Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Insufficient Rest or Sleep and Its Relation to Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes and Obesity in a National, Multiethnic Sample

BACKGROUND: A new question on insufficient rest/sleep was included in the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for the 50 states, District of Columbia, and three US territories. No previous study, however, has examined perceived insufficient rest/sleep in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes mellitus. We examined the association between self-reported insufficient rest/sleep and CVD, diabetes, and obesity in a contemporary sample of US adults. METHODS: Multiethnic, nationally representative, cross-sectional survey (2008 BRFSS) participants were >20 years of age (n=372, 144, 50% women). Self-reported insufficient rest/sleep in the previous month was categorized into four groups: zero, 1-13, 14-29, and 30 days. There were five outcomes: 1) any CVD, 2) coronary heart disease (CHD), 3) stroke, 4) diabetes mellitus, and 5) obesity (body mass index≥30 kg/m2). We employed multivariable logistic regression to calculate odds ratio (OR), (95% confidence interval (CI), of increasing categories of insufficient rest/sleep, taking zero days of insufficient rest/sleep as the referent category. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Insufficient rest/sleep was found to be associated with 1) any CVD, 2) CHD, 3) stroke, 4) diabetes mellitus, and 5) obesity, in separate analyses. Compared to those reporting zero days of insufficient sleep (referent), the OR (95% CI) associated with all 30 days of insufficient sleep was 1.67 (1.55-1.79) for any cardiovascular disease, 1.69(1.56-1.83) for CHD, 1.51(1.36-1.68) for stroke, 1.31(1.21-1.41) for diabetes, and 1.51 (1.43-1.59) for obesity. CONCLUSIONS: In a multiethnic sample of US adults, perceived insufficient rest/sleep was found to be independently associated with CHD, stroke, diabetes mellitus and obesity

Skin autofluorescence is increased in patients with carotid artery stenosis and peripheral artery disease

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) have a pivotal role in atherosclerosis. We evaluated skin autofluorescence (SAF), a non-invasive measurement of tissue AGE accumulation, in patients with carotid artery stenosis with and without coexisting peripheral artery occlusive disease (PAOD). SAF was measured using the AGE Reader™ in 56 patients with carotid artery stenosis and in 56 age- and sex-matched healthy controls without diabetes, renal dysfunction or known atherosclerotic disease. SAF was higher in patients with carotid artery stenosis compared to the control group: mean 2.81 versus 2.46 (P = 0.002), but especially in the younger age group of 50–60 years old: mean 2.82 versus 1.94 (P = 0.000). Patients with carotid artery stenosis and PAOD proved to have an even higher SAF than patients with carotid artery stenosis only: mean 3.28 versus 2.66 (P = 0.003). Backward linear regression analysis showed that age, smoking, diabetes mellitus, renal function and the presence of PAOD were the determinants of SAF, but carotid artery stenosis was not. SAF is increased in patients with carotid artery stenosis and PAOD. The univariate and multivariate associations of SAF with age, smoking, diabetes, renal insufficiency and PAOD suggest that increased SAF can be seen as an indicator of widespread atherosclerosis

Soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products in COPD: relationship with emphysema and chronic cor pulmonale: a case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) is a multiligand signal transduction receptor that can initiate and perpetuate inflammation. Its soluble isoform (sRAGE) acts as a decoy receptor for RAGE ligands, and is thought to afford protection against inflammation. With the present study, we aimed at determining whether circulating sRAGE is correlated with emphysema and chronic cor pulmonale in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 200 COPD patients and 201 age- and sex-matched controls, we measured lung function by spirometry, and sRAGE by ELISA method. We also measured the plasma levels of two RAGE ligands, N-epsilon-carboxymethyl lysine and S100A12, by ELISA method. In the COPD patients, we assessed the prevalence and severity of emphysema by computed tomography (CT), and the prevalence of chronic cor pulmonale by echocardiography. Multiple quantile regression was used to assess the effects of emphysema, chronic cor pulmonale, smoking history, and comorbid conditions on the three quartiles of sRAGE.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>sRAGE was significantly lower (p = 0.007) in COPD patients (median 652 pg/mL, interquartile range 484 to 1076 pg/mL) than in controls (median 869 pg/mL, interquartile range 601 to 1240 pg/mL), and was correlated with the severity of emphysema (p < 0.001), the lower the level of sRAGE the greater the degree of emphysema on CT. The relationship remained statistically significant after adjusting for smoking history and comorbid conditions. In addition, sRAGE was significantly lower in COPD patients with chronic cor pulmonale than in those without (p = 0.002). Such difference remained statistically significant after adjusting for smoking history, comorbidities, and emphysema severity. There was no significant difference in the plasma levels of the two RAGE ligands between cases and controls.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>sRAGE is significantly lower in patients with COPD than in age- and sex-matched individuals without airflow obstruction. Emphysema and chronic cor pulmonale are independent predictors of reduced sRAGE in COPD.</p

Immunoglobulin G: A Potential Treatment to Attenuate Neuroinflammation Following Spinal Cord Injury

# The Author(s) 2010. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Introduction Spinal cord injury (SCI) is caused by two related but mechanistically distinct events: the primary injury to the spinal cord is caused by a mechanic trauma; the secondary injury is a cascade of cellular and molecula

Factors associated with recurrence and survival length following relapse in patients with neuroblastoma

