Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect Revisited

We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between 1879 and 1913. A deflationary regime prior to 1896 was followed by an inflationary one from 1896 until the beginning of World War I; the average inflation rate was 3.8 percentage points higher in the second period than in the first. Yet nominal interest rates were no higher after 1896 than they had been before. This nonadjustment of nominal interest rates would be consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial correlation in inflation. However, inflation was forecastable on the basis of lagged gold production. Investors' expectations of inflation should have risen by at least three percentage points in the United States between 1890 and 1910. We consider in an information processing context alternative ways of accounting for this failure of interest rates to adjust, for example the possible beliefs that increases in gold production might be transitory. We conclude that the failure of investors to exhibit foresight with regard to the shift in the trend inflation rate after 1896 is not persuasive evidence that investors were negligent or naive in processing information.

Clinical application of somatosensory amplification in psychosomatic medicine

Many patients with somatoform disorders are frequently encountered in psychosomatic clinics as well as in primary care clinics. To assess such patients objectively, the concept of somatosensory amplification may be useful. Somatosensory amplification refers to the tendency to experience a somatic sensation as intense, noxious, and disturbing. It may have a role in a variety of medical conditions characterized by somatic symptoms that are disproportionate to demonstrable organ pathology. It may also explain some of the variability in somatic symptomatology found among different patients with the same serious medical disorder. It has been assessed with a self-report questionnaire, the Somatosensory Amplification Scale. This instrument was developed in a clinical setting in the U.S., and the reliability and validity of the Japanese and Turkish versions have been confirmed as well

Overdue Diligence: Questioning the Promise, Not the Premise, of Analytics

The number of emerging business technologies and the possibilities about the impact they will have on business performance seem endless. Naturally, all companies want more competitiveness and profitability. Thus, if new technology such as big data analytics can deliver superior performance, we might ask why they should not invest in data scientists, algorithms, and excellence centers. However, Gartner (2017) has reported that over 85 percent of big data analytics projects fail. A recent McKinsey survey found that only eight percent of respondent organizations have been able to scale analytics beyond limited and isolated cases (Fleming et al., 2018). We conducted a root cause analysis to examine why so many analytics projects fail. We discovered that we could group the reasons why these projects fail into at least six categories: data causes, modeling causes, tools causes, talent causes, management causes, and culture causes

Bulk and Interfacial Shear Thinning of Immiscible Polymers

Nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations are used to study the shear thinning behavior of immiscible symmetric polymer blends. The phase separated polymers are subjected to a simple shear flow imposed by moving a wall parallel to the fluid-fluid interface. The viscosity begins to shear thin at much lower rates in the bulk than at the interface. The entire shear rate dependence of the interfacial viscosity is consistent with a shorter effective chain length $s^*$ that also describes the width of the interface. This $s^*$ is independent of chain length $N$ and is a function only of the degree of immiscibility of the two polymers. Changes in polymer conformation are studied as a function of position and shear rate.Shear thinning correlates more closely with a decrease in the component of the radius of gyration along the velocity gradient than with elongation along the flow. At the interface, this contraction of chains is independent of $N$ and consistent with the bulk behavior for chains of length $s^*$. The distribution of conformational changes along chains is also studied. Central regions begin to stretch at a shear rate that decreases with increasing $N$, while shear induced changes at the ends of chains are independent of $N$.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figure

Mapping the Road from Childhood Trauma to Adult Somatization: The Role of Attachment

Objective: This study tested whether insecure attachment mediates the link between childhood trauma and adult somatization. Methods: A community sample of 101 couples completed self-report measures including the Relationship Scales Questionnaire, the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, the Somatic Symptom Inventory, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Conflict Tactics Scale. Results: Childhood trauma was associated with higher levels of somatization and insecure attachment. Insecure attachment style was also associated with higher levels of somatization. Controlling for age, income, and recent intimate partner violence, analyses showed that fearful attachment fully mediated the link between childhood trauma and somatization for women. For men there was no such mediation, but both childhood trauma and insecure attachment styles made independent contributions to predicting levels of somatization. Conclusions: Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that, for women, childhood trauma influences adult levels of somatization by fostering insecure adult attachment. For men, findings suggest that trauma and attachment are both important independent predictors of adult somatization. Study results support the idea that childhood trauma shapes patients’ styles of relating to others in times of need and these styles in turn influence the somatization process and how patients respond to providers. Screening for attachment style may provide information that could allow health care providers to tailor treatment more effectively. Key words: Attachment style, somatization, childhood trauma, interpersonal models. Abbreviations: CTQ = Childhood Trauma Questionnaire; CTS2 = Conflict Tactics Scale version 2; SSI = Somatic Symptom Inventory; RSQ = Relationship Scales Questionnaire; BDI = Beck Depression Inventory

Mapping the Road from Childhood Trauma to Adult Somatization: The Role of Attachment

Objective: This study tested whether insecure attachment mediates the link between childhood trauma and adult somatization. Methods: A community sample of 101 couples completed self-report measures including the Relationship Scales Questionnaire, the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, the Somatic Symptom Inventory, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Conflict Tactics Scale. Results: Childhood trauma was associated with higher levels of somatization and insecure attachment. Insecure attachment style was also associated with higher levels of somatization. Controlling for age, income, and recent intimate partner violence, analyses showed that fearful attachment fully mediated the link between childhood trauma and somatization for women. For men there was no such mediation, but both childhood trauma and insecure attachment styles made independent contributions to predicting levels of somatization. Conclusions: Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that, for women, childhood trauma influences adult levels of somatization by fostering insecure adult attachment. For men, findings suggest that trauma and attachment are both important independent predictors of adult somatization. Study results support the idea that childhood trauma shapes patients’ styles of relating to others in times of need and these styles in turn influence the somatization process and how patients respond to providers. Screening for attachment style may provide information that could allow health care providers to tailor treatment more effectively. Key words: Attachment style, somatization, childhood trauma, interpersonal models. Abbreviations: CTQ = Childhood Trauma Questionnaire; CTS2 = Conflict Tactics Scale version 2; SSI = Somatic Symptom Inventory; RSQ = Relationship Scales Questionnaire; BDI = Beck Depression Inventory

Castle Hall Academy: A Case Study In Non-Profit Accounting Mismanagement

This case requires you to resolve financial reporting deficiencies that arise in the audit of a not-for-profit entity, a prestigious private high school.  This case is based on the actual experience that an audit firm had with a not-for-profit client.  The primary reporting issues in the case relate to investments, contributions, severance packages, and leases that arise due to school management’s failure to consider recent accounting pronouncements.  By completing this case, you will learn about standards that affect not-for-profit entities and how auditors resolve differences with clients.  The decisions that you make require an understanding of technical knowledge of topics covered in typical intermediate accounting courses.  In addition, the case requires you to integrate accounting theory with the practice of auditing.  The premise for the case is that in order to be a successful auditor, you will need a good understanding of your client’s business as well as technical accounting issues