Dam breach parameters and their influence on flood hydrographs for Mosul dam

Dams breach geometry prediction is crucial in dam break studies. The characteristics of flood hydrographs resulting from a dam breach essentially depend on the breach geometry and the required time for breach formation. To investigate the impact of breach parameters on maximum breaching outflows, five breach prediction approaches were implemented to calculate the flood hydrographs using HEC-RAS model, for Mosul dam. Numerous reservoir water levels for each approach were considered. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of each parameter on the resulting flood hydrographs. The time and value of peak discharge for each scenario were analysed and discussed. Results show that the most suitable method for estimating breach parameters for Mosul dam was the Froehlich approach. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows that the breach side slope does not affect the peak discharge time and has a minor influence on peak outflow values. Meanwhile, the required time for the breach to develop was highly sensitive to both peak discharge and peak discharge time

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Simulation of mosul dam breaks using basement model

Dams have been constructed for many purposes such as water supply, flood control, irrigation, and hydropower generation. They provide numerous benefits to civilization; however, floods resulting from a dam break could lead to tremendous loss of lives and properties. Mosul Dam, the largest dam in Iraq, is located in the northwestern part of the country. The problem of Mosul Dam is the continuous corrosion in the dam foundations that contain gypsum and anhydrite formations, which dissolve under the effect of storing water in the reservoir. According to the US Army Corps of Engineers 2006 report “in terms of internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world”. The main objectives of this research were to predict the flood occurrence after the probable Mosul Dam break and develop maps of the downstream flooded areas to identify the zones under potential risk in Mosul city. Dam break studies depend on three primary tasks mainly; predicting the breach parameters, estimating the breach flood hydrograph and routing this hydrograph downstream of the dam site. In this study, five breach prediction approaches were implemented to predict the breach geometry and the required time for breach formation. In addition to that, overtopping and piping failure modes were considered. For each approach, eight reservoir water levels, ranging from minimum operation level to maximum storage level with 5 m intervals, were studied. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of breach parameters on the resulting flood hydrographs. The topography of the study area was demonstrated using a 30 m × 30 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM). In this study, the downstream flood propagation of the Mosul Dam break was simulated using the two-dimensional BASEMENT version 2.5.3 numerical model. The numerical model was utilized to the Tigris River between Mosul Dam and south of Mosul city along 87.8 km. The breach flood hydrographs for each scenario were analyzed and discussed. The results show that the overtopping failure mode tends to give higher peak discharge values than the piping failure mode by 1.8 to 19.6% in case of 330 and 300 m reservoir water levels, respectively. In addition, results indicate that the most suitable method for estimating breach parameters for large dams was the Froehlich (2008) approach. Furthermore, for large dams, such as Mosul dam, the sensitivity analysis shows that the breach side slope does not affect the peak discharge time and has a minor influence on peak outflow values. Meanwhile, the required time for the breach to develop was highly sensitive to both peak discharge and peak discharge time. For instance, increasing breach formation time by 50% led to decreasing peak discharge by 19.19% and shifted the peak discharge time from 6 hours to 9.5 hours. Based on the simulation results, indicative inundation maps for multiple scenarios have been presented in this study. The time lag between the start of the failure of Mosul dam and arrival of the peak flow to Mosul city for all cases were stated. In addition to that, the flood peak discharge, peak water level, and lag time of peak discharge along the Tigris River reach for various values of reservoir water level were specified and analyzed. A new empirical model relates the maximum wave depth along the main stream with the initial condition of the reservoir and the breach dimension has been developed. This new empirical model is highly significant in estimating the maximum flood depth as compared to the simulation results using BASEMENT model

Improving pitting corrosion resistance of the commercial titanium through graphene oxide-titanium oxide composite

Titanium oxide has been commonly used for wide range of applications due to excellent corrosion resistance. This study presents the impact of graphene oxide (GO) addition to titanium oxide as coating materials during titanium anodization process on the corrosion behaviour. The GO was prepared by electrochemical exfoliation using low voltage mode in a sodium sulphate electrolyte, which is easier and more environmentally friendly compared to the chemical approach. Raman and scanning electron microscope were used to examine the success of the exfoliation process. The surface morphologies and potentiodynamic polarization results indicate that the addition of GO significantly inhibit the pitting corrosion and stabilize passivation current densities over wide ranges of anodic potentials. The untreated titanium, however, noticeably displayed fluctuation of anodic current densities, confirming the presence of pitting corrosion. The results obtained by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) also confirm that the addition of GO enhanced corrosion protection even at higher frequency ranges. The cyclic polarization scan results show a positive shift in the re-passivation potential Erep after the addition of GO. This work emphasizes that the addition of GO during anodization of titanium not only protect its surface from pitting corrosion but also provide a strong passive layer

DAM BREACH PARAMETERS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS FOR MOSUL DAM

Dams breach geometry prediction is crucial in dam break studies. The characteristics of flood hydrographs resulting from a dam breach essentially depend on the breach geometry and the required time for breach formation. To investigate the impact of breach parameters on maximum breaching outflows, five breach prediction approaches were implemented to calculate the flood hydrographs using HEC-RAS model, for Mosul dam. Numerous reservoir water levels for each approach were considered. ensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of each parameter on the resulting flood hydrographs. The time and value of peak discharge for each scenario were analysed and discussed. Results show that the most suitable method for estimating breach parameters for Mosul dam was the Froehlich approach. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows that the breach side slope does not affect the peak discharge time and has a minor influence on peak outflow values. Meanwhile, the required time for the breach to develop was highly sensitive to both peak discharge and peak discharge time

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research