Future estuarine circulation patterns characterization based on a hydrodynamic models ensemble

&lt;p&gt;Estuarine regions are strategically important from an environmental, economic, and social point of view. To reduce vulnerability and increase resilience, it is crucial to know their dynamics that usually are poorly understood. Numerical models have proven to be an appropriate tool to improve this knowledge and simulate scenarios for future conditions. However, as the modelling results may be inaccurate, the application of the ensembles technique can be very useful in reducing possible uncertainties. In the EsCo-Ensembles project, this technique is proposed to improve hydrodynamic predictions for two Portuguese estuaries: Douro and Minho.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Two already validated numerical models (openTELEMAC-MASCARET and Delft3D), which have demonstrated their ability to accurately describe estuarine hydrodynamic patterns and water elevation for river flow in normal and extreme conditions, were applied. Several scenarios for climate change effects were defined including river flood peak flows for the 100 and 1000 year return periods and sea level extreme values for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2100.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results demonstrated a clear difference between the hydrodynamic behaviour of the two estuaries. Model outcomes for the Minho estuary, which is dominated by the tide and therefore by oceanographic conditions, show a pronounced effect of rising sea levels on estuarine hydrodynamics. Whereas, for the Douro estuary, which is heavily dominated by the river flow, the effect of the sea level rise is hardly noticeable during flood events.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These and further results of this ongoing project are expected to (i) provide a complete hydrodynamic characterization of the two estuaries; (ii) evaluate future trends; (iii) estimate the flood risks associated with extreme events and (iv) demonstrate that the combined use of different models reduces their uncertainty and increases the confidence and consistency of the forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Acknowledgements: &lt;/strong&gt;To the Strategic Funding UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020 (FCT and ERDF) and to the project EsCo-Ensembles (PTDC/ECI-EGC/30877/2017, NORTE 2020, Portugal 2020, ERDF and FCT). The authors also want to acknowledge the data provided by EDP, IH and Confederaci&amp;#243;n Hidrogr&amp;#225;fica Mi&amp;#241;o-Sil.&lt;/p&gt;</jats:p

Racial inequities in tooth loss among older Brazilian adults: A decomposition analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which racial inequities in tooth loss and functional dentition are explained by individual socioeconomic status, smoking status and frequency/reason for the use of dental services. METHODS: Data came from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling people aged 50 years and over. Tooth loss and functional dentition (ie 20+ natural teeth) were the outcomes. The main explanatory variable was self-classified race. Covariates included dental visits in the past 12 months, dental visits for check-ups only, smoking status, self-reported chronic conditions, depression and cognitive function. Logistic regression and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis were used to estimate the share of each factor in race-related tooth loss inequities. RESULTS: The analytical sample comprised of 7126 respondents. While the prevalence of functional dentition in White Brazilians was 37% (95% CI: 33.5;40.9), it was 29% (95% CI: 26.4;31.6) among Browns and 30% (95% CI: 25.1;35.4) among Blacks. The average number of lost teeth among Whites, Browns and Blacks were 18.7 (95% CI: 17.8;19.6), 20.4 (95% CI: 19.7;21.1) and 20.8 (95% CI: 19.5;22.0), respectively. Decomposition analysis showed that the selected covariates explained 71% of the racial inequalities in tooth loss. Dental visits in the previous year and smoking status explained nearly half of race-related gaps. Other factors, such as per capita income, education and cognitive status, also had an important contribution to the examined inequalities. The proportion of racial inequities in tooth loss that was explained by dental visits (frequency and reason) and smoking status decreased from 40% for those 50-59 years of age to 22% among participants aged 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency and reason for dental visits and smoking status explained nearly half of the racial inequity in tooth loss among Brazilian older adults. The Brazilian Family Health Strategy Program should target older adults from racial groups living in deprived areas

The Mechanical Behavior of a 25Cr Super Duplex Stainless Steel at Elevated Temperature

Peer reviewedPostprin

Toothache and associated factors in Brazilian adults: a cross-sectional population-based study

Extent: 8p.Background: Toothache is a dental public health problem and one of the predictors of dental attendance and it is strongly associated with the life quality of individuals. In spite of this, there are few population-based epidemiological studies on this theme. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of toothache and associated factors in adults of Lages, Southern Brazil. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study was carried out in a sample of 2,022 adults aged 20 to 59 years living in the urban area of a medium sized city in Southern Brazil. A questionnaire including socioeconomic, demographic, smoking, alcohol, and use of dental service variables was applied at adults household. Toothache occurred six months previous of the interview was considered the outcome. Poisson regression analyses were performed following a theoretical hierarchical framework. All analysis was adjusted by the sample design effect. Results: The response rate was 98.6%. The prevalence of toothache was 18.0% (95% CI 16.0; 20.1). The following variables were associated with toothache after adjustment: female (PR = 1.3 95% CI 1.3; 2.0), black skin colour vs. whites (PR = 1.5 95% CI 1.1, 1.9), low per capita income (PR = 1.7 95% CI 1.2, 2.3), smokers (PR = 1.5 95% CI 1.2, 1.9) and those who reported alcohol problems (PR = 1.4 95% CI 1.1; 1.9). To be 40 years of age (PR = 0.5 95% CI 0.4, 0.7) and use dental service in the last year (RR = 0.5 95% CI 0.4, 0.6) were protective factors for toothache. Conclusion: The prevalence of toothache in adults of Lages can be considered a major problem of dental public health.Mirian Kuhnen, Marco A Peres, Anelise V Masiero and Karen G Pere

