Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach

Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance. The inclusion of an Okun’s Law relation is particularly valuable. We estimate the NAIRU as an unobserved component in a state-space model and show that using multiple indicators reduces both parametric uncertainty and filtering uncertainty. Additionally, our multivariate approach overcomes the “pile-up” problem observed by other investigators.

Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach

Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance. The inclusion of an Okun’s Law relation is particularly valuable. We estimate the NAIRU as an unobserved component in a state-space model and show that using multiple indicators reduces both parametric uncertainty and filtering uncertainty. Additionally, our multivariate approach overcomes the “pile-up†problem observed by other investigatorsNAIRU, parametric uncertainty, filtering uncertainty

Why Were Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Smaller in the 1990s?

In this paper, we identify two major changes in the dynamics of the federal funds rate in the 1990s. We model the desired rate in a two-regime setting, one when the Fed makes no change and the other when the Fed is moving the desired rate to a new level. We find that the 1990s saw longer duration in the no-change regime as well as smaller changes in the other regime. We show the smaller changes were neither due to a less aggressive Fed nor due to lower volatility of the fundamentals. In fact, the Fed responded more aggressively to changes in fundamentals in the 1990s. The results also suggest that the Fed became more forward-looking in the last decade.

Foreign aid and export performance: a panel data analysis of developing countries

The effect of foreign aid on economic activity of a country can be dampened due to potentially adverse effects on exports through a real exchange rate appreciation. In this study we examine the long-term relationship between export performance and foreign aid in developing countries while accounting for other factors. The estimates of direct effect of foreign aid on exports are imprecise. However, the effect of the quadratic term of foreign aid on exports is negative and precise. This implies large amount of foreign aid does adversely affect export performance. The results are robust to the use of two different export performance measures and different sub-samples.Developing countries - Economic conditions ; Exports

Field screening of rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes for resistance to bacterial leaf blight (Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae) disease

Rice is the most important crop in Nepal followed by maize and wheat in terms of area (1.4 million ha), production (5.15 million) and productivity (3.5 mt/ha). Bacterial leaf blight (BLB), caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae is considered to be the most widespread and destructive disease of rice in both irrigated and rainfed environments in Nepal. Use of host plant resistance is the most feasible and economical way to combat this disease. However, breakdown of resistance of a variety often occurs after few years of release due to genetic adaptation of the pathogen. Regular screening of the genotypes is utmost for developing the resistant genotypes. Considering the point, this investigation effort has been made to screen the rice genotypes against BLB under natural field condition at Khajura, Banke during 2018 and 2019. In the study, plants were assessed by measuring disease severity (percentage of leaf diseased) and area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC). Differences in resistance among the rice genotypes were observed in both of the tested year. Among the screened 150 rice genotypes during 2018, 6 genotypes scored resistant (R), 81 moderately resistant (MR), 59 moderately susceptible (MS) and 4 susceptible (S) to BLB. Whereas, in 2019, among the tested 315 rice genotypes, none of the genotypes were resistant, 183 MR, 131 MS and 1 S to BLB disease. This showed that the tested genotypes were composed of different genetic background. &nbsp

Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data

In this study we use monthly G7 industrial production data, commodity price index data, and commodity currency exchange rate data in a dynamic factor model to examine the global economic factors useful for commodity price prediction. We differentiate between the dynamic factors by specifying a persistent factor and a non-persistent factor, both as a single global factor using all data and as factors for each category of data. The in-sample predictive performances of the three persistent factors together are better than the non-persistent factors and the single global factors. Out-of-sample outcomes based on forecast combinations also support the presence of predictive information in the persistent factors for overall commodity prices and for most sub-categories of commodity price indexes relative to their means. The gains in forecast accuracy are heterogeneous; ranging from 5 to 7 percent in the 1 to 6 months horizon for the overall commodity prices to a high of around 20 percent for fertilizers in the 12 month horizon in the recent sample. We further show that the information in the persistent factors, especially in the commodity currency exchange rate based persistent factor, can be integrated with other global measures to further improve the predictive performances of the global measures

Technical efficiency of potato production in mid western terai region of Nepal

A study was done in 2018 to estimate the technical efficiency of potato production in mid western terai region of Nepal.30 households each from Dang, Banke and Bardiya districts were interviewed. Maximum likelihood estimate of the parameter showed the mean technical efficiency of 0.79 which indicated a high scope of increasing the production with the improvement of production technology. The coefficient for the parameter seed, Urea, DAP, MOP and labour were positive contributing for the production of potato. The parameter Compost, pesticides, herbicides and hour of tractor use were negative. The use of these input could be improved for increasing the production of potato. The farm specific variables Education, contact with the extension agent and farm size showed negative coefficient which causes less inefficiency of the farmers in production of potato while the coefficient for Age was estimated to be positive

A special sequence and primorial numbers

In this paper, we study a class of functions defined recursively on the set of natural numbers in terms of the greatest common divisor algorithm of two numbers and requiring a minimality condition. These functions are permutations, products of infinitely many cycles that depend on certain breaks in the natural numbers that involve the primes and some special products of primes that have a density of approximately 29.4%. Knowing more about the main class of these functions may bring efficient ways in detecting the primality of a given positive integer.Comment: 12 pages and 2 figure

Performance of black gram varieties to mungbean yellow mosaic disease at different sowing dates under spring and summer condition in western terai of Nepal

A field experiment was conducted at Grain Legumes Research Program (GLRP), Khajura, Banke, Nepal during spring and summer season 2019 to elucidate the effect of date of sowing and blackgram varieties on mungbean yellow mosaic disease severity and yield. The experiment was conducted in 2 factorial randomized complete block design with 3 replications. Factor A comprised date of sowing (S1= 5th April 2019, S2= 20th April 2019, S3= 5th May 2019, S4= 20th May 2019, S5= 25th July 2019, S6= 10th August 2019, S7= 25th August 2019 and S8= 10th September 2019) and factor B (Variety): V1= Khajura Mas 1 and V2= Rampur Mas. Disease severity was scored in 1-6 scale. Results revealed that mean values for days to disease appearance, disease score and grain yield in spring season sowing was 26 days, 3.72 and 635 kg/ha, whereas for summer season sowing was 14 days, 5.04 and 185 kg/ha.  Among the date of sowing, April 5th sown crop recorded minimum mean disease score (3.1) with highest yield (719 kg/ha). Whereas, September 10th sown crop recorded maximum mean disease score (5.1) with lowest yield (174 kg/ha). Black gram varieties showed significant response to mean disease score and yield at early sowing condition but when the sowing date was delayed, there was no significant response of varieties to mean disease score and yield. The contribution of regression (R2 =0.791) and (R2 = 0.655) for spring season and summer season indicate that 79% and 65% of the blackgram yield would be affected by disease for the respective season. Therefore, it is better to sow blackgram in early season to escape mungbean yellow mosaic disease and minimize yield loss