regions were attacked by the Neo-Assyrian (912-608 BCE) state. The model helps to explain how strategic benefits and costs lead to likely pathways of conflict and imperialism based on elite strategic decision-making. We apply this model to the early 9th century BCE, a time when historical texts allow us to trace yearly campaigns in specific regions, to understand how the Neo-Assyrian state began to re-emerge as a major political player, eventually going on to dominate much of the Near East and starting a process of imperialism that shaped the wider region for many centuries even after the fall of this state. The model demonstrates why specific locations become regions of conflict in given campaigns, emphasizing a degree of consistency with which choices were made by invading forces with respect to a number of factors. We find that elevation and population density deter Assyrian invasions. Moreover, costs were found to be more of a clear motivator for Assyrian invasions, with distance constraints being a significant driver in determining where to campaign. These outputs suggest that Assyria was mainly interested in attacking its weakest, based on population and/or organization, and nearest rivals as it began to expand. Results not only help to address the emergence of this empire, but enable a generalized understanding of how benefits and costs to conflict can lead to imperialism and pathways to political outcomes that can have major social relevance

Geographic patterns of diffusion in the 2011 London riots

Surprisingly little research has examined the localised diffusion of riots within cities. In this paper, we investigate such patterns during the 2011 London riots, and consider how they changed as police numbers increased. Understanding how offences spread in space and time can provide insights regarding the mechanisms of contagion, and of the risk of events spreading between contiguous areas. Using spatial–temporal grids of varying resolution, and a Monte Carlo simulation, we compare observed patterns with those expected assuming the timing and location of events are independent. In particular, we differentiate between four space–time signatures: “flashpoints” of disorder which appear out of nowhere, “containment” whereby already affected areas experience further events, “escalation” whereby rioting continues in affected areas and spreads to those nearby, and “relocation” whereby the disorder moves from one locality to those adjacent. During the first half of the disorder, fewer counts of relocation diffusion were observed than expected, but patterns of containment, escalation, and flashpoints were all more prominent. For the second half of the disorder, when police capacity increased roughly three-fold, observed patterns did not differ from expectation. Our results show support for theories of spatial contagion, and suggest that there was a degree of coordination amongst rioters. They also show that police activity did not just suppress rioting, but dampened the influence of contagion, without displacement

Ten Tonne Plan: Education for sustainability from a whole systems thinking perspective

The Ten Tonne Plan is a greenhouse gas emissions reduction initiative that aimed to reduce school emissions by 10 tonnes (metric tons) in one year. A case study was conducted on the impact of this initiative at a primary school in Western Australia. Research investigated student, staff, parent, and community partner perceptions following participation. Results showed the school achieved its goal through the implementation of a variety of environmental and social actions undertaken by the whole school community. Findings identified strengths and weaknesses of the initiative. The Ten Tonne Plan provided a model that is applicable in a variety of school settings

360° of change: 360 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in a school

A greenhouse gas emissions reduction initiative, involving a progressive series of plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been successfully implemented for over five years at a primary school in Western Australia. A ten tonne greenhouse gas emissions reduction target was achieved in 2011, a fifty tonne plan implemented in 2012, and a one hundred tonne plan in 2013-2014. A two hundred tonne target was reached in 2016. To achieve these targets the emissions reduction plans involved undertaking a variety of biodiversity, waste, water, energy, air quality and social actions, within a whole school, whole systems thinking perspective. The effectiveness of this initiative is illustrated by three whole systems thinking sustainability projects conducted at the school. These projects involve local bushland, wetland and international settings and actions. Evidence relating to the depth of participant involvement, together with commitment to whole systems thinking and the overarching emissions reduction initiative is highlighted. Links to biodiversity, waste, water, air quality and social interconnections were documented in relation to emissions reductions, which were achieved through actions such as tree planting, litter collection and the purchase of solar lanterns. Overall, the initiative provided a successful example of systems thinking in action and demonstrated deep interconnections between different aspects of sustainability, both within the local setting and global sustainability contexts

Spatio-temporal modelling of civil violence: Four frameworks for obtaining policy-relevant insights

Mathematical modelling of civil violence can be accomplished in different ways. In this thesis, four modelling frameworks are investigated, each of which leads to different insights into the spatio-temporal properties of civil violence. These frameworks vary with respect to the extent in which empirical data is used in generating model assumptions, and the extent in which simplifying assumptions distance the model from the real world. An overarching objective is to compare the insights and underlying assumptions of each framework, and to consider how they might be consolidated to aid policy decision-making. Within each framework, novel contributions both to the mathematical modelling of social systems, and to the theoretical understanding of civil violence are made. First, a novel data-driven approach for analysing local patterns of geographic diffusion in event data is presented, and applied to offences associated with the 2011 London riots. Second, by considering the decision-making of individuals, thereby taking an agent-based perspective, and using existing theory to construct model assumptions, a parametric statistical model of discrete choice is derived that more closely inspects the targets chosen by rioters, and how these choices might have changed over time. The application of this model to the policy domain is explored by considering police deployment strategies. Third, focusing on the interaction between two adversaries, and employing stochastic point process models, a series of multivariate and nonlinear Hawkes processes are proposed and used to explore spatio-temporal dependency during the Naxal insurgency in India. Fourth, a novel spatially-explicit differential equation-based model of conflict escalation between two adversaries is derived. A bifurcation is identified that results from the spatial disaggregation of the model. Implications for the interpretation of the model in the real world and potential applications are discussed

Prompting transdisciplinary research: Promising futures for using the performance metaphor in research