Contextual and individual assessment of dental pain period prevalence in adolescents: a multilevel approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite evidence that health and disease occur in social contexts, the vast majority of studies addressing dental pain exclusively assessed information gathered at individual level.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>To assess the association between dental pain and contextual and individual characteristics in Brazilian adolescents. In addition, we aimed to test whether contextual Human Development Index is independently associated with dental pain after adjusting for individual level variables of socio-demographics and dental characteristics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study used data from an oral health survey carried out in São Paulo, Brazil, which included dental pain, dental exams, individual socioeconomic and demographic conditions, and Human Development Index at area level of 4,249 12-year-old and 1,566 15-year-old schoolchildren. The Poisson multilevel analysis was performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Dental pain was found among 25.6% (95%CI = 24.5-26.7) of the adolescents and was 33% less prevalent among those living in more developed areas of the city than among those living in less developed areas. Girls, blacks, those whose parents earn low income and have low schooling, those studying at public schools, and those with dental treatment needs presented higher dental-pain prevalence than their counterparts. Area HDI remained associated with dental pain after adjusting for individual level variables of socio demographic and dental characteristics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Girls, students whose parents have low schooling, those with low <it>per capita </it>income, those classified as having black skin color and those with dental treatment needs had higher dental pain prevalence than their counterparts. Students from areas with low Human Development Index had higher prevalence of dental pain than those from the more developed areas regardless of individual characteristics.</p

Desigualdades contextuais e individuais da prevalencia de dor dentaria em adultos e idosos no Brasil

Abstract published in English and Portuguese English title: Contextual and individual inequalities in dental pain prevalence among Brazilian adults and eldersThis study aimed to assess the prevalence of dental pain among adults and older people living in Brazil’s State capitals. Information was gathered from the Telephone Survey Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) in 2009 (n = 54,367). Dental pain was the outcome. Geographic region, age, gender, race, schooling, private health coverage, smoking, and soft drink consumption were the explanatory variables. Multilevel Poisson regression models were performed. Prevalence of dental pain was 15.2%; Macapá and São Luís had prevalence rates greater than 20%; all capitals in the South and Southeast, plus Cuiabá, Campo Grande, Maceió, Recife, and Natal had prevalence rates less than 15%. Factors associated with increased prevalence of dental pain were the North and Northeast regions, female gender, black/brown skin color, lack of private health insurance, smoking, and soft drink consumption. Dental pain is a public health problem that should be monitored by health surveillance systems. = O objetivo deste estudo foi conhecer a prevalência de dor dentária e fatores associados em adultos e idosos residentes nas capitais brasileiras usando os dados do Sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico (VIGITEL), de 2009 (n = 54.367). Dor dentária foi a variável dependente. Macrorregião, idade, sexo, raça, escolaridade, posse de plano de saúde, tabagismo e consumo de refrigerantes foram as variáveis exploratórias. Foram realizadas regressões de Poisson multinível. A prevalência de dor dentária foi de 15,2%; Macapá e São Luís apresentaram prevalências maiores que 20% enquanto em todas as capitais do Sul e Sudeste, em Cuiabá, Campo Grande, Maceió, Recife e Natal foram encontradas prevalências menores que 15%. Residentes no Norte e Nordeste, mulheres, pretos e pardos, aqueles que não possuem plano de saúde, tabagistas e consumidores de refrigerantes apresentaram as maiores prevalências de dor dentária. A dor dentária é um problema de saúde pública que deve ser monitorado pelos sistemas de vigilância em saúde.Marco A. Peres, Betine Pinto Moehlecke Iser, Karen Glazer Peres, Deborah Carvalho Malta, José Leopoldo Ferreira Antune

Dor dentaria e fatores associados em adolescentes brasileiros: a Pesquia Nacional de Saude do Escolar (PeNSE), Brasil, 2009

Abstract published in English and Portuguese English title: Dental pain and associated factors in Brazilian adolescents: the National school-based health survey (PeNSE), Brazil, 2009The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of dental pain and associated socio-demographic and behavioral factors in Brazilian adolescents, using data from the National School-Based Health Survey (PeNSE), Brazil, 2009. The survey was conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and Ministry of Health in students 11 to 17 years of age or older in the 27 State capitals, using a self-administered questionnaire. Analyses included Poisson regression following a hierarchical approach. Prevalence of dental pain in the sample (n = 54,985) in the previous six months was 17.8% (95%CI: 17.5-18.1). Higher prevalence was associated with female gender, age 14 years and over, racial self-identification as black, brown, or indigenous, enrollment in public schools, lower maternal schooling, not living with the mother, history of smoking or drinking, less frequent toothbrushing, and heavy consumption of sweets and soft drinks. Dental pain was thus associated with socio-demographic factors and health-related behaviors. = O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a prevalência da dor de dente em adolescentes brasileiros e analisar fatores sociodemográficos e comportamentais associados, utilizando os dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar (PeNSE) de 2009. A pesquisa foi realizada pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e pelo Ministério da Saúde em escolares com idades entre 11 e 17 anos ou mais, das 27 capitais brasileiras, por meio de questionário autoaplicável. Utilizou-se a análise de regressão de Poisson, segundo um modelo hierárquico de determinação. A prevalência de dor na amostra (n = 54.985) nos últimos seis meses foi de 17,8% (IC95%: 17,5-18,1). Prevalências mais elevadas foram encontradas em mulheres, naqueles com 14 anos ou mais, das raças preta, parda e indígena, de escolas públicas, cujas mães tinham baixa escolaridade, que não moravam com a mãe, que haviam experimentado cigarro e álcool alguma vez na vida, que relataram menor frequência de escovação e maior consumo de guloseimas e refrigerantes. A prevalência de dor foi considerável e associada a aspectos sociodemográficos e de comportamentos relacionados à saúde.Maria do Carmo Matias Freire, Cláudio Rodrigues Leles, Luciana Monteiro Vasconcelos Sardinha, Moacir Paludetto Junior, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Marco A. Pere