Background: Despite therapeutic advances, survival following relapse for neuroblastoma patients remains poor. We investigated clinical and biological factors associated with length of progression-free and overall survival following relapse in UK neuroblastoma patients. Methods: All cases of relapsed neuroblastoma, diagnosed during 1990-2010, were identified from four Paediatric Oncology principal treatment centres. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to calculate post-relapse overall survival (PROS), post-relapse progression-free survival (PRPFS) between relapse and further progression, and to investigate influencing factors. Results: One hundred eighty-nine cases were identified from case notes, 159 (84.0%) high risk and 17 (9.0%), unresectable, MYCN non-amplified (non-MNA) intermediate risk (IR). For high-risk patients diagnosed >2000, median PROS was 8.4 months (interquartile range (IQR)=3.0-17.4) and median PRPFS was 4.7 months (IQR=2.1-7.1). For IR, unresectable non-MNA patients, median PROS was 11.8 months (IQR 9.0-51.6) and 5-year PROS was 24% (95% CI 7-45%). MYCN amplified (MNA) disease and bone marrow metastases at diagnosis were independently associated with worse PROS for high-risk cases. Eighty percent of high-risk relapses occurred within 2 years of diagnosis compared with 50% of unresectable non-MNA IR disease. Conclusions: Patients with relapsed HR neuroblastomas should be treatment stratified according to MYCN status and PRPFS should be the primary endpoint in early phase clinical trials. The failure to salvage the majority of IR neuroblastoma is concerning, supporting investigation of intensification of upfront treatment regimens in this group to determine whether their use would diminish likelihood of relapse

Advanced glycation end-products, a pathophysiological pathway in the cardiorenal syndrome

The prevalence of heart failure (HF) is increasing. A distinction is made between diastolic HF (preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)) and systolic HF (reduced LVEF). Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) are crystallized proteins that accumulate during ageing, but are particularly increased in patients with diabetes mellitus and in patients with renal failure. Through the formation of collagen crosslinks, and by interaction with the AGE-receptor, which impairs calcium handling and increases fibrosis, AGE-accumulation has pathophysiologically been associated with the development of diastolic and renal dysfunction. Interestingly, diastolic dysfunction is a frequent finding in elderly patients, diabetic patients and in patients with renal failure. Taken together, this suggests that AGEs are related to the development and progression of diastolic HF and renal failure. In this review, the role of AGEs as a possible pathophysiological factor that link the development and progression of heart and renal failure, is discussed. Finally, the role of AGE intervention as a possible treatment in HF patients will be discussed

Precision engineering for PRRSV resistance in pigs: Macrophages from genome edited pigs lacking CD163 SRCR5 domain are fully resistant to both PRRSV genotypes while maintaining biological function

Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) is a panzootic infectious disease of pigs, causing major economic losses to the world-wide pig industry. PRRS manifests differently in pigs of all ages but primarily causes late-term abortions and stillbirths in sows and respiratory disease in piglets. The causative agent of the disease is the positive-strand RNA PRRS virus (PRRSV). PRRSV has a narrow host cell tropism, limited to cells of the monocyte/macrophage lineage. CD163 has been described as a fusion receptor for PRRSV, whereby the scavenger receptor cysteine-rich domain 5 (SRCR5) region was shown to be an interaction site for the virus in vitro. CD163 is expressed at high levels on the surface of macrophages, particularly in the respiratory system. Here we describe the application of CRISPR/Cas9 to pig zygotes, resulting in the generation of pigs with a deletion of Exon 7 of the CD163 gene, encoding SRCR5. Deletion of SRCR5 showed no adverse effects in pigs maintained under standard husbandry conditions with normal growth rates and complete blood counts observed. Pulmonary alveolar macrophages (PAMs) and peripheral blood monocytes (PBMCs) were isolated from the animals and assessed in vitro. Both PAMs and macrophages obtained from PBMCs by CSF1 stimulation (PMMs) show the characteristic differentiation and cell surface marker expression of macrophages of the respective origin. Expression and correct folding of the SRCR5 deletion CD163 on the surface of macrophages and biological activity of the protein as hemoglobin-haptoglobin scavenger was confirmed. Challenge of both PAMs and PMMs with PRRSV genotype 1, subtypes 1, 2, and 3 and PMMs with PRRSV genotype 2 showed complete resistance to viral infections assessed by replication. Confocal microscopy revealed the absence of replication structures in the SRCR5 CD163 deletion macrophages, indicating an inhibition of infection prior to gene expression, i.e. at entry/fusion or unpacking stages

A functional SNP in the regulatory region of the decay-accelerating factor gene associates with extraocular muscle pareses in myasthenia gravis

Complement activation in myasthenia gravis (MG) may damage muscle endplate and complement regulatory proteins such as decay-accelerating factor (DAF) or CD55 may be protective. We hypothesize that the increased prevalence of severe extraocular muscle (EOM) dysfunction among African MG subjects reported earlier may result from altered DAF expression. To test this hypothesis, we screened the DAF gene sequences relevant to the classical complement pathway and found an association between myasthenics with EOM paresis and the DAF regulatory region c.-198C>G SNP (odds ratio=8.6; P=0.0003). This single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) results in a twofold activation of a DAF 5′-flanking region luciferase reporter transfected into three different cell lines. Direct matching of the surrounding SNP sequence within the DAF regulatory region with the known transcription factor-binding sites suggests a loss of an Sp1-binding site. This was supported by the observation that the c.-198C>G SNP did not show the normal lipopolysaccharide-induced DAF transcriptional upregulation in lymphoblasts from four patients. Our findings suggest that at critical periods during autoimmune MG, this SNP may result in inadequate DAF upregulation with consequent complement-mediated EOM damage. Susceptible individuals may benefit from anti-complement therapy in addition to immunosuppression