Transdisciplinary research is increasingly recognised as important for investigating and addressing 'wicked' problems such as climate change, food insecurity and poverty, but is far from commonplace. There are structural impediments to transdisciplinarity such as university structures, publication requirements and funding preferences that perpetuate disciplinary differences and researchers often lack transdisciplinary experience and expertise. In this paper we present a heuristic that aims to encourage researchers to think about their current research as performance and then imagine different performances, with the view to encouraging reflection and creativity about the transdisciplinary potential and dilemmas. The heuristic is inspired by the metaphor of performance that Erving Goffman uses to understand everyday, face-to-face interactions. The heuristic includes scaffolding for imagining research as performance through a transdisciplinary lens, a suggested process for using the tool, and examples based on the every day research projects. The paper describes the application of the heuristic in a graduate masterclass, reflecting on whether it does indeed 'prompt' transdisciplinary research. Limitations and lessons learned for further refinement of the heuristic are also included. The authors conclude that the heuristic has a range of uses including for self-reflection, and as a practical learning tool that can also be used at the start of integrative research projects

A dynamic spatial model of conflict escalation

In both historical and modern conflicts, space plays a critical role in how interactions occur over time. Despite its importance, the spatial distribution of adversaries has often been neglected in mathematical models of conflict. In this paper, we propose an entropy-maximising spatial interaction method for disaggregating the impact of space, employing a general notion of ‘threat’ between two adversaries. This approach addresses a number of limitations that are associated with partial differential equation approaches to spatial disaggregation. We use this method to spatially disaggregate the Richardson model of conflict escalation, and then explore the resulting model with both analytical and numerical treatments. A bifurcation is identified that dramatically influences the resulting spatial distribution of conflict and is shown to persist under a range of model specifications. Implications of this finding for real-world conflicts are discussed

Quenda; nature's gardeners

Like many of Australia’s digging mammals, the southern-brown bandicoot (known locally in the southwest of WA as the quenda) is considered an ecosystem engineer — their digging activities alter their physical surroundings, changing resource availability for other plants and animals. The ‘ecosystem services’ provided by quenda are likely to be crucial to maintaining a healthy ecosystem

Project MARGIN: Factors affecting insecurity

The research undertaken in Work Package 3 has identified a number of indicators of insecurity following the analysis of victimisation surveys and police recorded crime data from each study region of the MARGIN project. From this analysis, it is clear that insecurity is a multi-faceted concept, with different factors acting at the individual, neighbourhood and even country levels. Despite this complexity, the analysis has identified several robust correlates of insecurity that should be focused on in the subsequent research of the MARGIN project. In this report, we discuss these factors with the intention of guiding future research. Work package 3 was designed to undertake analysis of the MARGIN database. Resulting from this analysis, a taxonomy to enable the selection of two neighbourhoods in each of the five cities of the MARGIN project—in which future research will be conducted—was defined. More detailed descriptions of these findings can be found in Deliverables 3.1 – 3.3. In this report, we give an overview of our findings and comment on how they largely conform to concepts and trends found in the existing research literature (which overwhelmingly focusses on trends within rather than between countries). We also discuss the limitations of our findings. Many of these limitations are familiar problems associated with cross-national comparisons of administrative surveys with little consistency in survey design. A further factor limiting any survey based research is that there will inevitably be questions that could have been asked but were not. In the final part of this report, we consider whether there are any areas of enquiry that could usefully be included in the MARGIN survey, which would help us to further understand the emergence of insecurity within marginalised communities

Project MARGIN: Conceptual report: defining the indicators defining demographic, socioeconomic and socio-geographic determinants of insecurity

In Deliverable 2.1 of the MARGIN project, a database was collated to enable a comparative analysis between police recorded crime data and crime victimisation surveys across five European countries. In the present report, we present such an analysis in order to identify a range of demographic, socioeconomic, and socio-geographic determinants of insecurity. The available data enable two dimensions of insecurity to be addressed. The first, victimisation, can be measured through two sources: police recorded crime data and responses to questions regarding victimisation in a crime victimisation survey. This dimension of insecurity is known in the MARGIN project as the objective dimension as it attempts to capture individuals’ actual experiences with crime. The second, perceived insecurity, relates to questions in the crime victimisation survey surrounding respondents’ thoughts about crime, safety, and how their perceptions about crime alter their habits. This aspect is known as the subjective dimension. It has been shown previously that, although related, perceived insecurity and victimisation capture different aspects of insecurity. Moreover, there are some instances where people who have a very small risk of experiencing victimisation in fact have very high levels of perceived insecurity (see Doran and Burgess (2012) for a review). In this report, we analyse consistencies in the MARGIN database with respect to a range of indicators of insecurity. It is important to determine indicators of insecurity in order to identify marginalised communities who tend to experience a disproportionate amount of victimisation and who also have high levels of perceived insecurity and fear of crime. Identification of such communities can enable directed policies to reduce levels of insecurity. The results of this analysis are intended to inform the development of the MARGIN victimisation survey being developed in Work Package 4. In what follows, we first conceptualise the objective dimension by examining victimisation rates across the different study areas, as obtained from both police recorded crime and victimisation survey data. Next, we consider the subjective dimension by considering questions relating to different aspects of perceived insecurity. After describing a number of problems that arise when attempting to directly compare questions across the different victimisation surveys, we turn to the identification of a range of demographic and socioeconomic indicators which we find to be associated with particular aspects of perceived insecurity. We present the results of a range of regression analyses performed with this data. Finally, we discuss a range of potential sociogeographic indicators of insecurity, focusing particularly on the example of street robbery in Barcelona. We also discuss a range of other points to be considered in the identification of marginalised communities