Martingale Option Pricing

We show that our generalization of the Black-Scholes partial differential equation (pde) for nontrivial diffusion coefficients is equivalent to a Martingale in the risk neutral discounted stock price. Previously, this was proven for the case of the Gaussian logarithmic returns model by Harrison and Kreps, but we prove it for much a much larger class of returns models where the diffusion coefficient depends on both returns x and time t. That option prices blow up if fat tails in logarithmic returns x are included in the market dynamics is also explained

Anomalous diffusion and the Moses effect in a model of aging

We decompose the anomalous diffusive behavior found in a model of aging into its fundamental constitutive causes. The model process is a sum of increments that are iterates of a chaotic dynamical system, the Pomeau-Manneville map. The increments can have long-time correlations, fat-tailed distributions and be non-stationary. Each of these properties can cause anomalous diffusion through what is known as the Joseph, Noah and Moses effects, respectively. The model can have either sub- or super-diffusive behavior, which we find is generally due to a combination of the three effects. Scaling exponents quantifying each of the three constitutive effects are calculated using analytic methods and confirmed with numerical simulations. They are then related to the scaling of the distribution of the process through a scaling relation. Finally, the importance of the Moses effect in the anomalous diffusion of experimental systems is discussed.Comment: This is an author-created, un-copyedited version of an article accepted for publication in the New Journal of Physics. IOP Publishing Ltd is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this version of the manuscript or any version derived from it. The Version of Record is available online at https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/aaeea

Nonstationary Increments, Scaling Distributions, and Variable Diffusion Processes in Financial Markets

Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the distribution of fluctuations in returns. Empirical studies conducted over the last decade have reported that they arenon-Gaussian, scale in time, and have power-law(or fat) tails. However, because they use sliding interval methods of analysis, these studies implicitly assume that the underlying process has stationary increments. We explicitly show that this assumption is not valid for the Euro-Dollar exchange rate between 1999-2004. In addition, we find that fluctuations in returns of the exchange rate are uncorrelated and scale as power-laws for certain time intervals during each day. This behavior is consistent with a diffusive process with a diffusion coefficient that depends both on the time and the price change. Within scaling regions, we find that sliding interval methods can generate fat-tailed distributions as an artifact, and that the type of scaling reported in many previous studies does not exist.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

All scale-free networks are sparse

We study the realizability of scale free-networks with a given degree sequence, showing that the fraction of realizable sequences undergoes two first-order transitions at the values 0 and 2 of the power-law exponent. We substantiate this finding by analytical reasoning and by a numerical method, proposed here, based on extreme value arguments, which can be applied to any given degree distribution. Our results reveal a fundamental reason why large scale-free networks without constraints on minimum and maximum degree must be sparse.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Eigenvalue Separation in Some Random Matrix Models

The eigenvalue density for members of the Gaussian orthogonal and unitary ensembles follows the Wigner semi-circle law. If the Gaussian entries are all shifted by a constant amount c/Sqrt(2N), where N is the size of the matrix, in the large N limit a single eigenvalue will separate from the support of the Wigner semi-circle provided c > 1. In this study, using an asymptotic analysis of the secular equation for the eigenvalue condition, we compare this effect to analogous effects occurring in general variance Wishart matrices and matrices from the shifted mean chiral ensemble. We undertake an analogous comparative study of eigenvalue separation properties when the size of the matrices are fixed and c goes to infinity, and higher rank analogues of this setting. This is done using exact expressions for eigenvalue probability densities in terms of generalized hypergeometric functions, and using the interpretation of the latter as a Green function in the Dyson Brownian motion model. For the shifted mean Gaussian unitary ensemble and its analogues an alternative approach is to use exact expressions for the correlation functions in terms of classical orthogonal polynomials and associated multiple generalizations. By using these exact expressions to compute and plot the eigenvalue density, illustrations of the various eigenvalue separation effects are obtained.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures include