The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk

A finite element based formulation for sensitivity studies of piezoelectric systems

Sensitivity Analysis is a branch of numerical analysis which aims to quantify the affects that variability in the parameters of a numerical model have on the model output. A finite element based sensitivity analysis formulation for piezoelectric media is developed here and implemented to simulate the operational and sensitivity characteristics of a piezoelectric based distributed mode actuator (DMA). The work acts as a starting point for robustness analysis in the DMA technology

Insight into Resonant Activation in Discrete Systems

The resonant activation phenomenon (RAP) in a discrete system is studied using the master equation formalism. We show that the RAP corresponds to a non-monotonic behavior of the frequency dependent first passage time probability density function (pdf). An analytical expression for the resonant frequency is introduced, which, together with numerical results, helps understand the RAP behavior in the space spanned by the transition rates for the case of reflecting and absorbing boundary conditions. The limited range of system parameters for which the RAP occurs is discussed. We show that a minimum and a maximum in the mean first passage time (MFPT) can be obtained when both boundaries are absorbing. Relationships to some biological systems are suggested.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, Phys. Rev. E., in pres

Emergence of steady and oscillatory localized structures in a phytoplankton-nutrient model

Co-limitation of marine phytoplankton growth by light and nutrient, both of which are essential for phytoplankton, leads to complex dynamic behavior and a wide array of coherent patterns. The building blocks of this array can be considered to be deep chlorophyll maxima, or DCMs, which are structures localized in a finite depth interior to the water column. From an ecological point of view, DCMs are evocative of a balance between the inflow of light from the water surface and of nutrients from the sediment. From a (linear) bifurcational point of view, they appear through a transcritical bifurcation in which the trivial, no-plankton steady state is destabilized. This article is devoted to the analytic investigation of the weakly nonlinear dynamics of these DCM patterns, and it has two overarching themes. The first of these concerns the fate of the destabilizing stationary DCM mode beyond the center manifold regime. Exploiting the natural singularly perturbed nature of the model, we derive an explicit reduced model of asymptotically high dimension which fully captures these dynamics. Our subsequent and fully detailed study of this model - which involves a subtle asymptotic analysis necessarily transgressing the boundaries of a local center manifold reduction - establishes that a stable DCM pattern indeed appears from a transcritical bifurcation. However, we also deduce that asymptotically close to the original destabilization, the DCM looses its stability in a secondary bifurcation of Hopf type. This is in agreement with indications from numerical simulations available in the literature. Employing the same methods, we also identify a much larger DCM pattern. The development of the method underpinning this work - which, we expect, shall prove useful for a larger class of models - forms the second theme of this article

Finite to infinite steady state solutions, bifurcations of an integro-differential equation

We consider a bistable integral equation which governs the stationary solutions of a convolution model of solid--solid phase transitions on a circle. We study the bifurcations of the set of the stationary solutions as the diffusion coefficient is varied to examine the transition from an infinite number of steady states to three for the continuum limit of the semi--discretised system. We show how the symmetry of the problem is responsible for the generation and stabilisation of equilibria and comment on the puzzling connection between continuity and stability that exists in this problem

Probing a non-biaxial behavior of infinitely thin hard platelets

We give a criterion to test a non-biaxial behavior of infinitely thin hard platelets of $D_{2h}$ symmetry based upon the components of three order parameter tensors. We investigated the nematic behavior of monodisperse infinitely thin rectangular hard platelet systems by using the criterion. Starting with a square platelet system, and we compared it with rectangular platelet systems of various aspect ratios. For each system, we performed equilibration runs by using isobaric Monte Carlo simulations. Each system did not show a biaxial nematic behavior but a uniaxial nematic one, despite of the shape anisotropy of those platelets. The relationship between effective diameters by simulations and theoretical effective diameters of the above systems was also determined.Comment: Submitted to JPS