The surface climatology of the eastern Mediterranean region obtained in a three-member ensemble climate change simulation experiment

International audienceTwo configurations of RegCM3 regional climate model (RCM) have been used to downscale results of two atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations of the current (1961?1990) and future climates (2071?2100) over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region. The RCM domain covering the EM region from northern Africa to central part of Asia Minor with grid spacing of 50 km was used. Three sets of RCM simulations were completed. Results of the RCM experiment support earlier projections of a temperature (annual precipitation) increase (decrease) to the end of 21st century over the EM. The roles of several major factors in controlling uncertainty of the climate change estimates are evaluated. The main uncertainty factors appear to be associated with possible inadequacies in RCM description of the EM-climate-controlling developments over remotely located areas as well as those in the simulations of the global climate and its trends by the AOGCMs

Fredholm Modules on P.C.F. Self-Similar Fractals and their Conformal Geometry

The aim of the present work is to show how, using the differential calculus associated to Dirichlet forms, it is possible to construct Fredholm modules on post critically finite fractals by regular harmonic structures. The modules are d-summable, the summability exponent d coinciding with the spectral dimension of the generalized laplacian operator associated with the regular harmonic structures. The characteristic tools of the noncommutative infinitesimal calculus allow to define a d-energy functional which is shown to be a self-similar conformal invariant.Comment: 16 page

Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: Analysis of the gems case-control study and 12-month gems-1a follow-on study

Background: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes.Methods: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens.Findings: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p\u3c0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death.Interpretation: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mirror duality and noncommutative tori

In this paper, we study a mirror duality on a generalized complex torus and a noncommutative complex torus. First, we derive a symplectic version of Riemann condition using mirror duality on ordinary complex tori. Based on this we will find a mirror correspondence on generalized complex tori and generalize the mirror duality on complex tori to the case of noncommutative complex tori.Comment: 22pages, no figure

Household modifications after the indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaign in Mozambique reduce the actual spray coverage and efficacy

Indoor residual spraying of insecticides (IRS) is a key malaria vector control strategy. Whilst human attitude towards IRS is monitored before or shortly after implementation, human activities leading to the modification of insecticide-treated walls post-IRS are not. This could inadvertently reduce the protective effects of IRS. We monitored the extent of modifications to the sprayed indoor wall surfaces by household owners for six months post-IRS campaigns in two districts targeted for malaria elimination in southern Mozambique. In parallel, we assessed building of any additional rooms onto compounds, and mosquito net use. We quantified the contribution of wall modifications, added rooms, prolonged spray campaigns, and product residual efficacies on actual IRS coverage and relative mosquito bite reduction, using a mechanistic approach. Household owners continually modified insecticide-treated walls and added rooms onto compounds. Household surveys in southern Mozambique showed frequent modification of indoor walls (0–17.2% of households modified rooms monthly) and/or added rooms (0–16.2% of households added rooms monthly). Actual IRS coverage reduced from an assumed 97% to just 39% in Matutuine, but only from 96% to 91% in Boane, translating to 43% and 5.8% estimated increases in relative daily mosquito bites per person. Integrating post-IRS knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) surveys into programmatic evaluations to capture these modification and construction trends can help improve IRS program efficiency and product assessment

Anisotropic optical properties of single-crystal GdBa2Cu3O7-delta

The optical spectrum of reduced-T(c) GdBa2Cu3O7-delta has been measured for polarizations parallel and perpendicular to the ab plane. The sample was an oxygen-deficient single crystal with a large face containing the c axis. The polarized reflectance from this face was measured from 20-300 K in the spectral region from 30-3000 cm-1, with 300 K data to 30 000 cm-1. Kramers-Kronig analysis was used to determine the spectral dependence of the ab and the c components of the dielectric tensor. The optical properties are strongly anisotropic. The ab-plane response resembles that of other reduced-T(c) materials whereas the c axis, in contrast, shows only the presence of several phonons. There is a complete absence of charge carrier response along c above and below T(c). This observation allows us to set an upper limit to the free-carrier spectral weight for transport perpendicular to the CuO2 planes

Energy-Sensitive and "Classical-like" Distances Between Quantum States

We introduce the concept of the ``polarized'' distance, which distinguishes the orthogonal states with different energies. We also give new inequalities for the known Hilbert-Schmidt distance between neighbouring states and express this distance in terms of the quasiprobability distributions and the normally ordered moments. Besides, we discuss the distance problem in the framework of the recently proposed ``classical-like'' formulation of quantum mechanics, based on the symplectic tomography scheme. The examples of the Fock, coherent, ``Schroedinger cats,'' squeezed, phase, and thermal states are considered.Comment: 23 pages, LaTex, 2 eps figures, to appear in Physica Script

Prevalence and Predictors of Urinary Tract Infection and Severe Malaria Among Febrile Children Attending Makongoro Health Centre in Mwanza City, North-Western Tanzania.

In malaria endemic areas, fever has been used as an entry point for presumptive treatment of malaria. At present, the decrease in malaria transmission in Africa implies an increase in febrile illnesses related to other causes among underfives. Moreover, it is estimated that more than half of the children presenting with fever to public clinics in Africa do not have a malaria infection. Thus, for a better management of all febrile illnesses among under-fives, it becomes relevant to understand the underlying aetiology of the illness. The present study was conducted to determine the relative prevalence and predictors of P. falciparum malaria, urinary tract infections and bacteremia among under-fives presenting with a febrile illness at the Makongoro Primary Health Centre, North-Western Tanzania. From February to June 2011, a cross-sectional analytical survey was conducted among febrile children less than five years of age. Demographic and clinical data were collected using a standardized pre-tested questionnaire. Blood and urine culture was done, followed by the identification of isolates using in-house biochemical methods. Susceptibility patterns to commonly used antibiotics were investigated using the disc diffusion method. Giemsa stained thin and thick blood smears were examined for any malaria parasites stages. A total of 231 febrile under-fives were enrolled in the study. Of all the children, 20.3% (47/231, 95%CI, 15.10-25.48), 9.5% (22/231, 95%CI, 5.72-13.28) and 7.4% (17/231, 95%CI, 4.00-10.8) had urinary tract infections, P. falciparum malaria and bacteremia respectively. In general, 11.5% (10/87, 95%CI, 8.10-14.90) of the children had two infections and only one child had all three infections. Predictors of urinary tract infections (UTI) were dysuria (OR = 12.51, 95% CI, 4.28-36.57, P < 0.001) and body temperature (40-41 C) (OR = 12.54, 95% CI, 4.28-36.73, P < 0.001). Predictors of P. falciparum severe malaria were pallor (OR = 4.66 95%CI, 1.21-17.8, P = 0.025) and convulsion (OR = 102, 95% CI, 10-996, P = 0.001). Escherichia coli were the common gram negative isolates from urine (72.3%, 95% CI, 66.50-78.10) and blood (40%, 95%CI, and 33.70-46.30). Escherichia coli from urine were 100% resistant to ampicillin, 97% resistant to co-trimoxazole, 85% resistant to augmentin and 32.4% resistant to gentamicin; and they were 100%, 91.2% and 73.5% sensitive to meropenem, ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone respectively. Urinary tract infection caused by multi drug resistant Escherichia coli was the common cause of febrile illness in our setting. Improvement of malaria diagnosis and its differential diagnosis from other causes of febrile illnesses may provide effective management of febrile illnesses among children in Tanzania